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2/23-2/24 Potential Frontal Wave


Zelocita Weather

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so you forgot about saturday?

EPO was pos as was the PNA was NEG , Both going back to where they were in Jan .  NEG EPO  POS PNA   Big difference , you`re gona press the cold air Sand you`re gona  develop a nice ridge axis out W so they have a chance to deepen and come North  .

Not all work out , but if the NAO goes NEG ,  then you may really have a chance to slow the flow down .

( too much of a press and you could shunt em ) . But its not bad set up sitting here today . 

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EPO was pos as was the PNA was NEG , Both going back to where they were in Jan . NEG EPO POS PNA Big difference , you`re gona press the cold air Sand you`re gona develop a nice ridge axis out W so they have a chance to deepen and come North .

Not all work out , but if the NAO goes NEG , then you may really have a chance to slow the flow down .

( too much of a press and you could shunt em ) . But its not bad set up sitting here today .

Not a bad setup at all for the next 7-10 days but the thing that concerns me most is suppression with that PV that looks like it wants to make a return in a big way

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Unlike January, I think suppression is less of a problem heading into March due to the change in wave lengths and a more active subtropical jet.

There is a  real difference here , the NAO goes NEG ,It will always help in slowing down the flow , and that`s how you get 

large cold storms over a large area , but you always run the risk of  suppression .  That`s part making that deal . 

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There is a  real difference here , the NAO goes NEG ,It will always help in slowing down the flow , and that`s how you get 

large cold storms over a large area , but you always run the risk of  suppression .  That`s part making that deal . 

if it actually goes negative that is.  Models have shown west based NAO this season only to lose it a few runs later.

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if it actually goes negative that is.  Models have shown west based NAO this season only to lose it a few runs later.

 

12z Euro backed off  to neutral from its 0z look  . Which is fine with me because now I look for one of the arctic waves to phase on the EC next week and come N .

Mon - Tues will do better on the coast , its where arctic waves do best .

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This looks like the 2/3 event

I'm really not seeing the similarities at all. This is a clipper, that storm wasn't. This has more similarities to last weekend and last Monday night, although the area probably won't be skipped over as much like it was with those. The transfer looks more gradual.

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I'm really not seeing the similarities at all. This is a clipper, that storm wasn't. This has more similarities to last weekend and last Monday night, although the area probably won't be skipped over as much like it was with those. The transfer looks more gradual.

It was weak wave that moved to the south of us like 2/3, but your right this is not STJ influencedgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

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It was weak wave that moved to the south of us like 2/3, but your right this is not STJ influencedgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

Yeah that storm was pure southern stream energy that just kept ticking further and further NW. Seems like we've been seeing this a lot this winter, and in normal winters we would have killed for a storm like that. This winter will definitely go down as one of the greats of my lifetime. Deep, long duration arctic outbreaks. Several days with lows below zero. Constant threats to follow with many of them actually coming to fruition. It really makes you feel like we're going to finish with a really big one before all is said and done. Of course the atmosphere will be transitioning in March, shorter wave lengths, ect. and patterns can change on a dime.

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Yeah that storm was pure southern stream energy that just kept ticking further and further NW. Seems like we've been seeing this a lot this winter, and in normal winters we would have killed for a storm like that. This winter will definitely go down as one of the greats of my lifetime. Deep, long duration arctic outbreaks. Several days with lows below zero. Constant threats to follow with many of them actually coming to fruition. It really makes you feel like we're going to finish with a really big one before all is said and done. Of course the atmosphere will be transitioning in March, shorter wave lengths, ect. and patterns can change on a dime.

This winter is 1993-94 Part II

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doesn't WPC have that front south and east of all guidance ?

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