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February Banter Thread - The SQL - February 21-31st


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I don't think the euro means much at this point. It will prob look the same. And even if it has noticeably more or less it's just noise.

We already know where this is going within an inch or 2 either way depending on location. If I get less than 6 or more than 8 I'll be a little surprised

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Who the eff were most of those people? We are snowing at 17 degrees or so area-wide, and have a legit shot at half a foot. In march. And some people were acting like this was a massive bust. Just terrible. What we are getting has been well modeled for days. I guess if people were hoping for 15 inches that might explain it, but, really, overall pisspoor.

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Who the eff were most of those people? We are snowing at 17 degrees or so area-wide, and have a legit shot at half a foot. In march. And some people were acting like this was a massive bust. Just terrible. What we are getting has been well modeled for days. I guess if people were hoping for 15 inches that might explain it, but, really, overall pisspoor.

We had a couple crushing Euro runs, as well as support from other guidance here and there, so I fully understand a little disappointment in what looks to be the likely outcome.

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We had a couple crushing Euro runs, as well as support from other guidance here and there, so I fully understand a little disappointment in what looks to be the likely outcome.

Those were nice, but there was hardly ever any support for them. What there was support for was what we are seeing. Expectations were best set where we are. This is a pretty great event as is.

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I'm pretty sure the blades of our heat pump got ice on them from the rain that froze followed by sleet.  When it just kicked on, it was shaking violently.    :axe:  Anyone else ever get ice on theirs?  I may try pouring boiling water on the blades to melt the ice.

 

That happened to one of my truck tires during the blizzards in 2010.  I thought I had hit something it was shaking so bad.  I'm not sure how to handle your heat pump.

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Those were nice, but there was hardly ever any support for them. What there was support for was what we are seeing. Expectations were best set where we are. This is a pretty great event as is.

I'm with you. Yeah we won't see ten but it gets pretty annoying hearing ppl complain about 4+ of white smoke.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Those were nice, but there was hardly ever any support for them. What there was support for was what we are seeing. Expectations were best set where we are. This is a pretty great event as is.

Anyone expecting double digit snowfall set their expectations way too high, but I don't think expecting 6-7" (for MBY and points south) was that big a reach. Based on current trends, I don't think we quite reach those numbers, though the event is not over, so we'll see. The Euro had multiple runs of a widespread 8-10," and the GFS had a few runs with 8-9" as well (albeit not since Saturday). It's not like we were relying on one run of the NAM at 84 hours or the JMA.

 

I'm not complaining--It's not a horrific bust or anything, and it's still a pretty decent storm. But if we don't reach 6," there is definitely some reason to be a little disappointed based on guidance over the past few days (though maybe not at the level some are taking it to).

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I'm with you. Yeah we won't see ten but it gets pretty annoying hearing ppl complain about 4+ of white smoke.

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It's easy to predict who will be the first to complain every storm. Everyone should take Leesburg's advice and enjoy the snow that's falling instead of fretting that some town 40 miles from you has 0.75" more or the back end is approaching 15 minutes earlier than forecast.

Tine for me to stay out of the obs thread and watch Netflix instead. :)

Enjoy the snow!

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Anyone expecting double digit snowfall set their expectations way too high, but I don't think expecting 6-7" (for MBY and points south) was that big a reach. Based on current trends, I don't think we quite reach those numbers, though the event is not over, so we'll see. The Euro had multiple runs of a widespread 8-10," and the GFS had a few runs with 8-9" as well (albeit not since Saturday). It's not like we were relying on one run of the NAM at 84 hours or the JMA.

 

I'm not complaining--It's not a horrific bust or anything, and it's still a pretty decent storm. But if we don't reach 6," there is definitely some reason to be a little disappointed based on guidance over the past few days (though maybe not at the level some are taking it to).

Agreed 100%.

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As soon as I woke up and looked at radar I knew this was going to be a 3-6 type of storm. I was told that was incorrect. Sure looks like its going to verify to me. Radar is drying out up towards the Hagerstown area with the very low dews. I would love to be proven wrong. MBY looks good for about 4-5". I'm nearing 3 now.

