Pattern reload cold and snow discussion last week of February

[powderfreak]

I have been at BW when it's the only place getting dumped on.

Correct...Bretton Woods gets in on the NW flow events. Wildcat and Cannon get in on it to a lesser degree and likely depends on the Froude number. I distinctly remember the March 4, 2006 event when most of the Greens resorts got 2-4 feet of fluff, BW also measured in feet. There used to be a poster on here that had a vacation home up near there, and would post obs. I just remember that event in particular because the sun was out at the summit of MWN while it was snowing inches per hour below that elevation at Bretton Woods. I remember the observatory posting about that...how they were literally above the inversion when below that elevation was the low level moisture and lift creating the upslope snow.

[neweathereye]

25 days till Spring...that's all I want..honestly have had enough of this weather ...2K for oil so far this winter. I have had enough of Maine winters..heading back to the South Shore of Mass in August..

[Cold Miser]

As long as im not puffin -30 windchills after rain storm ....im content

But i would love to experience a 15" synoptic paste then 24" fluff fest

Probably the most disappointing aspect this winter was this - rain followed by cold then rain then cold.

 

With that being said, I will probably make it almost through this entire month (minus the first couple of days) with 100% snow cover.  That combined with 2 weeks in December of snow cover, plus a almost 2 weeks in January of complete cover is pretty damn good and helps make this winter A-/B+ territory for my area.

[CoastalWx]

25 days till Spring...that's all I want..honestly have had enough of this weather ...2K for oil so far this winter. I have had enough of Maine winters..heading back to the South Shore of Mass in August..

 

[OceanStWx]

I would've paid money to live where you were this winter.  Didn't you have like 3 feet on the ground a few days ago?

 

Most of you know I'm not billing this as anywhere near epic up here, but from like Philly to Boston I think most of those snow lovers would take this winter again in a heart-beat.  It was a pretty strong winter too for parts of central New England, especially towards the coast. 

 

I think most of the coastal dwellers or even everyone within 100 miles of the coastline had an above to well above normal snowfall winter with some serious bouts of cold.

 

I posted an image a while back, but Eastern Region made a graphic showing all their snowfall sites relative to normal. And may 5 were below normal, and we're talking by an inch or two.

 

[OceanStWx]

You and I live in very distinctly different areas with different expectations.  Remember I average almost double what you avg.  Your local winter has been far better relative to avg.

 

In a big winter he'll always be far better relative to average. If you average a lot of snow to begin with, it's hard to go much above normal. When you average less snow (think Baltimore area a couple years ago) and have a big winter, you can get huge positive departures.

 

[codfishsnowman]

i dont want to make myself crazy over this. hopefully the pattern will deliver and Leon Epocosity will wrap his arms generously around the entire area so that everyone feels the love and that the unicorns keep hi fiving each other

[OceanStWx]

I'd be curious to see N.NH too (like north of Gene/wxeye)... I bet they could be flirting with below normal, especially the upslope regions of NH.  Even Tamarack in ME may have been too far north... I think Dryslot is right near average, too. 

 

I mean we are talking about generally snowy areas in the northern tier, so "below normal" should be taken in that context.  It doesn't mean "no snow"... its just compared to other seasonal totals, this winter isn't going to be found near the top of any list I think in most of NNE. 

 

Just checking out our friend in Pittsburg, NH. He's "only" at 123.6" for the year. If they do normal the next three months he'll finish about 10 below the average since he started reporting (2005-06).

 

[CoastalWx]

In a big winter he'll always be far better relative to average. If you average a lot of snow to begin with, it's hard to go much above normal. When you average less snow (think Baltimore area a couple years ago) and have a big winter, you can get huge positive departures.

 

 

Yes the variance is huge further south and closer to the coast compared to the interior or NNE.

[OceanStWx]

Yes the variance is huge further south and closer to the coast compared to the interior or NNE.

 

Climatology is your friend.

[CoastalWx]

Climatology is your friend.

 

It will be my foe soon when I bounce back down from 75" winters.

[Ginx snewx]

Correct...Bretton Woods gets in on the NW flow events. Wildcat and Cannon get in on it to a lesser degree and likely depends on the Froude number. I distinctly remember the March 4, 2006 event when most of the Greens resorts got 2-4 feet of fluff, BW also measured in feet. There used to be a poster on here that had a vacation home up near there, and would post obs. I just remember that event in particular because the sun was out at the summit of MWN while it was snowing inches per hour below that elevation at Bretton Woods. I remember the observatory posting about that...how they were literally above the inversion when below that elevation was the low level moisture and lift creating the upslope snow.

