green tube Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Considering upton is now going with 60% pops Tuesday night and Wednesday clearly they dont believe the euro is out to lunch anyone know how pops are determined? mt. holly by comparison has 40% tues night, 50% wednesday, immediately south of the city (among other places) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 anyone know how pops are determined? mt. holly by comparison has 40% tues night, 50% wednesday, immediately south of the city (among other places) I'm not sure. But I think they use a blend of models... and hoping they lean towards what they feel is right using their meteorological expertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I gladly pay for his thoughts. He's one of my few heroes. I am also honored that you take a moment to consider what I think. I just do not see the the type of setup for the Euro solution.The PV is looking like it wants to become a semi-immovable feature in SE Canada. Flow underneath is super fast. No ridge axis. That is all I am saying. The best part is I am wrong more than I am right and everyone wins if that's the case. And there's you're difference. At 96 hours the Euro with a plus 3 SD PNA , so that ridge axis argues for this this come. Now the GFS at 96 is blowing westerlies into Colorado so it flattens the ridge in front of it and its OTS But to me that smells of GFS error. Too fast into the west coast and in turn it will be south and east with BM storms 3 and 4 days out it should correct when it sees its too fast into cali and should pop the ridge like the euro ( yes JB taught me that ) My only issue was. It's ova. Debate is great , and I am not always right. But I am wiling to write down what I think and those are welcome to pull it apart. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro ensembles look the same as OP, can someone with QPF maps clarify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 anyone know how pops are determined? mt. holly by comparison has 40% tues night, 50% wednesday, immediately south of the city (among other places) Upton's AFD explains their thinking in reasonable depth: AS THE PV DESCENDS INTO ONTARIO MID WEEK...A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT...AND THEN PASS OHD ON WED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...WITH AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PASSING JUST SE OF 40N/70W PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF...CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER AT LEAST A MEDIUM IMPACT SNOWFALL. MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH VIA INTERACTION OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS...AND POSSIBLE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS IN THE COLD AIR MASS...COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION LONG ISLAND IN THE HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Right now I would probably go conservative like WPC and up the amounts if the Euro is still showing this solution by Monday. I would rather gradually build up than have to dial back as we get closer. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Mt.Holly AFD to keep things flowing http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off AFTER THIS, ATTN TURNS ONCE AGAIN TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GLFMEX TUE NIGHT THAT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA CST ERLY WED. THEN IT MOVESNEWD TWD THE CAN MARITIMES DURG THE DAY ON WED. THE GFS AND CMCHAVE A MORE EWD TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING MINIMAL IMPACT TO THEAREA. THE ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE WWD TRACK WHICHWOULD BRING SNOW. BASED ON OUR TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER OF MOREWWD TRACKS AND THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE OF LATE, THE ECMWF SEEMSLIKE THE BETTER SOLN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NORMALLYGOOD UKMET IS DOWNPLAYING THIS SYS AS WELL. SO WHILE WE WILLCONTINUE TO TREND TWD THE ECMWF, CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGHATTM. THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYS. BASED ON ITSCURRENT TRACK(FAMOUS LAST WORDS...) IT WOULD SEEM TO BE A HIGH ENDADVY LOW END WRNG EVENT. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER,THESE THINGS SEEM TO RAMP UP AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. WE WILL SEEIF THOSE TRENDS CONTINUE.ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE COMING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN SNOWFALLING DURG THE DAY SOMETIMES HAS A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING UNLESSIT COMES DOWN HARD. GRANTED, THIS AMS LOOKS TO BE COLD, BUT ITSNOT ERLY JAN ANYMORE. CERTAINLY OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS THERE COULDBE SOME MIXED PRECIP AND EVEN SOME RAIN, DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATETRACK AND OF COURSE TEMPS. FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS, ITS ALL SNOW. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12®ion=he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow, MJO looks very favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z nam is trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Thank you for the support randy and most of the NYC crew. I enjoy giving the pbp as the info is not available to everyone. I'm not sure what weatherx issue is with me, and I could care less. I don't give much info for sne or costal ct as I really am not to concerned what happens there. NYC was .37 this run and at 00z .41. Still a very solid hit for the metro area. Again I don't care what's going on in ct..ens again are very close to the op. Thanks again everyone ECMWF ensembles show the mean low of sub 1000mb passing just SE of the benchmark with mod precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow, MJO looks very favorable Wow. Really strong MJO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Thank you for the support randy and most of the NYC crew. I enjoy giving the pbp as the info is not available to everyone. I'm not sure what weatherx issue is with me, and I could care less. I don't give much info for sne or costal ct as I really am not to concerned what happens there. NYC was .37 this run and at 00z .41. Still a very solid hit for the metro area. Again I don't care what's going on in ct..ens again are very close to the op. Thanks again everyone ECMWF ensembles show the mean low of sub 1000mb passing just SE of the benchmark with mod precip over the area You do good work here and thanks, it's appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Actually SW CT is technically considered part of the NYC metro area if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Actually SW CT is technically considered part of the NYC metro area if I'm not mistaken. yes, BDR (Bridgeport is part of the NYC reporting area) Fairfield Cty is considered part of NYC metro for TV radio sports among other things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Anyone have the Euro ensembles for the weekend system? At work without access.