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Pattern reload cold and snow discussion last week of February


Ginx snewx

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There's probably going to be a lot of flakes in the air over the next two days but not much accumulation to show for it. I do think tomorrow, a lot places will pick up a coating. Maybe even a lucky inch in a spot or two.

 

 

The Thursday shortwave is somewhat intriguing because of how strong the PVA is and there is a bit of LL moisture to work with...so there could def be a few squalls fired off. I'd prefer the high moisture to make it upto about 600mb or so...but it only makes it up to about 750mb. Still, even with that, its a very cold airmass aloft with steep lapse rates and some LL moisture, so windex squalls may try to occur.

 

 

 

Well the Wednesday stuff was a fail, but today worked out.

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Ive noticed you get very irritable at times on here. The problem is when someone says it favors SE areas. Folks that don't follow closely or might not understand the wx fully like Garth or MPM think that means it's only going to snow over SE mass. While the rest of the region sees no snow. The comment favors SE areas needs to be changed to favored for heaviest amouts, but the entire region still sees accumulating snow.

I can't find the final tally on this from yesterday.  It must have been exclusive to really, really far SE areas.  So far SE that only the fish experienced it.

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Record low max is in jeopardy for ORH...18F is the record for tomorrow.

 

 

MOS has a cooled a bit overnight to 15F and 16F for the highs at ORH today...so record low max seems probable.

 

 

BDR should be a lock as their record low max is a relatively mild 27F for today. PVD has an outside shot at 21F.

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19F...no record. I am surprised...I thought it was nearly a lock but guidance over-estimated this cold push a bit.

 

I think we also run into problems with assessing the sun's ability to man-handle an atmosphere post Feb 15 ... particularly nearing March that is going to true.  

 

The "bust vector" (if one wishes...) is almost always pointed on the + side of temp guidance until the ides of August then it starts going the other direction.

 

One clue to the possibility of the sun's massacre is that the dawn temps were actually handled almost on the money; it wasn't until blue-bird blues allowed unimpeded lasers for 6 hours... 

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I think we also run into problems with assessing the sun's ability to man-handle an atmosphere post Feb 15 ... particularly nearing March that is going to true.  

 

The "bust vector" (if one wishes...) is almost always pointed on the + side of temp guidance until the ides of August then it starts going the other direction.

 

One clue to the possibility of the sun's massacre is that the dawn temps were actually handled almost on the money; it wasn't until blue-bird blues allowed unimpeded lasers for 6 hours... 

 

I was wondering about that today... up here it was absolutely frigid this morning, below zero, breezy, etc.  But by like late morning it just didn't seem to have the bite that it did in December and January.  We were supposed to stay in the single digits today (high of 5-9F) at 1,500ft and ended up hitting 11F.  Not a big bust, but standing out in the sun just didn't have the bitter feel that similar cold had earlier in the winter.

 

Though that may just be because we are more used to it now, but I was more musing that full sunshine this time of year may warrant a 1-3F increase over model guidance.

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