NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 As far as most of us are concerned AllSnow should do the PBP all the time! hey rossi - how about having Allsnow do a play by play of the models monday or tuesday night on your show ? Also I think its hard to argue against the Euro solution and its ensembles within 96 hours of the event since the Euro seems to be doing better lately and the GFS did show the storm a couple of days ago only to be too far east and loose it in the time frame it normally does .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Or it could be that the other models dont have a friggin clue. Well, sure but you've acquired enough weather forecasting skill over the past few years to know that when the Euro stands alone with really no support other than its own ensembles, something is amiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Maybe but why did it trend wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I love his PBP. 2 thumbs up to allsnow all the time. plus he has an awesome username. does anyone definitely know how much of the euro qpf is from prior to the main event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Well, sure but you've acquired enough weather forecasting skill over the past few years to know that when the Euro stands alone with really no support other than its own ensembles, something is amiss. WPC as of this morning is still going with a wetter solution the .50 line is just about to NYC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Maybe but why did it trend wetter? It looks like it tightened up the vmax which goes north of the metro area and left behind a trailing area of PVA which swings (in SNJ) through about 6 hours or behind. Better for southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Why are you assuming15-1 ratios.....thats thrown around too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 WPC as of this morning is still going with a wetter solution the .50 line is just about to NYC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif That's great. There also isn't much jet support for an organized area of heavy precip per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Biggest weenie forum for sure, I hope it's cold and dry so the weenies could run away. Let things play out and enough with the unnecessary squabbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Some of you guys are obsessed with qpf output. Its the least accurate parameter of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The SREFs look alot like the GFS ensembles at the end of the run, trying to phase things but just not sure how to do it, all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 allsnow does the best pbp of any of the amateurs, because he simply reports output and generally doesn't try to do analysis and especially projection into the future, which is fraught with uncertainty and often wrong when others do it. Nothing more annoying than the premature, "it's at the OBX and it's going to be a bomb at the benchmark!" only to find out a few frames later that it slid, harmlessly out to sea. His "wetter" call was accurate for some areas and not for others, but only marginally so, so I'm not sure why anyone would be upset about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Ovah three days out with the models sucking this winter? Come on man. While I agree the threat is not over, I disagree it's bc the models suck. The Euro and its ensembles are pretty much on its own right now so I'd proceed on the snow bandwagon with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Why are you assuming15-1 ratios.....thats thrown around too much This was covered yesterday. Minus 10 to minus 14 at 850. From 102 to 108 To assume that at 700 its only gona support 10 to 1 is a mistake. You are getting colder aloft. This not 10 to 1 12 to 1 will b easy and 15 to 1 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Ovah three days out with the models sucking this winter? Come on man. If the GFS was showing this potential threat (northern stream driven) you'd be all over it. Euro sucks with northern stream disturbances. It just doesn't look great as modelled right now. Flow is super fast west to east. No meridional flow with any digging. Euro is producing magic (which will not verify). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I heard the euro ensembles are nice.anyone can verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 This is the kind of stuff that doesn't belong on this forum. People need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture! Teleconnections and overall pattern is excellent. .. better than we've had all year. Threats will come and threats will eventually produce. This is like when people were saying it was overt before our last pattern materialized. People like the above poster declaring events over from three or more days out don't belong. Anytime you have a pressing and pulling back the PV a single OP models are going to have a hard figuring the SLP true placement that's why you turn to the ensembles because bad solutions tend to get washed out . With a really nice well placed ridge axis out west you would assume this comes N and arctic waves like to sit right along the warmer SST , that's what the euro ensembles see . Does it mean its right. No. But I think it is. And as long as there's a neg 3 SD EPO feeding Canada cold air any system on the EC can't ever be declared over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow! This thread is what you call "fell off a cliff" apparently we have members in here that can see into the future and the eventual outcome of the 26th storm. I agree with paul this is downright painful to read and adds zero constructive analysis to this threat. Looking forward to admin(s) taking a mop to this thread and cleaning it up. Some people need a break from this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think he's bringing some good stuff to the table not counting his pbp bashing of Allsnow and his JMA comment . Regardless I don't like the Euro being