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2/26/2014 Potential Snowstorm


NEG NAO

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anyone know how pops are determined? mt. holly by comparison has 40% tues night, 50% wednesday, immediately south of the city (among other places)

I'm not sure. But I think they use a blend of models... and hoping they lean towards what they feel is right using their meteorological expertise.

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I gladly pay for his thoughts. He's one of my few heroes. I am also honored that you take a moment to consider what I think. I just do not see the the type of setup for the Euro solution.The PV is looking like it wants to become a semi-immovable feature in SE Canada. Flow underneath is super fast. No ridge axis.

That is all I am saying. The best part is I am wrong more than I am right and everyone wins if that's the case.

And there's you're difference. At 96 hours the Euro with a plus 3 SD PNA , so that ridge axis argues for this this come. Now the GFS at 96 is blowing westerlies into Colorado so it flattens the ridge in front of it and its OTS

But to me that smells of GFS error. Too fast into the west coast and in turn it will be south and east with BM storms 3 and 4 days out it should correct when it sees its too fast into cali and should pop the ridge like the euro ( yes JB taught me that )

My only issue was. It's ova. Debate is great , and I am not always right. But I am wiling to write down what I think and those are welcome to pull it apart.

Peace.

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anyone know how pops are determined?  mt. holly by comparison has 40% tues night, 50% wednesday, immediately south of the city (among other places)

 

Upton's AFD explains their thinking in reasonable depth:

 

 

AS THE PV DESCENDS INTO ONTARIO MID WEEK...A POTENT MID LEVEL

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT...AND THEN

PASS OHD ON WED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS

ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...WITH AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW

PASSING JUST SE OF 40N/70W PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE

ECMWF...CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER AT LEAST A MEDIUM IMPACT SNOWFALL.

MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF

AN INVERTED TROUGH VIA INTERACTION OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE NRN

STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS...AND POSSIBLE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS IN

THE COLD AIR MASS...COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY

ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION LONG ISLAND IN THE HWO

FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

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Mt.Holly AFD

to keep things flowing  :bag: 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

AFTER THIS, ATTN TURNS ONCE AGAIN TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GLFMEX

TUE NIGHT THAT MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA CST ERLY WED. THEN IT MOVES
NEWD TWD THE CAN MARITIMES DURG THE DAY ON WED. THE GFS AND CMC
HAVE A MORE EWD TRACK WHICH WOULD BRING MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE
AREA. THE ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE WWD TRACK WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW. BASED ON OUR TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER OF MORE
WWD TRACKS AND THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE OF LATE, THE ECMWF SEEMS
LIKE THE BETTER SOLN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NORMALLY
GOOD UKMET IS DOWNPLAYING THIS SYS AS WELL. SO WHILE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TWD THE ECMWF, CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
ATTM.
THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYS. BASED ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK(FAMOUS LAST WORDS...) IT WOULD SEEM TO BE A HIGH END
ADVY LOW END WRNG EVENT. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER,
THESE THINGS SEEM TO RAMP UP AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. WE WILL SEE
IF THOSE TRENDS CONTINUE.

ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE COMING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN SNOW
FALLING DURG THE DAY SOMETIMES HAS A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING UNLESS
IT COMES DOWN HARD. GRANTED, THIS AMS LOOKS TO BE COLD, BUT ITS
NOT ERLY JAN ANYMORE. CERTAINLY OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS THERE COULD
BE SOME MIXED PRECIP AND EVEN SOME RAIN, DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE
TRACK AND OF COURSE TEMPS. FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS, ITS ALL SNOW.