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I just don't get this whole "you should enjoy whatever is falling and stop complaining about bust" thing. Why are we talking about models for hundreds of pages then? Last night there was almost unanimous model consensus that 6-8 was a lock for DC metro. And now we should be lucky if we hit 5". The snow is fine and all, but that's about it. Nothing impressive with this storm other than it's happening late in season. 

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Agreed 100%.

 

 

I just don't get this whole "you should enjoy whatever is falling and stop complaining about bust" thing. Why are we talking about models for hundreds of pages then? Last night there was almost unanimous model consensus that 6-8 was a lock for DC metro. And now we should be lucky if we hit 5". The snow is fine and all, but that's about it. Nothing impressive with this storm other than it's happening late in season. 

 

Yeah, the "everything is perfect, just enjoy it, it's snowing and it's cold!!!" posts are kind of funny. I agree we should enjoy what it is falling, and I'll take a 4-5" storm any day, but we don't need to sugar-coat reality either: when all is said and done, this one will likely be an under-performer for much of the area.  ;)

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I just don't get this whole "you should enjoy whatever is falling and stop complaining about bust" thing. Why are we talking about models for hundreds of pages then? Last night there was almost unanimous model consensus that 6-8 was a lock for DC metro. And now we should be lucky if we hit 5". The snow is fine and all, but that's about it. Nothing impressive with this storm other than it's happening late in season. 

 

I guess as somewhat of an outsider looking in, but also a weather buff practically since I could breathe, I find many of the forecasters here in the mid-Atlantic spend way too much time hugging positive models, and not nearly enough time adjusting for our region's climo.

 

LWX seems especially terrible on that lately for some reason. I've lived down here for 17 years and sometimes I can't believe what I'm hearing from people who should know better, especially regarding the impact of marginal surface temperatures and the like.

 

That said, still expecting 5+ from this one hopefully as long as the dry push doesn't take hold before the system pushes through.

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Climo wasn't the reason this is busting low. Try again. "Climo" around here isn't cold air push from hell sucking the moisture out of the air in early March. 

 

Speaking of climo generally and the forecasts that repeatedly bust around here. That said, the probability of a storm dropping greater than six inches in DC in early March is extremely low, especially if the storm is not developing as a traditional "big one" for our area. It's simply a very rare event. That's reality.

 

I just can't believe this sort of thing isn't part of what a forecaster considers when producing a forecast. A forecast is a lot more than just looking at models.

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Speaking of climo generally and the forecasts that repeatedly bust around here. That said, the probability of a storm dropping greater than six inches in DC in early March is extremely low, especially if the storm is not developing as a traditional "big one" for our area. It's simply a very rare event. That's reality.

 

I just can't believe this sort of thing isn't part of what a forecaster considers when producing a forecast. A forecast is a lot more than just looking at models.

 

But what is the reason that this area doesn't often get big snowfalls in March?  I guarantee you it's not because a massive push of arctic air suppressed and/or dried out the system.

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But what is the reason that this area doesn't often get big snowfalls in March?  I guarantee you it's not because a massive push of arctic air suppressed and/or dried out the system.

 

There are lots of reasons... but let's not forget it rained for half of our QPF from this storm, and the changeover was slightly delayed according to what some of the models predicted.

 

And let's not forget as well how our big storms around here generally develop, and how we have not received greater than 10" for the entire month of March once in the 1980-2013 climate period. I'd just like to understand better what LWX is thinking.

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Dude, most model guidance was indicating those totals were possible. Downstream obs indicated that we could be in line for some good rates today. It was going to be tricky, but if you forecast 4-6 and someone gets 8-10, people are going to be hounding you. If you forecast 8-10 and someone gets 4-6, people are going to be hounding you. Previous March storms only come into play so much as most of them were not similar to this setup. These things happen. It's a bust, but it looks like most of the area is going to end up with 3-6. It's still good. Just stop posting.

There are lots of reasons... but let's not forget it rained for half of our QPF from this storm, and the changeover was slightly delayed according to what some of the models predicted.

 

And let's not forget as well how our big storms around here generally develop, and how we have not received greater than 10" for the entire month of March once in the 1980-2013 climate period. I'd just like to understand better what LWX is thinking.

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