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Pattern reload cold and snow discussion last week of February


Ginx snewx

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I could care less what the GFS shows. We are back to those days again it seems. I like a region wide 3-6 maybe 4-8 cape

Upton likes the Euro. Not sure what they like up your way.

 

 

AS THE PV DESCENDS INTO ONTARIO MID WEEK...A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT...AND THEN PASS OHD ON WED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...WITH AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PASSING JUST SE OF 40N/70W PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF...CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER AT LEAST A MEDIUM IMPACT SNOWFALL. WINDS DURING THE EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE INTO WED NIGHT AS SNOW ENDS...WITH WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY MEETING ADVY CRITERIA WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS TEMPS THERE FALL TO NEAR ZERO. EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ELSEWHERE WED NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 BELOW TOWARD MORNING.
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You guys bail and as has happened all year the storm trends back NW . Pattern again argues for a closer in storm. Arctic front gets hung up just to our south, look how this weekend front got hung up. Same deal mid week.

Bail is a strong word, but it's not favorable. This weekend was always supposed to be mild.

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Same thoughts as yesterday. Mid week looks meh to me. Euro took another tick southeast last night, which is not a good sign. Two runs in a row. It's probably correcting back to other guidance, that is moving slightly northwest. The end result if that's the case is a light event at best. That's not the direction you want the euro going at this time frame, when all other guidance had been pretty dry.

I want it to snow just as bad as everyone else, but it doesn't look all that appetizing right now. An inch or two, maybe the cape scores an advisory event. Unless we see pronounced changes, this is nothing special

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today's highs in CT will be cooler than yesterday. All forecasts I saw had today cooler. Just another day of massive snowmelt but today at least it's cloudy

39.1F and lots of high clouds here...not exactly a melt-off like the previous days, mostly light melting.

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