jamesnichols1989 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Tomorrow looks weak at best, I like the Wednesday system as the EURO is not far off from a big hit, but GFS needs to catch up to what the EURO is showing otherwise its just another big bust for the GFS this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Tomorrow looks weak at best, I like the Wednesday system as the EURO is not far off from a big hit, but GFS needs to catch up to what the EURO is showing otherwise its just another big bust for the GFS this winter.Or a big win? Potential is there though. That's all you can ask for 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 12z NAM/NMM/ARW meso-models look like they would have a band of snow tomorrow night. Dendrite gets 0.25-0.5" QPF on the ARM/NMM, haha. Whereas the NAM has the 0.1" melted line from Tolland to BOS and southward. Just the models you want in your camp if you are looking for snow tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 If you are in my area pick either the GFS or Euro and its crap (reminds me of January). BTV could enter negative departures in snow again this week (just about normal right now in terms of the season total to date). For those of us who ski the Greens it has been frustrating. It has been "meh" by the standards here. A couple of good events but forgettable overall (nothing close to memorable or historic like areas to the south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 If you are in my area pick either the GFS or Euro and its crap (reminds me of January). BTV could enter negative departures in snow again this week (just about normal right now in terms of the season total to date). For those of us who ski the Greens it has been frustrating. It has been "meh" by the standards here. A couple of good events but forgettable overall (nothing close to memorable or historic like areas to the south). Eh, the past two weeks have been awesome... we've got the snowpack now. No worries. It'll snow at some point. BTV did get a bit more shafted over the past week than we did in the mountains, picking up 5-8" from those two prior events before yesterday. I'm no where near as antsy as I was in January when that month was the most frustrating winter month since I moved up here, lol. Nothing is going to come close to matching 4 rain events sandwiched between sub-zero cold shots with no snow between. That was rock bottom. Just enjoy it now... sun angle is getting higher, the daylight longer, snow is on the ground... this is my favorite time of year from now through April. Mountain snowpack at its highest and generally nicer weather mixed in with some snow events. Feels more like Colorado weather a lot of the time. I noticed the first rays of daylight on the horizon when I showed up to work at 5:30am...the longer days are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS improved, but still ain't feeling Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Low was 29 here. Actually locked up the snow for now. That will change as we all blast John Mayer rolling down I-84 to the girls soccer meet. Knee on the wheel, one arm out the window tanning, other ripping twitter tweets about the 2-4" Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Pushing 40 already. Torch is on. Smells of spring. Currently 38.1 interior degrees. I don't really like the midweek storm, but maybe a light advisory type event for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Kevin loves to add 5-6 degrees to the coast and subtract that much for the hills. Coastal areas like BOS should hit 51-52 today while Kevin hits 45ish. Ironically there doesn't seem to be much melting today....there seemed more yesterday with much cooler temps but fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Kevin loves to add 5-6 degrees to the coast and subtract that much for the hills. Coastal areas like BOS should hit 51-52 today while Kevin hits 45ish. Ironically there doesn't seem to be much melting today.lllthe re seemed more yesterday with much cooler temps but fog. It's evaporating as fast as it melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Hopefully the euro holds onto the low next week and isnt a euro fantasy fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I have mentioned this in the past but will do so again ... on or about February 10 of any given year, the sun seems to become noticeably more factored into both the sensible weather, but also the temperature forecasts. A car parked in a sunny spot, on a full sun afternoon (in the absence CAA), upon succeeding that date, the interior of the car will warm sufficiently that even on cold day, the occupant may hesitate to activate the heater. The temperature that afternoon will bust 1 to as much as 5F above machine guidance, routinely. It's the very earliest vestige of seasonal change ... now ever growing as we go forward. Despite the cold appeal to the middle and "early" extended range, those forces are there and getting stronger by day. As far as the dailies ... this may be less significant to mention, because it is likely to get sensibly cold, but the modeled complexion of it, to me, appears to have lost the same appeal the globals were flashing a couple/few days ago. This is really noticeable in the operational Euro; it only brings the -20C, 850mb isotherm down to about ALB for one day, before the whole medium starts to moderate significantly from the MV to NE, at the tail end of the fantasy range. This is really actually understating a trend to less the impact. I guess if this is against the druthers of the poster, your impetus could rest on that word "fantasy", in that the model may also be rushing that moderation, true. It's just that in terms of what the model is actually showing/trending, this is an attenuation by runs -- I mentioned this yesterday, it was noticeable then, too. It is interesting that the GFS is the colder of the two models, but even it now holds the -24C back NW of SNE across the last couple of model cycles (through D7). Other than temperatures, it's hard to say .. The possible ANA scenario late Sunday night/Monday morning isn't a dead potential in my mind, because the polar boundary being displaced S of the region, and then having 500mb jet max maturing as it passes over the area could very easily draw some up-slope return flow in the 850-700mb ... 