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Pattern reload cold and snow discussion last week of February


Ginx snewx

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Euro is still not buying what the GGEM/UKMET/NAM are selling for Monday morning.

 

Wasn't someone commenting that the Euro's vulnerability ...kind of an achile's heal pattern, is progressive n-stream dominant ?  I think that's true anyway, but if someone knows off hand may want to corroborate that statement.  

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2 snow events in the next 5 days.. Most places avoided the warm sector.. Not a bad deal

But tomorrow will be 44F and sunny in the hill towns.  51F and sunny on the CP.  Sunday is torchy too.  At least the driveway ice melted...

 

I'm intrigued by the WED threat. GFS/EURO combo leading the way for now.  SUN night is an NAM/GGEM combo (not as good IMO).

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But tomorrow will be 44F and sunny in the hill towns.  51F and sunny on the CP.  Sunday is torchy too.  At least the driveway ice melted...

 

I'm intrigued by the WED threat. GFS/EURO combo leading the way for now.  SUN night is an NAM/GGEM combo (not as good IMO).

Tomorrow will be low -mid 40's hills and 50-55 CP and Sunday 38-42 hills 43-47 CP..about like yesterday..but with low dews..today was the big worry  (for me anyway)

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March is a high variance month though, so we could easily get a turd...even if it starts off cold. Though obviously things are looking up for the first 10 days of the month.

 

I'd feel better about it though if we had a -NAO. But its not a requirement for a good March....1993 is the top example of that. 1997 as well.

 

By far the most variable of the 4 wintry months at my foothills location.  The 15-yr avg for March snow is 16.8", the 3 lowest and 3 highest months noted below:

 

0.6"....2010

2.8"....2006

3.4"....2004

 

31.1"...2005

32.2"...1999

55.5"...2001

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I wonder if there has ever been a study that correlates the snow and cold loaded winters of lore with "pattern characteristic"

 

The reason I pose the rhetorical question is that it leaps to mind, we are headed (pretty clearly) toward an above normal snow season. Additionally, all four climatology sites on NWS' website put up negative temperature departures for December and January, and are well en route to doing the same for February. 

 

By the way, HFD is nearly -7 for the month of February so far, and with a major cold outbreak on the way the expectation is that they may oscillated over the next 3 days before carving that even deeper. 

 

I just think it is really interesting that we are pulling this off without ever having observed a retrograde pattern.  

 

Can you imagine if we finally sans that appeal heading into "bowling season", THEN had an April Fools redux?  Either way, I really think we can find our way toward another 15 to 20" at these climo-sites (and in between of course), through the first week of March. Some sites, such as ORH, would be nearing 100" for the season, and the region would still have to dodge the rest of cut-off season (which really can include much of April).  Interesting.

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The ec ensembles have the Wednesday deal too. Bit of a late bloomer and would favor SE areas for now I suppose..but plenty of time to work on that.

12z EURO OP bought back the 3/1 threat but suppressed. Im not so sure anybody should be counting that out until models can determine what effects the wednesday storm will have on it upstream/downstream. The pattern next week heading into the following week is one of the best we've seen this year thus far. Not wishcasting but the last weekend big kahuna that broke alot of hearts is different than what this one is coming into pattern wise.

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Wednesday does look pretty nice on the ensembles. QPF gets decently far NW so there's probably some decent members in there.

 

 

The ensembles are also trying to revive the 3/1 threat a bit...but still a lot of work to do there. But the fact that it does get 0.10-0.20 of liquid into SNE on the mean suggests some pretty good solutions mixed in the ensembles.

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