Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It will be clearing by the time you head out for your am run.Will be a nice win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah, relative to normal, per given latitudinal distinction (if you will... call them, MA/SNE/NNE) this does appear to be an SNE winter. That March/April thing you mention, obviously we don't have upslope and other mountain effects to contend with, but we will have the proverbial "bowling season" yet to possibly really make things special. Those can really save a season, and even you guys up there can cash in on bigger balls. haha. Seriously, we could be 175% of normal down here on March 15, then get an equinox cut-off bomb and really put the screws to the record books. Or, obviously you could struggling to get to seasonal quotas when boom, saved by the bell. I hate April -- I've gone on record in my opining diatribes... But I would never discount the possibility of an interesting encore Yeah the end of the season really is the wild card...sort of where does it all finally fit in the historical record. All it would take is a couple big ones and all looks good in the raw snowfall totals up here. Like you said for you guys, a couple big ones and this winter is truly historic. The upslope up here has really been whats handicapped us as it's been missing due to a missing cyclonic flow to our NE. The flow aloft has been really westerly or SWly, and we haven't had storms slow down and spin up to the north/east. It's an interesting phenomenon to think about how a mesoscale feature like that just can never develop due to the background synoptic pattern. Season isn't over, but we usually have a couple big upslope events of 1-3 feet per winter, amid a lot of 3-6 inchers. Without those, it's hard for the mountains to achieve normal snowfall...it's like taking lake effect snow from the Great Lakes region (which some winters just don't produce a lot of Lake Effect for whatever reason, while other winters can bury), and their chances for average snowfall drop off a cliff. Not that 99% of this board cares, and in fact is probably glad to not have upslope every other day posts from me, haha. 2011-2012 really seemed to breed animosity towards upslope when everyone else suffered in snowfall that winter but we piled it up at times, including a 36" in 36 hour event in February 2012. But then we get pay back like this year with little to none. I'm hopeful we can end up near average at least, but the flavor of this winter is known so I'm fine with it....I mean there will be winters (maybe sooner rather than later) when maybe we are the southern end of the good snows, and it's atrocious down south. Or a winter where every storm seems to be a deep interior snow bomb and the frustrations aren't W/NW New England but eastern sections. It comes and goes from winter to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Blue bird Funday, refresher incoming life is great for a winter freak like myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro ensembles look nice for Wednesday and ever so slowly trying to make next weekend more interesting. They also got much colder later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro ensembles look nice for Wednesday and ever so slowly trying to make next weekend more interesting. They also got much colder later this week. Although with it being colder, the risk is more offshore too. Wednesday also ticked SE from 00z. Might be more of an impact for SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Lol Wed is not going to be a miss or just for the coast. The pattern as it has all winter argues for an in closer solution. We saw thus same thing happen in Dec an Jan with storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I am a little concerned that basically no other piece of guidance is showing a euro type solution for Wednesday. We aren't really in lala land anymore, and it does look like the euro cut back slightly from the 00z run. Hopefully that's not the start of a trend, but I'm not really feeling all that great about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Lol Wed is not going to be a miss or just for the coast. The pattern as it has all winter argues for an in closer solution. We saw thus same thing happen in Dec an Jan with storms I hate to say it but I actually agree with this. A few GEFS members also have some fun solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I hate to say it but I actually agree with this. A few GEFS members also have some fun solutions.Yeah the threat is legit for everyone. Euro and ens have pulled this several times this winter only to rip it back NW. The pattern certainly argues for a sizeable east coast hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The mountains up here are running some decent negative departures in snowfall...the valleys are pretty close to normal though. It's more stark though when I'm say in the upper 70s for snow right now (not a far pace from normal which is 125" for the season), with March and April left. However the Boston suburbs are at about the same values which has to be like 200% of normal to date. So we have not been privy to the same note-worthy snows as further south...and overall it'll be a forgettable winter most likely (as most average or a tick below average winters are). At the end of January though, the mountains up here were below normal by values that are similar to most SNE annual snowfalls. We'd have to have a big March and April for the mountains to have a shot at normal (say 140" in two months, not unheard of but takes a pattern we haven't seen yet this year). What comes around goes around, each winter has it's flavor and different areas remember different winters in the lore of "good winters." I guess in my first year here I was hoping it would be one of the "good ones", and it just didn't really work out, but it's still better than a sub 40 season (like 2011-2012). February was good, until this most recent rainer. As for the mountains you are right, there have been no big upslope events. That is certainly a major missing element. My current guess is that we come in slightly below normal at BTV on snowfall at the close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Lol Wed is not going to be a miss or just for the coast. The pattern as it has all winter argues for an in closer solution. We saw thus same