MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 And March 1 storm? Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 EURO has been the only model on our side for Wednesday storm, so the fact that it went east tonight is a bad sign. Still time, but not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 While the Euro went East, other guidance went west and north. Plenty of cold air just need this to blow up a little closer to the coast. Still a lot can change SREF's going west and NAM looking close give me hope this could be interesting. This is the winter it wants to snow so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Anyone who is writing this threat off completely we still have 3 full days plenty of time for improvements either direction way to early to tell by 12Z monday hopefully we will have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 EURO has been the only model on our side for Wednesday storm, so the fact that it went east tonight is a bad sign. Still time, but not looking good. Uggh-thanks for delivering the awesome news. Seriously though, wouldn't count anything out this winter until 60-72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 it is becoming apparent that this system is going to to be just far enough east to only give most of the metro 1- 3 inches at most - HPC only going for light amounts http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Weekend system ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Weekend system ftw! That on is also looking to go south/east of our area, as per the NWS. For now... THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE TREND HAS BEEN TO KEEP IT VERY FAR TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 That on is also looking to go south/east of our area, as per the NWS. For now... THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE TREND HAS BEEN TO KEEP IT VERY FAR TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off check the latest guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 check the latest guidance Threw you a bone ralph wiggum. Thread started for the weekend threat, weenie out brotha . Try to add constructive snipets though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 check the latest guidance From whom? Someone better at meteorology than the NWS? Please share then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 From whom? Someone better at meteorology than the NWS? Please share then.no one is better...just saying the ggem ukmet and gfs moved towards a storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 it is becoming apparent that this system is going to to be just far enough east to only give most of the metro 1- 3 inches at most - HPC only going for light amounts http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif For now but we know not to take any model seriously until the day before. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 From whom? Someone better at meteorology than the NWS? Please share then. NWS is not perfect and far from it, they put out a forecast last night for 24 hours out saying 2-4" for tonight. So for tonight's forecast a lot of forecasts will be better than the NWS from last night. They also had a high of 40 for my area tomorrow as of last night again, we won't go above freezing tomorrow, so again a lot of forecasts will be better than NWS for tomorrow too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 NWS is not perfect and far from it, they put out a forecast last night for 24 hours out saying 2-4" for tonight. So for tonight's forecast a lot of forecasts will be better than the NWS from last night. They also had a high of 40 for my area tomorrow as of last night again, we won't go above freezing tomorrow, so again a lot of forecasts will be better than NWS for tomorrow too.. I remeber how that looked: 2-4 in forcast was for parts of CT. and trending down to 1-3 NW and up to an inch in NYC . So, with respect, saying they forcast 2-4 in for tonight is a misnomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 this potential is still alive the 12Z NAM (out of its accurate range ) is showing the system further north and closer to the coast what may happen starting today is the models will get better sampling and the storm may come closer to the coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014022312/namconus_ref_frzn_us_24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I remeber how that looked: 2-4 in forcast was for parts of CT. and trending down to 1-3 NW and up to an inch in NYC . So, with respect, saying they forcast 2-4 in for tonight is a misnomer. Sure, but 2-4" was forecast though, point is 2-4" was forecast for the northern 1/3rd of upton and we are getting flurries, far from accurate 24 hours out, point is weather changes every second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 this potential is still alive the 12Z NAM (out of its accurate range ) is showing the system further north and closer to the coast what may happen starting today is the models will get better sampling and the storm may come closer to the coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014022312/namconus_ref_frzn_us_24.png This storm is a perfect example of this winter. Not done trending till nowcasting, still think this comes further north. Warning event for atleast coastal locals is my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Not much worthwhile, at this range. But you see shortwave digging more to our west on the NAM. That pulls the baroclinic zone and low developing on it, further NW. We want this to be the trend all the guidance today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 NWS is not perfect and far from it, they put out a forecast last night for 24 hours out saying 2-4" for tonight. So for tonight's forecast a lot of forecasts will be better than the NWS from last night. They also had a high of 40 for my area tomorrow as of last night again, we won't go above freezing tomorrow, so again a lot of forecasts will be better than NWS for tomorrow too.. Never said they were perfect - given the chaotic nature of weather, nobody is ever going to be perfect or even close to it, even 24 hours out. But I think, on average, they're the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 GFS is still south and east. Only gives the area really light precip. Here was the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Upton AS THE PV DESCENDS INTO ONTARIO MID WEEK...A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT...AND THEN PASS OHD ON WED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...WITH AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PASSING JUST SE OF 40N/70W PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF...CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER AT LEAST A MEDIUM IMPACT SNOWFALL. WINDS DURING THE EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE INTO WED NIGHT AS SNOW ENDS...WITH WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY MEETING ADVY CRITERIA WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS TEMPS THERE FALL TO NEAR ZERO. EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ELSEWHERE WED NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 BELOW TOWARD MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 GGEM is still OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 12Z GFS is closer to the coast will be interesting to see the ensembles - should be at least a few hits on them http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 run the loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-wv-24 enough push>>>>> to dig this system in our favor???? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_24hrbw.gif Current 200mb Layer http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= take note of the 100kt jet streak working its way east this should help pump up the ridge out west -imho- yes.... I am reaching today, for the snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 12Z NavGEM.....I still think this will be a 1-4 inch deal even though the GFS still wants a shutout..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The NAVGEM is a suppression biased model, will that be a good sign for the Euro? let's wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 JMA http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro is further east and weaker. Ehhh. Not a good sign. Moving towards the other models. What a shame though. Another Euro fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It hangs energy back like the other guidance so the trough goes negative too late for more than light snow. That was the adjustment that the Euro made 0z and holds again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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