IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12z NAM is about an inch or two of snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This was the DGEX for this storm alone. It's completely dry after early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Hour 66 850`s Minus 8 Hour 69 850`s Minus 10 , So after 50 on Sunday , we cool down fast ala Monday post SB . The 12z NAM looks to be about .35 From Trenton up to NYC . Post post SB was .75 , but a very similar evolution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 700 VVs are very good in the area of max qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12z NAM is about an inch or two of snow for most. More than an inch or two...looks more like 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 More than an inch or two...looks more like 2-4" Not from what I looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The issue will be how fast the BL can cool down after the frontal passage. If it can cool down quickly, there can be a couple or a few inches, but if it's 36-38 degrees for much of the precip, it might come down as a mix or nonaccumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Not from what I looked at. 0.25+ Nam looks cold enough for mostly snow. 1-3/2-4 inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 it's mostly overnight too right? That will help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 4K NAM loop to hour 60 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014022112/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 0.25+ Nam looks cold enough for mostly snow. 1-3/2-4 inches on this run. At hour 60 when the precipitation is moving in the surface freezing line is back to central PA and Upstate NY. It's going to cool but temperatures are going to be marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 4K NAM loop to hour 60 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014022112/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus.html And what's happening at hour 60? The eastern most precip is falling as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 On that loop looks like anyone along and north of RT.78 would be all snow (as you can see the very light precip starting to break out in N NJ is snow), maybe some mix/rain south of that to start. Should be a similar temp profile / look as the post SB storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 And what's happening at hour 60? The eastern most precip is falling as rain.question is does this thing blow its top approaching the coast - and the heavier precip cools the columns and there is a changeover to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 And what's happening at hour 60? The eastern most precip is falling as rain. BL will starts you as rain as per 4k NAM , You couldn`t possibly deduce as 850`s get to Minus 10 with .35 falling you rain do you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On that loop looks like anyone along and north of RT.78 would be all snow (as you can see the very light precip starting to break out in N NJ is snow), maybe some mix/rain south of that to start. Should be a similar temp profile / look as the post SB storm. Yeah but its near 50 a few hours earlier and we definitely lose some precip to very wet snow.. Not saying it will end up the way but looks like 2" tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah but its near 50 a few hours earlier and we definitely lose some precip to very wet snow.. Not saying it will end up the way but looks like 2" tops Hour 60 4KM 850` s are already Minus 2 .. The NAM is a degree or 2 higher , but the precip is 6 hours away and the BL and 850`s are cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS is not impressed with this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Hour 60 4KM 850` s are already Minus 2 .. The NAM is a degree or 2 higher , but the precip is 6 hours away and the BL and 850`s are cooling Temperatures near the coast are near 40 degrees and in parts of Monmouth they are over 40. We'll wet bulb some but ti's un realistic to expect or forecast more than 1-2". Isolated 3" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 It was 55-60F 12 hours before SB storm began as snow. Could lose a touch to wet snow/mix but think most will be accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS is not impressed with this wave. It has virtually zero precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Was it too early to see how the RGEM would have played out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It was 55-60F 12 hours before SB storm began as snow. Could lose a touch to wet snow/mix but think most will be accumulating snow. Why do people insist on comparing these two events. That was a southern jet system that blew up offshore and was enhanced due to subsidence to our northwest. This is a redeveloping clipper that looks for the most part moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 this never looked promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On the other hand, the GFS looks great for the system around the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On the other hand, the GFS looks great for the system around the 26th. How much QPF Yanks fan for the 26th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 How much QPF Yanks fan for the 26th? Hard to tell because graphics include the rain for today and the very light snow for Sunday night but looks like around 0.20-0.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The graphics on SV are nowhere near as generous Isn't that Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS has good lift in a narrow area from E PA into NJ and NYC from 90-102 hours in association with that frontal wave. Looks good for a brief 1-3/2-4 refresher. The system behind it looks more energetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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