IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 For the event on Tuesday the 18z GFS isn't nearly as robust as 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 And the second system is going to develop further offshore. Nothing like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS giveth and the GFS taketh. no worries it will be back 0z, I don't know what it is with the 18z runs that differ a good bit from the other runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 GFS giveth and the GFS taketh. no worries it will be back 0z, I don't know what it is with the 18z runs that differ a good bit from the other runs almost always the case : 18 Z extreme solutions either very wet or very dry. no middle ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think the 06Z and the 18Z GFS runs are used for experimentation w/o public notification. Since there is limited super computer avaliablity, the changes to the physics package and pre-post processing must be carried out on the regular systems I think. Anyway, the models are behaving like 'cartoons', a clear sign the physics package has been turned off altogether. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z DGEX is the most amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 What else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS is not handling this system well yet looks like the EURO will lead the way on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job. The March 7 event has some run-to-run continuity from 18z. Bitter and dry would be a crummy way to end this special winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job. I wouldn't trust the gfs beyond day 7/8 regarding a pattern change anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 So much for the idea that it was just an off 18z run. 0z GFS still doesn't give us the storm Wednesday. Hopefully it's just the GFS being its usual lousy self and Euro won't back off tonight. GFS also starts warming us up next sunday. If GFS is right we won't get any real snow from this great pattern everyone is talking about. But again hopefully it's just GFS doing its usual lousy job. Yeah of course, that cold and dry BS worked out in Late January and Early Feb when unwarranted weenie suicides were at an all time high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 H5 looked good despite what the surface showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yeah of course, that cold and dry BS worked out in Late January and Early Feb when unwarranted weenie suicides were at an all time high I didn't say I believed it. I made it clear in my post that it just could be GFS doing a lousy job. I was just pointing out what the model showed tonight. I suspect Euro will still have snow for us Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 To be fair, we are already at historic snowfall totals so no one should complain if we were to get no more snow. I think we will get more snow but people hopefully need to to realize this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 0z Euro is still a hit with this storm. In fact, the slp is further west than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro looked good. Especially NYC and South/East. .4+ and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro ens like this event. 996 just outside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 I wouldn't trust the gfs beyond day 7/8 regarding a pattern change anyway if history from this past winter repeats itself this will be one of those storms that the GFS starts moving west within 48 hours of the event since the EURO and its ensembles have been consistent with the more west track - when the EURO locks in within 96 hours and has been showing this event for days have to trust it. GFS was showing an event for days but has since lost the event which is normal for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z gfs keeps the storm south and east of area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z gfs keeps the storm south and east of area. Good then you know it should be noteworthy. It misses every obx to the BM storm at ths range. Ride the euro eensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Good then you know it should be noteworthy. It misses every obx to the BM storm at ths range. Ride the euro eensembles YUP! Think this storm is going to set the table for a pretty cold and snowy pattern the next couple weeks paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_us.html Perilously Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z Ggem has nada also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Fully expect the EURO to show a nice hit on the OP and ENS mean in a bit. Its been the most consistent thus far with this event and what the pattern argues for IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'm beginning to think the Euro is out to lunch on this one, seeing no support from the GEM or GFS just is odd, if it was just the GFS I could buy it, also the NAM is very suppressed at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z Ggem has nada also It's possible we have to wait until the PV starts to retreat to get something as we won't always score with these arctic wave type storms like earlier this winter, but there's still a lot of time for things to change. I'm not convinced that this is a done deal as we've seen countless times all the models show something, then lose it, and only to bring it back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 4 days out is big on the models.I wouldn't say anything is out to lunch until at least Monday.m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The 12Z GFS ensembles at 96 hours show most members are NW of the Op or at least are trying to get something better going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.