I think that's the day I was there or Wildcat.

[OceanStWx]

It will be my foe soon when I bounce back down from 75" winters.

 

But when you have that knowledge you can at least break the fall back to earth with vodka or something.

 

We talk about these good patterns and people get these numbers in their head that are like 5 SD from climo or something. But what fun is it to think you'll do 125% of climo when you could just as easily say 500% of climo. Go for the gold.

[CoastalWx]

But when you have that knowledge you can at least break the fall back to earth with vodka or something.

 

We talk about these good patterns and people get these numbers in their head that are like 5 SD from climo or something. But what fun is it to think you'll do 125% of climo when you could just as easily say 500% of climo. Go for the gold.

 

The CTBlizz method....oh wait I mean Damage in Tolland.

[powderfreak]

Just checking out our friend in Pittsburg, NH. He's "only" at 123.6" for the year. If they do normal the next three months he'll finish about 10 below the average since he started reporting (2005-06).

Yeah that's what I figured...I've got almost exactly the same amount of snowfall at 1,500ft at my office. 120-ish right now starting from November 10th. I'm pretty sure J.Spin is over 100" now too at 500ft of elevation. We have a very similar snowfall climatology to that guy in Pittsburg, NH. If he is getting a lot of snow (relative to normal, before the chorus of "its a lot of snow no matter what"), we would be too.

So yeah, not a banner year in the north like down south, but that's why I said it's not like "no snow", it's just that this winter isn't popping up on any like top 30% type lists.

The deviations from normal though is a good point. Our record high and low winters at the ski area really are only like 30% from normal (say normal is 300" at 3,000ft, we don't see below 200" and only in 2000-2001 did we see a little above 400")....whereas someone averaging 40" may see a record winter at 250% of normal.

[walthsnow]

Just got back from a run, wearing shorts and a t-shirt, and I must say that as sad as it was to see slowly melting piles of ever-increasingly dirty snow, it was amazing to feel the 50's again. So dang refreshing!

[Tornadomachine]

WPC brings hope to wednesday weenies... not.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah that's what I figured...I've got almost exactly the same amount of snowfall at 1,500ft at my office. 120-ish right now starting from November 10th. I'm pretty sure J.Spin is over 100" now too at 500ft of elevation. We have a very similar snowfall climatology to that guy in Pittsburg, NH. If he is getting a lot of snow (relative to normal, before the chorus of "its a lot of snow no matter what"), we would be too.

So yeah, not a banner year in the north like down south, but that's why I said it's not like "no snow", it's just that this winter isn't popping up on any like top 30% type lists.

The deviations from normal though is a good point. Our record high and low winters at the ski area really are only like 30% from normal (say normal is 300" at 3,000ft, we don't see below 200" and only in 2000-2001 did we see a little above 400")....whereas someone averaging 40" may see a record winter at 250% of normal.

 

That's why just looking at departures from normal can sometimes be meh. You'll see larger 850 temp departures across the south in a big Arctic outbreak, but we've still got -35 overhead or something. Standardized anomalies try to balance that out by giving a truer sense of the magnitude of the event.

[free_man]

It's obvious trolling. Disappointing winter being above climo with 5-6 weeks left of legit snow at this locale.

You are obviously trolling as well.  I said it was a good winter, but disappointing if the expectations were "epic proportions" or epicocity.  

February has been pretty epic, no doubt.  But one month does not make a winter...Dec/Jan were pretty average as a whole and had some awful stretches, too.

Anyway, beating a dead horse now.  No I'm not trolling by being realistic.

[moneypitmike]

If we didn't see another flake, I'd give it a B-

 

That's my grade as well, Ray.

 

Although MPM might argue it's been decent. No blockbusters out here but good Dec & Feb, I'm over climo w/ snow and have 20+ nights below zero!

January keeps it a B/B- though. A big event or two more warning events verifying and I'll bump to B+ or better.

 

I don't think I've ever claimed it was decent with the storms all passing to the southeast.  The last couple weeks have been fun with the one significant one and the two modest over-producers.

 

I assume I'll get to average or above on snowfall given that it's still February (it'll be a total bust to not do that).  And, the cold has been impressive.  BBBBBBBBBBUUUUUUUUUUTTTTTTTTTTT........you can't ignore the two total meltdowns that took place. 

 

If we run an epic March, we could eek out a B+.  Maybe an A- with a Mel Brookes "totally ludicrous" March.

 

Bust on temps here today.  P/C this morning had 38* (39?) for a high.  Managed a 45.2.

 

42.7/25.

[Cold Miser]

WPC brings hope to wednesday weenies... not.