 

 

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12&region=he

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Thank you for the support randy and most of the NYC crew. I enjoy giving the pbp as the info is not available to everyone. I'm not sure what weatherx issue is with me, and I could care less. I don't give much info for sne or costal ct as I really am not to concerned what happens there. NYC was .37 this run and at 00z .41. Still a very solid hit for the metro area. Again I don't care what's going on in ct..ens again are very close to the op. Thanks again everyone

ECMWF ensembles show the mean low of sub 1000mb passing just SE of the benchmark with mod precip over the area

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Thank you for the support randy and most of the NYC crew. I enjoy giving the pbp as the info is not available to everyone. I'm not sure what weatherx issue is with me, and I could care less. I don't give much info for sne or costal ct as I really am not to concerned what happens there. NYC was .37 this run and at 00z .41. Still a very solid hit for the metro area. Again I don't care what's going on in ct..ens again are very close to the op. Thanks again everyone

ECMWF ensembles show the mean low of sub 1000mb passing just SE of the benchmark with mod precip over the area

You do good work here and thanks, it's appreciated.
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You know it is possible for this to miss us and never trend favorably and it is possible the Euro is out to lunch. Both those for and against this threat should be given the benefit of the doubt. I'm for it because I see it's a southern stream system, you have a very nice PNA ridge and strongly amplified flow, and the Euro has done very well with these systems, so I can't discount what it shows unless it back off significantly. 

 

The flow is still very fast and progressive, so it's quite possible that the storm isn't able to turn the corner or move close enough to give us some snow. We've seen systems this season that were well offshore but still gave us snow, but this one will rely on how close it can come to give us some snow, phasing will also be an issue. I'll give it a few days and see what happens.

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LOL.  SW CT is the forgotten area, no one in NYC cares about us and no one in NE does either.  SNE forum is awesome, but it's very Boston based.  3 hrs away for me.  Would be like me reading the philly forum for my weather.  So I read/comment in both.   Sorry if that bothers you.

I think some folks in here need a lesson in common sense...the bpt, fairfield , trumbull area is an hour's drive from nyc. I know there's a ton of people on this forum more than an hours drive from nyc....many parts of nj , east end of LI....SW ct is always included in snowmaps on the nyc news broadcasts...and our weather is almost always very similar to nyc/ lower westchester...can't believe that some weather geeks can't read a map........

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Thank you for the support randy and most of the NYC crew. I enjoy giving the pbp as the info is not available to everyone. I'm not sure what weatherx issue is with me, and I could care less. I don't give much info for sne or costal ct as I really am not to concerned what happens there. NYC was .37 this run and at 00z .41. Still a very solid hit for the metro area. Again I don't care what's going on in ct..ens again are very close to the op. Thanks again everyone

ECMWF ensembles show the mean low of sub 1000mb passing just SE of the benchmark with mod precip over the area

SW Connecticut I believe is part of our forum. I would think that the best pbp person for this area would agree with that.

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The 18Z NavGEM matches the GFS closely on low placement, it also took a notable shift NW last few runs, I'm becoming more confident the Euro may be correct on this.

 

It's encouraging to hear you say this since you were thinking the Euro was out to lunch earlier today.  The NW shifts on multiple models, coupled with the Euro staying steadfast, certainly indicate (to me) that there is a better than average chance for snow from this, especially south and east in our area...

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the EURO has been the most consistent and we look for consistency in model suites both OP/Ensemble runs. the banter in here earlier was just plain and simple forgetting all around fundamentals of model analysis with meteorology and relying on what model(s) has the more sensible solution given the pattern. Models should be coming back north by tomorrow and although this wont be a SECS/MECS it will lay the ground work for the nice pattern we're entering next week for the next 7-14 days

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the EURO has been the most consistent and we look for consistency in model suites both OP/Ensemble runs. the banter in here earlier was just plain and simple forgetting all around fundamentals of model analysis with meteorology and relying on what model(s) has the more sensible solution given the pattern. Models should be coming back north by tomorrow and although this wont be a SECS/MECS it will lay the ground work for the nice pattern we're entering next week for the next 7-14 days

For what it's worth, it's always 36 degrees and raining in West Islip on your thing.  I don't know why this bothers me, but it does.  And, for you... ;)

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Mt Holly covers Monmouth county and it practically touches NYC yet Upton covers Orange County. I'd like to know how they figured that one out.

Years ago Monmouth and Middlesex counties were ceeded off to Mt Holly due to population increase in the NYC WFO. So we're kind of like refugees here.

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