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2/26/2014 Potential Snowstorm


NEG NAO

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Did you guys see what the 12z UKMET did with this storm?  It is hard to tell exactly what is going on with the 24 hour time steps, but my goodness.  It takes a 1003 mb low over Northwestern SC at 120 hrs and turns it into a 964 mb low over Nova Scotia at 144 hrs.  OK then.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=120

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144

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Did you guys see what the 12z UKMET did with this storm? It is hard to tell exactly what is going on with the 24 hour time steps, but my goodness. It takes a 1003 mb low over Northwestern SC at 120 hrs and turns it into a 964 mb low over Nova Scotia at 144 hrs. OK then.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=120

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144

Insane Bombogenesis! Almost 2mb drop an hour
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850`s at 126  are Minus 10- at 132 850`s are Minus 14 , The surface is 25 at 126 - falling into the TEENS . This will go 15 to 1 , There looks to be .3 -at KNYC  to as much as .4 on the Monmouth county coast onto Suffolk County .

 

We`ve seen all year Northern branch arctic waves like to favor eastern areas , but this is only a tick away from being an area wide warning event IMO . Any further west retrogression of the PV and this is to the BM not outside it . 

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850`s at 126  are Minus 10- at 132 850`s are Minus 14 , The surface is 25 at 126 - falling into the TEENS . This will go 15 to 1 , There looks to be .3 -at KNYC  to as much as .4 on the Monmouth county coast onto Suffolk County .

 

We`ve seen all year Northern branch arctic waves like to favor eastern areas , but this is only a tick away from being an area wide warning event IMO . Any further west retrogression of the PV and this is to the BM not outside it . 

you need to look at 700MB temps and temps is the greatest snow growth region...850 and surface play a very small role. Im pretty certain this has been discussed and pointed out ad nauseum....but no one listens and by reading the above the author appears to be speaking in definitives.

 

Ideal for 15:1 or greater ratios, with dentrites, is -11 to -21 or so in the snow growth/source region, usually around 700MB...

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you need to look at 700MB temps and temps is the greatest snow growth region...850 and surface play a very small role. Im pretty certain this has been discussed and pointed out ad nauseum....but no one listens and by reading the above the author appears to be speaking in definitives.

 

Ideal for 15:1 or greater ratios, with dentrites, is -11 to -21 or so in the snow growth/source region, usually around 700MB...

700 MB always gona do the best -12 - 18    there you can be 20 to 1 - like back in early Feb .

20 to 1 are Very hard to pull off  . But when  850`s are   - 12 to - 14 , at  700  it should not be baking .

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700 MB always gona do the best -12 - 18    there you can be 20 to 1 - like back in early Feb .

20 to 1 are Very hard to pull off  . But when  850`s are   - 12 to - 14 , at  700  it should not be baking .

yes, that is true, but there is a chance the temps at 700 could be -8 or -6....not ideal for snow ratios....if 700 was at -16 and 850 was -2 you would likely get better ratios in that scenario that the first one I mentioned....

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yes, that is true, but there is a chance the temps at 700 could be -8 or -6....not ideal for snow ratios....if 700 was at -16 and 850 was -2 you would likely get better ratios in that scenario that the first one I mentioned....

True -  The way I figure 15 to 1 is at 126 we are at minus 10- 132  we are at minus 14  at 138 we are at minus 18 .

So I`m assuming at 700  I'm  prob not too far away from Minus 10 - So I conclude 15 to 1 . The air mass aloft is so cold and  its deepening during  the fact ,  so my assumption`s not based off seeing a map .

A well defined low level cold air mass charging SE  700 mb temps should be on the colder side . I will stick with 15 to 1 , but never do I speak in definitive terms .Just MO .

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True -  The way I figure 15 to 1 is at 126 we are at minus 10- 132  we are at minus 14  at 138 we are at minus 18 .

So I`m assuming at 700  I'm  prob not too far away from Minus 10 - So I conclude 15 to 1 . The air mass aloft is so cold and  its deepening during  the fact ,  so my assumption`s not based off seeing a map .

A well defined low level cold air mass charging SE  700 mb temps should be on the colder side . I will stick with 15 to 1 , but never do I speak in definitive terms .Just MO .

Always one of the more complex things to figure out and it greatly affects final accum so its very helpful your explanation of the logic and rationale behind the calaculation. thx

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I have a good feeling about this one. It just wants to snow here this winter. I fully expect future runs to trend NW. With nice fresh artic air in place and especially aloft we should be solid ratios for this time of year.

Also the fact that we are closer to spring there should be more moisture available then during the January events.

Chasing 95-96!!!

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I think wed will end up being a warning event .

I like the VV being modeled there looks to be a good ridge axis out west while this is developing into a very cold storm

NB features this year with a neg EPO regime have done pretty well as we got closer.

So I like this one .

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