Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GGEM shows a more robust system, GFS hinting at something with light snow, EURO TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The GGEM was not all that great. Somewhere between 0.50" and 0.75" total QPF including the rain for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 These storms have been trending more amped up and wetter this entire season and i see no reason for it to be different this time. Some notable changes and it is a 3-6/4-8 snowfall for most..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 These storms have been trending more amped up and wetter this entire season and i see no reason for it to be different this time. Some notable changes and it is a 3-6/4-8 snowfall for most..... so you forgot about saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 so you forgot about saturday? Next weekends "BECS" on the EURO? Yea until monday/tuesday, i was just throwing hypothetical analysis and input out there today. Lots can change between now and then but the potential is enormous no doubt about that forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 CMC http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 so you forgot about saturday? EPO was pos as was the PNA was NEG , Both going back to where they were in Jan . NEG EPO POS PNA Big difference , you`re gona press the cold air Sand you`re gona develop a nice ridge axis out W so they have a chance to deepen and come North . Not all work out , but if the NAO goes NEG , then you may really have a chance to slow the flow down . ( too much of a press and you could shunt em ) . But its not bad set up sitting here today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 EPO was pos as was the PNA was NEG , Both going back to where they were in Jan . NEG EPO POS PNA Big difference , you`re gona press the cold air Sand you`re gona develop a nice ridge axis out W so they have a chance to deepen and come North . Not all work out , but if the NAO goes NEG , then you may really have a chance to slow the flow down . ( too much of a press and you could shunt em ) . But its not bad set up sitting here today . Not a bad setup at all for the next 7-10 days but the thing that concerns me most is suppression with that PV that looks like it wants to make a return in a big way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Unlike January, I think suppression is less of a problem heading into March due to the change in wave lengths and a more active subtropical jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Unlike January, I think suppression is less of a problem heading into March due to the change in wave lengths and a more active subtropical jet. There is a real difference here , the NAO goes NEG ,It will always help in slowing down the flow , and that`s how you get large cold storms over a large area , but you always run the risk of suppression . That`s part making that deal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 NAM looking good for a few inches in the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 NAM looking good for a few inches in the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There is a real difference here , the NAO goes NEG ,It will always help in slowing down the flow , and that`s how you get large cold storms over a large area , but you always run the risk of suppression . That`s part making that deal . if it actually goes negative that is. Models have shown west based NAO this season only to lose it a few runs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 if it actually goes negative that is. Models have shown west based NAO this season only to lose it a few runs later. 12z Euro backed off to neutral from its 0z look . Which is fine with me because now I look for one of the arctic waves to phase on the EC next week and come N . Mon - Tues will do better on the coast , its where arctic waves do best . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 18z GFS is looking pretty good for Sunday night into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This looks like the 2/3 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 18z GFS has a stripe of 2-4" from I-78 north in NJ and east into SE NY with a general 1-2" for central NJ, the LHV and most of New England and PA. Central PA around State College looks to also see 2-4". QPF is generally only a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This looks like the 2/3 event I'm really not seeing the similarities at all. This is a clipper, that storm wasn't. This has more similarities to last weekend and last Monday night, although the area probably won't be skipped over as much like it was with those. The transfer looks more gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm really not seeing the similarities at all. This is a clipper, that storm wasn't. This has more similarities to last weekend and last Monday night, although the area probably won't be skipped over as much like it was with those. The transfer looks more gradual. It was weak wave that moved to the south of us like 2/3, but your right this is not STJ influenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It was weak wave that moved to the south of us like 2/3, but your right this is not STJ influenced Yeah that storm was pure southern stream energy that just kept ticking further and further NW. Seems like we've been seeing this a lot this winter, and in normal winters we would have killed for a storm like that. This winter will definitely go down as one of the greats of my lifetime. Deep, long duration arctic outbreaks. Several days with lows below zero. Constant threats to follow with many of them actually coming to fruition. It really makes you feel like we're going to finish with a really big one before all is said and done. Of course the atmosphere will be transitioning in March, shorter wave lengths, ect. and patterns can change on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 18z GFS has 3 arctic front wave opportunities we should watch out for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Yeah that storm was pure southern stream energy that just kept ticking further and further NW. Seems like we've been seeing this a lot this winter, and in normal winters we would have killed for a storm like that. This winter will definitely go down as one of the greats of my lifetime. Deep, long duration arctic outbreaks. Several days with lows below zero. Constant threats to follow with many of them actually coming to fruition. It really makes you feel like we're going to finish with a really big one before all is said and done. Of course the atmosphere will be transitioning in March, shorter wave lengths, ect. and patterns can change on a dime. This winter is 1993-94 Part II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Amazingly enough these threats are not that far away. This one is just now starting to jump on us though it's difficult to know if we'll get something or not but I could see another 1-3/2-4" event out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 DGEX likes the storm. 2-4/3-6" type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 OPC 96hr surface cast 1005mb on the BM http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif WPC has it south and east http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg GFS 90hr SLP http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_090.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 OPC 96hr surface cast 1005mb on the BM A_96hrbw.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif WPC has it south and east d4.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg GFS 90hr SLP gfsUS_sfc_prec_090.gif http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_090.gif doesn't WPC have that front south and east of all guidance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 NAM 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 NAM 0z looks like it would last about as long and same amounts as the tuesday 2/18 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like a squall line to me dropping a quick coating to as much as 3" in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like a squall line to me dropping a quick coating to as much as 3" in general. This is at 1am, no problem accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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