basically on it's own even though it has support from its ensembles. The teleconnections do look good but that doesn't mean this storm is a lock to produce around here. I think we should have a better idea in 24 to 36 hours whether or not we have ourselves an event. Amen. .. It's just ridiculous to try and call a threat over from this time frame. Until the euro drops it... You pay attention to it. Bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow! This thread is what you call "fell off a cliff" apparently we have members in here that can see into the future and the eventual outcome of the 26th storm. I agree with paul this is downright painful to read and adds zero constructive analysis to this threat. Looking forward to admin(s) taking a mop to this thread and cleaning it up. Some people need a break from this forum +1 People like that are the reason I don't post more often during down times like this. Just way too much incessant crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I heard the euro ensembles are nice.anyone can verify? I'm stuck on hr 36 on weatherbell and SV isn't working for me for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Stop the bickering! This winter has been very active leading to a lot of model mayhem. Plenty of hits and misses. When you have a polar vortex and the gulf open for business in March no less with increasing temperature gradient, the risk is quite high for a major storm to develop. I think these next two weeks we should be on the lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Oh I've been waiting for this opportunity. Keep cheering them on...I've got my fractional english reader on which translates what JB gives you and what ends up here. Ready to go?Sure. Since he and I speak everyday I'm happy to see you pay him his monthly fee since he is one of the nicer people I've been able to surround myself with. You're ready to declare a day 4 threat dead because the GFS and JMA disagree with the Euro ensembles . That's not quality regardless if it s from JB DT or PB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 +1 People like that are the reason I don't post more often during down times like this. Just way too much incessant crap. If "some people" would look at what the EURO and its ensembles are showing its been the most consistent and should i mention the model with the highest verification score? The EURO and its ensembles are the way to go with this system bar none. Have the ones that have crystal balls forgotten how we've accumulated our seasonal snowfall totals? Oh thats right! They trended N&W and wetter to some degree, guess thats out the window now huh jetspen? It may or may not happen with this storm too but this thread is in DIRE NEED of a cleansing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Considering upton is now going with 60% pops Tuesday night and Wednesday clearly they dont believe the euro is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 If "some people" would look at what the EURO and its ensembles are showing its been the most consistent and should i mention the model with the highest verification score? The EURO and its ensembles are the way to go with this system bar none. Have the ones that have crystal balls forgotten how we've accumulated our seasonal snowfall totals? Oh thats right! They trended N&W and wetter to some degree, guess thats out the window now huh jetspen? It may or may not happen with this storm too but this thread is in DIRE NEED of a cleansing I think we should take this to banter. While there's no arguing the Euro has the best verification scores, it's not like the other models are putrid (except maybe the nam...When it has major differences at hr 6 it really bothers me to point that I usually don't look at it much). Anyway all I'm saying is it's fine to put more stock in the Euro but it's not fine to outright dismiss the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Considering upton is now going with 60% pops Tuesday night and Wednesday clearly they dont believe the euro is out to lunch Shocker....GFS and JMA are misses and some other scattered models as well and the FAIL button is pressed ( paging Earthlight, Dsnow, JM1220 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think we should take this to banter. While there's no arguing the Euro has the best verification scores, it's not like the other models are putrid (except maybe the nam...When it has major differences at hr 6 it really bothers me to point that I usually don't look at it much). Anyway all I'm saying is it's fine to put more stock in the Euro but it's not fine to outright dismiss the other models. Absolutely agree but reading through some of this terrible form of banter all trust in EURO is lost in this storm and rest of the models are put onto a higher form of credibility. Not going any further this is banter and i shouldnt even be entertaining some of these responses in this thread, and no im not directing this at you in any way rjay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Sure. Since he and I speak everyday I'm happy to see you pay him his monthly fee since he is one of the nicer people I've been able to surround myself with. You're ready to declare a day 4 thread dead because the GFS and JMA disagree with the Euro ensembles . That's not quality regardless if it s from JB DT or PB. I gladly pay for his thoughts. He's one of my few heroes. I am also honored that you take a moment to consider what I think. I just do not see the the type of setup for the Euro solution.The PV is looking like it wants to become a semi-immovable feature in SE Canada. Flow underneath is super fast. No ridge axis. That is all I am saying. The best part is I am wrong more than I am right and everyone wins if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 OPC 96hrs http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif I love the OPC ...but this map looks a bit suspect ATM dual 1021mb areas of high pressure???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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