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Any word on whether the GFS is biting on this threat yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Any word on whether the GFS is biting on this threat yet? Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS has the low, it's just well south and east. Not a bad place to be on the GFS. Assuming the Euro is onto something, we may see a sudden lurch north and west as we often see with this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You know it is possible for this to miss us and never trend favorably and it is possible the Euro is out to lunch. Both those for and against this threat should be given the benefit of the doubt. I'm for it because I see it's a southern stream system, you have a very nice PNA ridge and strongly amplified flow, and the Euro has done very well with these systems, so I can't discount what it shows unless it back off significantly. The flow is still very fast and progressive, so it's quite possible that the storm isn't able to turn the corner or move close enough to give us some snow. We've seen systems this season that were well offshore but still gave us snow, but this one will rely on how close it can come to give us some snow, phasing will also be an issue. I'll give it a few days and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 18Z NavGEM matches the GFS closely on low placement, it also took a notable shift NW last few runs, I'm becoming more confident the Euro may be correct on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 LOL. SW CT is the forgotten area, no one in NYC cares about us and no one in NE does either. SNE forum is awesome, but it's very Boston based. 3 hrs away for me. Would be like me reading the philly forum for my weather. So I read/comment in both. Sorry if that bothers you. I think some folks in here need a lesson in common sense...the bpt, fairfield , trumbull area is an hour's drive from nyc. I know there's a ton of people on this forum more than an hours drive from nyc....many parts of nj , east end of LI....SW ct is always included in snowmaps on the nyc news broadcasts...and our weather is almost always very similar to nyc/ lower westchester...can't believe that some weather geeks can't read a map........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Thank you for the support randy and most of the NYC crew. I enjoy giving the pbp as the info is not available to everyone. I'm not sure what weatherx issue is with me, and I could care less. I don't give much info for sne or costal ct as I really am not to concerned what happens there. NYC was .37 this run and at 00z .41. Still a very solid hit for the metro area. Again I don't care what's going on in ct..ens again are very close to the op. Thanks again everyone ECMWF ensembles show the mean low of sub 1000mb passing just SE of the benchmark with mod precip over the area SW Connecticut I believe is part of our forum. I would think that the best pbp person for this area would agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Im shocked that people on here don't know this. Upton's CWA is NENJ, SENY, NYC, LI and Southern Conn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Im shocked that people on here don't know this. Upton's CWA is NENJ, SENY, NYC, LI and Southern Conn Dont forget CNJ, ala TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Mt Holly covers the rest of NJ....as well as Philly metro and other areas that are not discussed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 18Z NavGEM matches the GFS closely on low placement, it also took a notable shift NW last few runs, I'm becoming more confident the Euro may be correct on this. It's encouraging to hear you say this since you were thinking the Euro was out to lunch earlier today. The NW shifts on multiple models, coupled with the Euro staying steadfast, certainly indicate (to me) that there is a better than average chance for snow from this, especially south and east in our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 the EURO has been the most consistent and we look for consistency in model suites both OP/Ensemble runs. the banter in here earlier was just plain and simple forgetting all around fundamentals of model analysis with meteorology and relying on what model(s) has the more sensible solution given the pattern. Models should be coming back north by tomorrow and although this wont be a SECS/MECS it will lay the ground work for the nice pattern we're entering next week for the next 7-14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 the EURO has been the most consistent and we look for consistency in model suites both OP/Ensemble runs. the banter in here earlier was just plain and simple forgetting all around fundamentals of model analysis with meteorology and relying on what model(s) has the more sensible solution given the pattern. Models should be coming back north by tomorrow and although this wont be a SECS/MECS it will lay the ground work for the nice pattern we're entering next week for the next 7-14 days For what it's worth, it's always 36 degrees and raining in West Islip on your thing. I don't know why this bothers me, but it does. And, for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Mt Holly covers the rest of NJ....as well as Philly metro and other areas that are not discussed here.Mt Holly covers Monmouth county and it practically touches NYC yet Upton covers Orange County. I'd like to know how they figured that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Mt Holly covers Monmouth county and it practically touches NYC yet Upton covers Orange County. I'd like to know how they figured that one out. Years ago Monmouth and Middlesex counties were ceeded off to Mt Holly due to population increase in the NYC WFO. So we're kind of like refugees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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