600mb levels for producing some lop-over snow. Not convinced that won't happen. The mid week system is still there, barely ... depending on the varying degree of success in the models trying so desperately to erase it from the hopes and dreams of the winter protracted.. But it is inside D5 and the Euro seems to clip the SE half of the region with yet another in a endless series of needle-threaders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The ensembles were always warmer than the op. the -28C temps at 850 never appeared on them. I also noticed the cold was tied to storminess or lack there of. IOW some of the cold runs were suppressed too. That may not be earth shattering news. IMHO I will gladly take precip over cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro like up to an inch of snow for most of sne wee hours going to dawn Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro still a decent hit Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The ensembles were always warmer than the op. the -28C temps at 850 never appeared on them. I also noticed the cold was tied to storminess or lack there of. IOW some of the cold runs were suppressed too. That may not be earth shattering news. IMHO I will gladly take precip over cold. Looks like the 12z Euro is heading toward decent continuity with respect to its 00z run, re the mid week quick hitter. It was inside of D5 as of last night ... fwiw, but that is inside the Euro wheelhouse. ah, you beat me to it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Snowy Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 what ever happens it's going to be a ludicrous speed with that raging SPV monster and it's countless contours of geopotential heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The ensembles were always warmer than the op. the -28C temps at 850 never appeared on them. I also noticed the cold was tied to storminess or lack there of. IOW some of the cold runs were suppressed too. That may not be earth shattering news. IMHO I will gladly take precip over cold.Who would ever take dry/cold over less cold and snowy?I'm quite glad it's modified some...I'm over the brutal cold for days on end. Good trends picked up by Tippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Who would ever take dry/cold over less cold and snowy?I would take record cold over less cold/advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The Euro has some decent QPF for SNE on Wed with a 4-6 event with nothing up here but a dusting to an inch or two at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro is heading toward decent continuity with respect to its 00z run, re the mid week quick hitter. It was inside of D5 as of last night ... fwiw, but that is inside the Euro wheelhouse. ah, you beat me to it - I wish it would dig a bit more because it would be a heck of a storm. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Who would ever take dry/cold over less cold and snowy? I'm quite glad it's modified some...I'm over the brutal cold for days on end. Good trends picked up by Tippy. Anyone and everyone in that environment, would be the answer, because they don't have any choice. Ha. But yeah, I think if folks (the winter geese) really want snow, we don't need all that crazy gradient. So done with that, too. I'm still wearing my winter hat (though, today being such a bluebird beauty, 52 and cerulean skies does tug a bit...), so wouldn't mind the experience of a good wallop of two. In fact, with heavier than normal snow totals so far, it's always a fun journey to ask whether that can be increased. But in more practical terms, as you say ... we really want a little gradient and a lot of wind mechanics aloft -- that's where the party plays. These giant gyres are empty eye-candy. By the way folks, I was reading the other day that despite the N/A January temperature and snow distribution and anomalies therein, that was the 4th warmest January in Global history. GW, regardless of cause, is f real man. Not to digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I wish it would dig a bit more because it would be a heck of a storm. . Right, it appears that this just misses jumping onto the N-stream rails where it would a huge kick-back from all those powerhouse mechanics. Still, as is, not a total loss for perhaps quick moderate sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Snowy Monday . It will be clearing by the time you head out for your am run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The Euro has some decent QPF for SNE on Wed with a 4-6 event with nothing up here but a dusting to an inch or two at best. Not trying to incite resentment ... but seriously, are you folks running negative snow anomalies on the season -- or what are your averages, curiously. Often times we find that winter seems to favor bands (relative to their local norms) in latitude from year to year. This can be MA/SNE/NNE for example, and looking back at the past 5 years, it seems each has had their share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not trying to incite resentment ... but seriously, are you folks running negative snow anomalies on the season -- or what are your averages, curiously. Often times we find that winter seems to favor bands (relative to their local norms) in latitude from year to year. This can be MA/SNE/NNE for example, and looking back at the past 5 years, it seems each has had their share. The mountains up here are running some decent negative departures in snowfall...the valleys are pretty close to normal though. It's more stark though when I'm say in the upper 70s for snow right now (not a far pace from normal which is 125" for the season), with March and April left. However the Boston suburbs are at about the same values which has to be like 200% of normal to date. So we have not been privy to the same note-worthy snows as further south...and overall it'll be a forgettable winter most likely (as most average or a tick below average winters are). At the end of January though, the mountains up here were below normal by values that are similar to most SNE annual snowfalls. We'd have to have a big March and April for the mountains to have a shot at normal (say 140" in two months, not unheard of but takes a pattern we haven't seen yet this year). What comes around goes around, each winter has it's flavor and different areas remember different winters in the lore of "good winters." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Weenie steps next weekend on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I approve of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The mountains up here are running some decent negative departures in snowfall...the valleys are pretty close to normal though. It's more stark though when I'm say in the upper 70s for snow right now (not a far pace from normal which is 125" for the season), with March and April left. However the Boston suburbs are at about the same values which has to be like 200% of normal to date. So we have not been privy to the same note-worthy snows as further south...and overall it'll be a forgettable winter most likely (as most average or a tick below average winters are). At the end of January though, the mountains up here were below normal by values that are similar to most SNE annual snowfalls. We'd have to have a big March and April for the mountains to have a shot at normal (say 140" in two months, not unheard of but takes a pattern we haven't seen yet this year). What comes around goes around, each winter has it's flavor and different areas remember different winters in the lore of "good winters." Yeah, relative to normal, per given latitudinal distinction (if you will... call them, MA/SNE/NNE) this does appear to be an SNE winter. That March/April thing you mention, obviously we don't have upslope and other mountain effects to contend with, but we will have the proverbial "bowling season" yet to possibly really make things special. Those can really save a season, and even you guys up there can cash in on bigger balls. haha. Seriously, we could be 175% of normal down here on March 15, then get an equinox cut-off bomb and really put the screws to the record books. Or, obviously you could struggling to get to seasonal quotas when boom, saved by the bell. I hate April -- I've gone on record in my opining diatribes... But I would never discount the possibility of an interesting encore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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