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2/26/2014 Potential Snowstorm


NEG NAO

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I think the 06Z and the 18Z GFS runs are used for experimentation w/o public notification. Since there is limited super computer avaliablity, the changes to the physics package and pre-post processing must be carried out on the regular systems I think. Anyway, the models are behaving like 'cartoons', a clear sign the physics package has been turned off altogether. lol.

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So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job.

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So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job.

The March 7 event has some run-to-run continuity from 18z. ;)

 

Bitter and dry would be a crummy way to end this special winter.

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So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job.

I wouldn't trust the gfs beyond day 7/8 regarding a pattern change anyway

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So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job.

Yeah of course, that cold and dry BS worked out in Late January and Early Feb when unwarranted weenie suicides were at an all time high :facepalm:

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Yeah of course, that cold and dry BS worked out in Late January and Early Feb when unwarranted weenie suicides were at an all time high :facepalm:

I didn't say I believed it. I made it clear in my post that it just could be GFS doing a lousy job. I was just pointing out what the model showed tonight. I suspect Euro will still have snow for us Wednesday.

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I wouldn't trust the gfs beyond day 7/8 regarding a pattern change anyway

if history from this past winter repeats itself this will be one of those storms that the GFS starts moving west within 48 hours of the event since the EURO and its ensembles have been consistent with the more west track - when the EURO locks in within 96 hours and has been showing this event for days have to trust it. GFS was showing an event for days but has since lost the event which is normal for the GFS

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12z Ggem has nada also

It's possible we have to wait until the PV starts to retreat to get something as we won't always score with these arctic wave type storms like earlier this winter, but there's still a lot of time for things to change. 

 

I'm not convinced that this is a done deal as we've seen countless times all the models show something, then lose it, and only to bring it back again. 

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