REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 4 days out is big on the models.I wouldn't say anything is out to lunch until at least Monday.m Well 96 hours isnt too far out. This threat is FAR from dead IMO, tommorow will determine whether the ship starts to sail by 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'm beginning to think the Euro is out to lunch on this one, seeing no support from the GEM or GFS just is odd, if it was just the GFS I could buy it, also the NAM is very suppressed at the end of its run. I would tend to agree IF the GFS never had it. But it did --- and has lost it --- and its ens seem to think it may be wrong. The GGEM doest that a lot to. Sees it right --- loses it --- finds it again. Seeing the Euro and its ens fairly steady def has be still very interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Just think back to jan and realize you are in the same pattern. Model placement and speed of individual SW will change run to run Until an OP gets a handle on the exact press of the PV That's why you are better to look to the higher skill score euro ensembles . If you don't lose the ensembles then the OP s Will correct. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Hr 96 steady snow in area. 1004 over obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Hr 102 mod snow. Wetter. 998 outside bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Dr Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow euro looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow euro looks nice Total QPf over .5 ? on the King? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Terrible analysis as usual from Allsnow....except for his BY 0z Euro run total QPF 12z Euro run total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Terrible analysis as usual from Allsnow....except for his BY 0z Euro run total QPF ecmwf_tprecip_nyc_23.png 12z Euro run total QPF ecmwf_tprecip_nyc_21.png Huh. He said mod snow. .4 to .5 nyc. .6 Monmouth County to Suffolk. This is an arctic wave and will favor the coast. It's been written about here i think the analysis was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Huh. He said mod snow. .4 to .5 nyc. .6 Monmouth County to Suffolk. This is an arctic wave and will favor the coast. It's been written about here i think the analysis was good. With 12:15-1 possible, the .5 could yield roughly 6-7.5" of powdery snow should the -10C 850 and precip totals verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Huh. He said mod snow. .4 to .5 nyc. .6 Monmouth County to Suffolk. This is an arctic wave and will favor the coast. It's been written about here i think the analysis was good. Splitting hairs here. Also it might be a 15:1 ratio storm as well so 5-6"+ is likely along coastal locals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Huh. He said mod snow. .4 to .5 nyc. .6 Monmouth County to Suffolk. This is an arctic wave and will favor the coast. It's been written about here i think the analysis was good. I think this will be similar to 1/21, NW screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 With 12:15-1 possible, the .5 could yield roughly 6-7.5" of powdery snow should the -10C 850 and precip totals verify. Do u happen to hav 700 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro is locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Hr 102 mod snow. Wetter. 998 outside bm Looks a tad drier in more places. Still plenty of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Then please stop Is wetter for the entire area if you look at the big picture Look at the first order stations on the Euro map with the precip printouts and tell me it's wetter for the "entire area". Can you honestly do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Do u happen to hav 700 mb temps. I don't have them yet, but it's trying to split the vortex next weekend with more emphysis on the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You can take a little off that euro precip map since it includes sun night..Maybe .10", nothing to drastic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 You can take a little off that euro precip map since it includes sun night..Maybe .10", nothing to drastic.. For nyc its .08 Sunday night and .36 for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 People need to calm the hell down...Jesus. on topic-glad to see the Euro has something, albeit a bit drier and hopefully not the start of a cave towards drier guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Looks a tad drier in more places. Still plenty of qpf. This forum is for NYC metro and I see nothing on that map to say it is drier for more places in NYC metro. It is wetter for NYC and south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 He's mad because the euro went drier for northern burbs but allsnow said wetter and didn't specify for whom. Welcome to the NY metro forum Looks a little wetter SW and a little drier all other directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 For nyc its .08 Sunday night and .36 for Wednesday and at 15-1 , currently, that translates to 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 This forum is for NYC metro and I see nothing on that map to say it is drier for more places in NYC metro. It is wetter for NYC and south of there. I don't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 This storm still has potential and if poeple werent such lovers of snow to the deteriment of science we wouldnt be having these unecessary B*** slap fights. sit bk and enjoy an amazing winter. Even if we dont see another flake we have been very fortunate. Moreover, vast mojority of us know 1.) highly favorable pattern & will likely produce at least small shots. 2.) If this winter has shown anything: storms have been largely 'sneakers' who come on strong within 48 hours of game time. in short : CHILL & Smile ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 and at 15-1 , currently, that translates to 3-5 If you have .36 of precip and a 15-1 ratio, you're gonna get at least 5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 People need to calm the hell down...Jesus. on topic-glad to see the Euro has something, albeit a bit drier and hopefully not the start of a cave towards drier guidance Upper air was a step in the wrong direction, for sure this run. Could be the start of the unravelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Upper air was a step in the wrong direction, for sure this run. Could be the start of the unravelling Or it could be that the other models dont have a friggin clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Upper air was a step in the wrong direction, for sure this run. Could be the start of the unravelling I see a couple of worries-none of the other guidance came towards the Euro-would expect to see that now or by tomorrow at the latest. Also the orientation of the QPF field is more east to west this run, which might indicate the PV is trying to Squash this out to sea, liked the prior SW to NE orientation.....on the positive side, the Euro's had this for several runs so it's locked in for sure...model standoff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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