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Pattern reload cold and snow discussion last week of February


Ginx snewx

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Dave, the wind was wicked @ wawa tonite

Winter has certainly returned, those 925mb temps are a tumblin

Heavy heavy low level cold this week

yes, notice each run getting colder too. Seeing some -38 850s now just North of Minnesota, that's brutal. Heavy heavy cold, guess is modeled 2m temps are too high. Extensive snow cover around here will only help.
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"Big cold is my call this winter.  Snow should come too.  Epic is my call...one for the ages.  NNE will do extraordinarily well.  Not sure I buy the warm south of NYC.  I think the AO/NAO spends some negative time in the heart of winter.  But as long as the EPO holds we're getting frequent 3-6/4-8 type events but probably few if any blockbusters."  


 


What a Call!  I'm at 7 6" Events and with 2 more it may be my All-Time Record!  And No biggies just one 12.5" storm.  That I missed of course.  


 


This is turning into the Dis-junked 2002-2003 Season.  Tons of Cold, Tons of Snow, but unlike 2002-2003 they are not connected.  The January Cold didn't coordinate with the snow and the February cold is not coordinating with the snow (as we just had 5 days of Very warm temps).  If we had a 10"-20" storm coming tomorrow, then we're talking more closely to 2002-2003.  I'm sick of this awesome winter NOT coordinating the cold and snow!  


 


2002-2003 Still the Best Winter of my life.  2004-2005 and 1996-1997 and 2010-2011 have to fight for the scraps of the podium.  

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"Big cold is my call this winter.  Snow should come too.  Epic is my call...one for the ages.  NNE will do extraordinarily well.  Not sure I buy the warm south of NYC.  I think the AO/NAO spends some negative time in the heart of winter.  But as long as the EPO holds we're getting frequent 3-6/4-8 type events but probably few if any blockbusters."  

 

What a Call!  I'm at 7 6" Events and with 2 more it may be my All-Time Record!  And No biggies just one 12.5" storm.  That I missed of course.  

 

This is turning into the Dis-junked 2002-2003 Season.  Tons of Cold, Tons of Snow, but unlike 2002-2003 they are not connected.  The January Cold didn't coordinate with the snow and the February cold is not coordinating with the snow (as we just had 5 days of Very warm temps).  If we had a 10"-20" storm coming tomorrow, then we're talking more closely to 2002-2003.  I'm sick of this awesome winter NOT coordinating the cold and snow!  

 

2002-2003 Still the Best Winter of my life.  2004-2005 and 1996-1997 and 2010-2011 have to fight for the scraps of the podium.  

 

Where were you in 1995-1996? I had a deep pack that winter.

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Euro actually might give a little period of light snow for Thursday as the next arctic front comes through...almost develops a little sfc reflection over SE MA. So we may have to watch for that.

 

I sort of tossed that idea at first, but the ensembles also hinted at this.  It is a potent s/w.

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I sort of tossed that idea at first, but the ensembles also hinted at this.  It is a potent s/w.

 

 

The other guidance doesn't dig the shortwave quite as far south...so we'll see. If Euro is right, then we might see more squally/windexy weather with maybe even a brief period of steadier snow in the form of a band or something....but if the thing is further north...then its more like a couple snow showers with the squalls limited to mountains.

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There's probably going to be a lot of flakes in the air over the next two days but not much accumulation to show for it. I do think tomorrow, a lot places will pick up a coating. Maybe even a lucky inch in a spot or two.

 

 

The Thursday shortwave is somewhat intriguing because of how strong the PVA is and there is a bit of LL moisture to work with...so there could def be a few squalls fired off. I'd prefer the high moisture to make it upto about 600mb or so...but it only makes it up to about 750mb. Still, even with that, its a very cold airmass aloft with steep lapse rates and some LL moisture, so windex squalls may try to occur.

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There's probably going to be a lot of flakes in the air over the next two days but not much accumulation to show for it. I do think tomorrow, a lot places will pick up a coating. Maybe even a lucky inch in a spot or two.

 

 

The Thursday shortwave is somewhat intriguing because of how strong the PVA is and there is a bit of LL moisture to work with...so there could def be a few squalls fired off. I'd prefer the high moisture to make it upto about 600mb or so...but it only makes it up to about 750mb. Still, even with that, its a very cold airmass aloft with steep lapse rates and some LL moisture, so windex squalls may try to occur.

 

Might even be a few lines of snow showers/squalls too?

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