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2/26/2014 Potential Snowstorm


NEG NAO

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I'm beginning to think the Euro is out to lunch on this one, seeing no support from the GEM or GFS just is odd, if it was just the GFS I could buy it, also the NAM is very suppressed at the end of its run.

I would tend to agree IF the GFS never had it.  But it did --- and has lost it --- and its ens seem to think it may be wrong.  The GGEM doest that a lot to.  Sees it right --- loses it --- finds it again.  Seeing the Euro and its ens fairly steady def has be still very interested. 

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Just think back to jan and realize you are in the same pattern. Model placement and speed of individual SW will change run to run

Until an OP gets a handle on the exact press of the PV

That's why you are better to look to the higher skill score euro ensembles . If you don't lose the ensembles then the OP s

Will correct.

Patience.

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Huh. He said mod snow. .4 to .5 nyc. .6 Monmouth County to Suffolk. This is an arctic wave and will favor the coast.

It's been written about here i think the analysis was good.

 

With 12:15-1 possible, the .5 could yield roughly 6-7.5" of powdery snow should the -10C 850 and precip totals verify.

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This storm still has potential and if poeple werent such lovers of snow to the deteriment of science we wouldnt be having these unecessary B*** slap fights. sit bk and enjoy an amazing winter. Even if we dont see another flake we have been very fortunate. Moreover, vast mojority of us know 

1.) highly favorable pattern & will likely produce at least small shots.

2.) If this winter has shown anything: storms have been largely 'sneakers' who come on strong within 48 hours of game time.

in short : CHILL & Smile !

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Upper air was a step in the wrong direction, for sure this run. Could be the start of the unravelling 

I see a couple of worries-none of the other guidance came towards the Euro-would expect to see that now or by tomorrow at the latest.   Also the orientation of the QPF field is more east to west this run, which might indicate the PV is trying to Squash this out to sea, liked the prior SW to NE orientation.....on the positive side, the Euro's had this for several runs so it's locked in for sure...model standoff!

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