Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not buying what the NAM/18z GFS are selling right now for Sun night into Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 everyone going back to school in Mass Monday morning also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not buying what the NAM/18z GFS are selling right now for Sun night into Mon. How are your srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not buying what the NAM/18z GFS are selling right now for Sun night into Mon. Probably too much but who knows. Nice agreement now on american guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 How are your srefs meh. maybe 0.1" Probably too much but who knows. Nice agreement now on american guidance. I just don't see how this can amplify enough to drop more than 1-2" tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not buying a 36 hour solution with good agreement makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 meh. maybe 0.1" I just don't see how this can amplify enough to drop more than 1-2" tops. Vort max plus an instability signal/good snow growth could give you a narrow batch of decent snow. That's a potent looking vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Man out in Killingly CT NE facing hills remain buried, temp crashing as we came off the hill. Houses in these areas in the woods still have a lot of snow on their roofs. Amazing differences across the street the houses have none. Great to see the refresher incoming. Wow on that Euro run. False spring lovers will be pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z gfs looks okay for 3/1 at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not buying a 36 hour solution with good agreement makes no sense to me.seems the full circle pattern is still going on with the models, what a frigging weenie dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z gfs looks okay for 3/1 at this time range. Yeah actually not bad...maybe that will come back to life in the subsequent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Surprised at the snow cover in SRI still there when I left at the 1, probably 3-4 most spots with of course the torch south hillsides bare. North Stonington probably 4-6 Voluntown 6-8, home 10-12 with the woods and weenie shade 12-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 seems the full circle pattern is still going on with the models, what a frigging weenie dream Running for a mid late march 1993 style pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The more I look at tomorrow...the more it's interesting to me. I feel like today the dynamics and frontogenesis got a lot better. Yes it is anafrontal, but that is some strong 850-700 frontogenesis...you can look at the 850 thermal fields and see a pretty tight gradient. That s/w comes and tightens it up further as well as an induced circulation from south to north up and over the sloped thermal fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The more I look at tomorrow...the more it's interesting to me. I feel like today the dynamics and frontogenesis got a lot better. Yes it is anafrontal, but that is some strong 850-700 frontogenesis...you can look at the 850 thermal fields and see a pretty tight gradient. That s/w comes and tightens it up further as well as an induced circulation from south to north up and over the sloped thermal fields. Agreed. Thought the same thing. It's going to be a narrow zone though... so 50 miles north or south will make a lot of difference. I don't think we need it to "dig" anymore... the anafrontal structure with strong vort max pushing through should be enough. Also an instability signal around H7. That could be enough for a spot 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Agreed. Thought the same thing. It's going to be a narrow zone though... so 50 miles north or south will make a lot of difference. I don't think we need it to "dig" anymore... the anafrontal structure with strong vort max pushing through should be enough. Also an instability signal around H7. That could be enough for a spot 4". Yep. I can envision this narrow mesoscale band developing for sure like you said. I'm pretty impressed by BUFKIT. If you look at the theta-e plots on the overview..actually some folding of those surfaces which means some instability and -EPV. Of course maybe the GFS is overdoing it..but all models sort of have that look. Well hopefully the 00z runs continue this. Still have until tomorrow morning to really figure it out I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yep. I can envision this narrow mesoscale band developing for sure like you said. I'm pretty impressed by BUFKIT. If you look at the theta-e plots on the overview..actually some folding of those surfaces which means some instability and -EPV. Of course maybe the GFS is overdoing it..but all models sort of have that look. Well hopefully the 00z runs continue this. Still have until tomorrow morning to really figure it out I suppose. Agreed with that. If you look at the elevated CAPE plots you can see it there as well on the NAM. Haven't looked at 18z GFS soundings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 RGEM looks pretty robust at 48 hours with the energy in the midwest for our potential mid/late week storm...FWIW https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Tomorrow looks about 5-7 degrees cooler than today and with clouds increasing should limit any more damage to sun exposed areas. Then we add a few inches Tomorriw night which should actually be wet snow for once and it comes in at night so will stick quickly to rds. Mobday morning could be slick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Tomorrow looks about 5-7 degrees cooler than today and with clouds increasing should limit any more damage to sun exposed areas. Then we add a few inches Tomorriw night which should actually be wet snow for once and it comes in at night so will stick quickly to rds. Mobday morning could be slickMobday sounds deadly, FYI lots of houses in the woods with deep deep snow on the roofs, pictures tomorrow afternoon as promised. Sun houses cleaner than your dome after it's polished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Mobday sounds deadly, FYI lots of houses in the woods with deep deep snow on the roofs, pictures tomorrow afternoon as promised. Sun houses cleaner than your dome after it's polished.i didn't hear about any collapses the last 2 days?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 RGEM is very meh for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z GEFS are very very juicy. Looks like widespread advisory snows Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 i didn't hear about any collapses the last 2 days???? The bulletins were to clean before future storms increased the load, that and the rain from yesterday adding weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z GEFS are very very juicy. Looks like widespread advisory snows Sunday night.your forecast will probably piss off a lot of Superintendents, commuters, spring folly folks. I look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah actually not bad...maybe that will come back to life in the subsequent days. As you know, given the bias of not properly phasing streams in the long range, and often too aggressive with the PJ, maybe it does have a chance. It's a mega-hit if that's the case. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z GFS did not suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Take the over on any snowfall forecast in SNE. You guys are on fire this season. Persistence not meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 your forecast will probably piss off a lot of Superintendents, commuters, spring folly folks. I look forward to it. Yeah I can sense the growing anger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yeah I can sense the growing anger.The only anger from me is the town going back to the old days and dumping sand on the streets instead of straight salt. Ever since they ran out and went way over budget last week they've come around the last 3 mornings dumping horrific red sand all over everything. Did you have a map total on air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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