Taking my 10% chance to the bank and cashing it in on hopes and dreams.

[Typhoon Tip]

The single, solitary individual's backyard of doom aside, the vaster majority is above normal in snow, and below normal in cold.  For those that covet winter, there is nothing else to say.  What ... you want to opine/complain because it  wasn't even more ?   grow up. Actually, sane up.

 

So ...Wednesday..  The suppression/late development actually makes a good deal of sense on the surface, considering the mighty gradient that will exist between the SPV, and what probably is a tendency in the ambient heights to raise them in the deep south associated with their spring having already begun along the Gulf.  That aspect perhaps only masked by the persistent n-stream dominance exerting/"squashing" the medium from the n.   It makes for even faster balanced wind field at mid levels ... kind of a negative feed-back in reducing cyclogen parametrics.  But, there will still be an impulse in the flow mid week, and should the exact depth and placement of the SPV be off by just a little, than a solution more like the "highly dependable" NAVGEM may re-enter the picture.  The idea can't be dismissed altogether by the sensible user; just precluded by the popularity/model bullies... 

 

The Euro shows an interesting scenario for next weekend.  Noted, NCEP isn't completely discounting a solution that is more meaningful to the EC.  But the Euro takes some southern dynamics and has a bit of a Gulf wave associated, and then it interacts with a sharpening n-stream impulse near the NE coast, and bombs a low ...looks like it clips SE areas, but I am not a subscribed user so my panels leave something to be desired.  However, the operational GFS (12z) has the same southern wave approaching the Arklotex at 120 hours, but it is not as sharp with the n-stream, so it limits stream interaction to ...pretty much no stream interaction. Should also mention ... the dynamics associated with that southern stream won't be passing into the better sampled sounding (out west) until some 84 hours from the 12z grids.  Should that feature be stronger, it could entice more n-stream interaction sooner, and that would like mean more for the EC.

 

Otherwise, flip a coin on that ... the GFS is usually too flat and fast in its late middle range, where the Euro is tends to be the opposite. Correcting for either leaves us with less impression on which way to go.. I will say that both the CPC/CDC would argue that storminess should either be on Wednesday ... then circa March 5th.   The PNA at both enters a bit of nadir next weekend, before going positive at CPC, and gaining some 2SD at the CDC.  Doesn't have to, but as we've discussed in the past over and over and over and over again.... usually the "events" takes place when the PNA is rising/risen.  

[Heisy]

The end of the EURO run has a lot of support from its ensembles, and it looks like the "big one" is setting up;

 

[alex]

Thanks to you and pf!!!

Nope u won't. I hear cannon mtn does occasionally but nothing special. if you like to hike go above 4k on presidential range in fall or spring.

Otherwise nws has a good document on nnh maine upslope and where it hits ..think Northern NH ...as in where there are no jobs or ski resorts...but more snowmobile trails than u can dream.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

That's my grade as well, Ray.

I don't think I've ever claimed it was decent with the storms all passing to the southeast. The last couple weeks have been fun with the one significant one and the two modest over-producers.

I assume I'll get to average or above on snowfall given that it's still February (it'll be a total bust to not do that). And, the cold has been impressive. BBBBBBBBBBUUUUUUUUUUTTTTTTTTTTT........you can't ignore the two total meltdowns that took place.

If we run an epic March, we could eek out a B+. Maybe an A- with a Mel Brookes "totally ludicrous" March.

Bust on temps here today. P/C this morning had 38* (39?) for a high. Managed a 45.2.

42.7/25.

Haha, sorry. I was trying to imply that you did not think it was a decent winter but I did think it was decent.

I left out a comma, damn English language.

[powderfreak]

Ill be in stowe for beginning of march. Give me a qpf bomb tracking over ORH/BOS on day 1 then that sits over FVE for upslope day 2/3 .

Me and PF rejoice. A nice 40" er

 

Not a 40-incher but the GFS is heading in the right direction for early March, lol.  This would result in a decent vacation in fantasy land

 

[weathafella]

Not a 40-incher but the GFS is heading in the right direction for early March, lol. This would result in a decent vacation in fantasy land

Lol... He may be back home by then....

[moneypitmike]

Not a 40-incher but the GFS is heading in the right direction for early March, lol.  This would result in a decent vacation in fantasy land

 

 

That solution would risk dropping my grade to a C+.

[moneypitmike]

No cigar on the 18z GFS for Wednesday.

[CoastalWx]

Probably another 24 hrs for any notable changes to occur for Wednesday. The energy is coming straight from the N pole so it's not the most easily sampled area for data.