thing happen in Dec an Jan with storms Who said a miss or just for the coast? I'm saying what it shows now and given the pattern..I don't think it has much room to come west..it actually went SE of 00z. If you have a GFS/Euro compromise..it isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah the threat is legit for everyone. Euro and ens have pulled this several times this winter only to rip it back NW. The pattern certainly argues for a sizeable east coast hit You haven't looked at anything so until you do..I wouldn't comment on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Who said a miss or just for the coast? I'm saying what it shows now and given the pattern..I don't think it has much room to come west..it actually went SE of 00z. If you have a GFS/Euro compromise..it isn't much.You did. Commenting only for SE areas of SNE. It's for the whole region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You did. Commenting only for SE areas of SNE. It's for the whole region Please read again. More of an impact. That doesn't mean only snow in SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Who said a miss or just for the coast? I'm saying what it shows now and given the pattern..I don't think it has much room to come west..it actually went SE of 00z. If you have a GFS/Euro compromise..it isn't much. I agree with you here. As much as I would love this to work out, the euro deff ticked SE, which is concerning given where all other guidance currently stands. As you said, something even in the middle is still pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I agree with you here. As much as I would love this to work out, the euro deff ticked SE, which is concerning given where all other guidance currently stands. As you said, something even in the middle is still pretty meh. It could still come NW...I'm not saying it won't.....and I want it to...but it only has so much room I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Please read again. More of an impact. That doesn't mean only snow in SE areas.Maybe the one time all winter that will happen but given the pattern there's a large margin to move well west. Enough to potentially bring Ptype issues to s coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Maybe the one time all winter that will happen but given the pattern there's a large margin to move well west. Enough to potentially bring Ptype issues to s coast We've had plenty of storms that were progressive and went east inside 4-5 days. You forget those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It could still come NW...I'm not saying it won't.....and I want it to...but it only has so much room I think. Yeah, we've seen this winter that a good majority have come nw in the end, but I don't necessarily think anyone should be banking on that, or assuming it's likely even. We will see what happens, but even if it does come nw, this type of storm will favor southeast areas regardless, that's just how it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah, we've seen this winter that a good majority have come nw in the end, but I don't necessarily think anyone should be banking on that, or assuming it's likely even. We will see what happens, but even if it does come nw, this type of storm will favor southeast areas regardless, that's just how it is I don't disagree it will come NW, I just wish Kevin would look at a model instead of blindly commenting on what a pattern may or may not do. Hopefully 00z runs are bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I don't disagree it will come NW, I just wish Kevin would look at a model instead of blindly commenting on what a pattern may or may not do. Hopefully 00z runs are bullish. Yup, it would be nice to get something cooking in the next 5-7 days, would hate to squander that period that had looked fairly ripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 MEX MOS seems really warm for the end of the week. I guess getting skewed by climo but I have a hard time buying 13/31 and 12/32 for BDL on Thursday/Friday with 850s near/below -20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not trying to incite resentment ... but seriously, are you folks running negative snow anomalies on the season -- or what are your averages, curiously. Often times we find that winter seems to favor bands (relative to their local norms) in latitude from year to year. This can be MA/SNE/NNE for example, and looking back at the past 5 years, it seems each has had their share. Running at normal at BTV (57" to date) and below in the elevations (not sure of those exact departures). After this week BTV will likely be below again. We were as much as a foot below normal in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 MEX MOS seems really warm for the end of the week. I guess getting skewed by climo but I have a hard time buying 13/31 and 12/32 for BDL on Thursday/Friday with 850s near/below -20C. I was just saying how this will be a "MOS For the Loss" airmass and more of a 2m temp type deal. IOW 2m temps are probably going to be closer to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 In any case, look at the huge arctic high building south. Thicknesses should be ignored especially the further south one goes because it becomes more of a shallow arctic airmass at that point. You can see this on the 2m temp departures vs 850 and even 500mb height departures. Those temp departures are not what you would expect if one just looks at the height anomalies at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 We've had plenty of storms that were progressive and went east inside 4-5 days. You forget those. i wonder how many of your posts are in response to ctbliz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z nam has some snow showers for the early morning hours of the 24th..mostly SE zones.. 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 NAM totally weenies out Sunday night for Kevin's snow event. Buyer beware, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 If the NAM happened and I got a couple of inches..Kevin will be my hero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 If the NAM happened and I got a couple of inches..Kevin will be my hero. would be a nice refresher, the snow looks like crap with all the dirt/mud etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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