Zelocita Weather Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Gfs went from next to nothing to 0.25" in one run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 On 2/22/2014 at 9:50 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Gfs went from next to nothing to 0.25" in one run.... Is it snow though? Hopefully we don't waste too much QPF on rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS is just a terrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 On 2/22/2014 at 9:52 PM, Snow88 said: GFS is just a terrible model it is. Just laughable the changes within one run for the 1st 24 hrs. Which makes you believe at any time it will get aboard the Wed threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It looks like a 1-3" type event but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS and NAM in pretty good agreement of .25-.50 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z GEFS supports OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 21z SREF plumes all pretty much 1-2" area wide for this. Including Bridgeport Connecticut at 1.74" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Nam went from 1-3 at 18z to nothing at 00z. Typical nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 This is no way to make a forecast. I was first thinking not much for Monday morning, then the NAM and the GFS went on board, so I end up making a bad forecast. I should of listened to the HPC discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 0 z nam. No woman to cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 4k ain't much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/22/2014 at 9:52 PM, Snow88 said: GFS is just a terrible model why is it terrible? because it didnt show snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 GFS has shown great improvement this winter it even beat out the ECMWF several times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 2:57 AM, Mitchel Volk said: GFS has shown great improvement this winter it even beat out the ECMWF several times this winter. It could very well do it again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 00z RGEM not enthused either, In fact, looks a like the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The RGEM has overall never looked to great with this so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Surprised to see upton has 2-4" north and 1-3" south for Sunday night .. Mostly off the 18z runs of nam and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 They also raised Mondays forecast high from 29-39 degrees Monday .. Hmmm seems a bit high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Like me they were fooled too. Next time I will think twice before I jumped the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 3:28 AM, Mitchel Volk said: Like me they were fooled too. Next time I will think twice before I jumped the gun. What do you think about highs in the 40s in the city, 40 for me we'll inland.. I think that's way overdone, 850s -12 to -16 thickness 510-516 cold air advection all day no way it's 40-45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Looks like a Cape May jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 3:35 AM, Absolute Humidity said: Looks like a Cape May jackpot. If "jackpot" is under 1/100th" of liquid equivalent, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 3:36 AM, Juliancolton said: If "jackpot" is under 1/100th" of liquid equivalent, I suppose.its sarcasm but it's actually at least 1/25th of an inch since 25 mm LE is roughy 1" of LE. Generally .5 - 1" or 1-2.5" mm LE (at least what falls). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 3:40 AM, Absolute Humidity said: its sarcasm but it's actually at least 1/25th of an inch since 25 mm LE is roughy 1" of LE. Generally .5 - 1" or 1-2.5" mm LE (at least what falls). Whoops, you're right. Either way, still pretty depressing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 3:42 AM, Juliancolton said: Whoops, you're right. Either way, still pretty depressing! Terrible trends for sure, but was not going to be much anyway. Any snow that falls from here on out, I consider bonus snow after such an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 3:26 AM, JGNYK03 said: They also raised Mondays forecast high from 29-39 degrees Monday .. Hmmm seems a bit high The 39 degree high must be at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 4:33 AM, FreeRain said: The 39 degree high must be at midnight. On Monday? No sunny and 40 is my forecast high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 On 2/23/2014 at 3:24 AM, JGNYK03 said: Surprised to see upton has 2-4" north and 1-3" south for Sunday night .. Mostly off the 18z runs of nam and GFS Sunday's high temps are forecast to be in the 50's. It is going to take a fast and big drop for it to get cold enough for any snow to accumulate in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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