MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This threat has more legs, there's a lot of energy and we have to see if it can really consolidate and produce a major storm. Imagine another big storm during the week. What happened to the weekend rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We need 4.8" to break 2010-11 in Central Park to put this in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The cold behind the storm is incredibly impressive. Lows of 0-5 thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Did you guys see what the 12z UKMET did with this storm? It is hard to tell exactly what is going on with the 24 hour time steps, but my goodness. It takes a 1003 mb low over Northwestern SC at 120 hrs and turns it into a 964 mb low over Nova Scotia at 144 hrs. OK then. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Did you guys see what the 12z UKMET did with this storm? It is hard to tell exactly what is going on with the 24 hour time steps, but my goodness. It takes a 1003 mb low over Northwestern SC at 120 hrs and turns it into a 964 mb low over Nova Scotia at 144 hrs. OK then. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144 Insane Bombogenesis! Almost 2mb drop an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Insane Bombogenesis! Almost 2mb drop an hour Dpending n track we could be in for a mamoth surprise. will be highly interesting to see what Euro says shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro looking fantastic! Hour 120 snow with a sub 1000mb low over OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Light snow at 12z wed…low over OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 A little too far offshore but we can work on it in the upcoming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 mod snow hr 126…993 200 miles east of nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 2-4" or 4-6" event depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Allsnow its still too far east but improved. Still think we get this one good going with our seasonal trends with these systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 looks like 3-6 on the euro…986 outside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Allsnow its still too far east but improved. Still think we get this one good going with our seasonal trends with these systems The lift and arctic front will squeeze what ever moisture out….we don't need it that close for a warning event…..1-3-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Dont forget the R word.. "ratios" lol,and both the 1/3 and 1/21 storms did not have strong MSLPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The lift and arctic front will squeeze what ever moisture out….we don't need it that close for a warning event…..1-3-14 It will help if it does come closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 850`s at 126 are Minus 10- at 132 850`s are Minus 14 , The surface is 25 at 126 - falling into the TEENS . This will go 15 to 1 , There looks to be .3 -at KNYC to as much as .4 on the Monmouth county coast onto Suffolk County . We`ve seen all year Northern branch arctic waves like to favor eastern areas , but this is only a tick away from being an area wide warning event IMO . Any further west retrogression of the PV and this is to the BM not outside it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ens like this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ens like this event Thanks for the update, this looks like one of those low end wide spread warning events in the tri-state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbowler83 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 How is 12z GEFS looking for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro ens like this event The control did a great job last week keeping the surface on the NJ coast . Next frame is E of the BM but its deeper than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 How is 12z GEFS looking for the area? The mean is not impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 850`s at 126 are Minus 10- at 132 850`s are Minus 14 , The surface is 25 at 126 - falling into the TEENS . This will go 15 to 1 , There looks to be .3 -at KNYC to as much as .4 on the Monmouth county coast onto Suffolk County . We`ve seen all year Northern branch arctic waves like to favor eastern areas , but this is only a tick away from being an area wide warning event IMO . Any further west retrogression of the PV and this is to the BM not outside it . you need to look at 700MB temps and temps is the greatest snow growth region...850 and surface play a very small role. Im pretty certain this has been discussed and pointed out ad nauseum....but no one listens and by reading the above the author appears to be speaking in definitives. Ideal for 15:1 or greater ratios, with dentrites, is -11 to -21 or so in the snow growth/source region, usually around 700MB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 you need to look at 700MB temps and temps is the greatest snow growth region...850 and surface play a very small role. Im pretty certain this has been discussed and pointed out ad nauseum....but no one listens and by reading the above the author appears to be speaking in definitives. Ideal for 15:1 or greater ratios, with dentrites, is -11 to -21 or so in the snow growth/source region, usually around 700MB... 700 MB always gona do the best -12 - 18 there you can be 20 to 1 - like back in early Feb . 20 to 1 are Very hard to pull off . But when 850`s are - 12 to - 14 , at 700 it should not be baking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 700 MB always gona do the best -12 - 18 there you can be 20 to 1 - like back in early Feb . 20 to 1 are Very hard to pull off . But when 850`s are - 12 to - 14 , at 700 it should not be baking . yes, that is true, but there is a chance the temps at 700 could be -8 or -6....not ideal for snow ratios....if 700 was at -16 and 850 was -2 you would likely get better ratios in that scenario that the first one I mentioned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 yes, that is true, but there is a chance the temps at 700 could be -8 or -6....not ideal for snow ratios....if 700 was at -16 and 850 was -2 you would likely get better ratios in that scenario that the first one I mentioned.... True - The way I figure 15 to 1 is at 126 we are at minus 10- 132 we are at minus 14 at 138 we are at minus 18 . So I`m assuming at 700 I'm prob not too far away from Minus 10 - So I conclude 15 to 1 . The air mass aloft is so cold and its deepening during the fact , so my assumption`s not based off seeing a map . A well defined low level cold air mass charging SE 700 mb temps should be on the colder side . I will stick with 15 to 1 , but never do I speak in definitive terms .Just MO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 True - The way I figure 15 to 1 is at 126 we are at minus 10- 132 we are at minus 14 at 138 we are at minus 18 . So I`m assuming at 700 I'm prob not too far away from Minus 10 - So I conclude 15 to 1 . The air mass aloft is so cold and its deepening during the fact , so my assumption`s not based off seeing a map . A well defined low level cold air mass charging SE 700 mb temps should be on the colder side . I will stick with 15 to 1 , but never do I speak in definitive terms .Just MO . Always one of the more complex things to figure out and it greatly affects final accum so its very helpful your explanation of the logic and rationale behind the calaculation. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I have a good feeling about this one. It just wants to snow here this winter. I fully expect future runs to trend NW. With nice fresh artic air in place and especially aloft we should be solid ratios for this time of year. Also the fact that we are closer to spring there should be more moisture available then during the January events. Chasing 95-96!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think wed will end up being a warning event . I like the VV being modeled there looks to be a good ridge axis out west while this is developing into a very cold storm NB features this year with a neg EPO regime have done pretty well as we got closer. So I like this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It could be a good event, there's a lot of moisture getting picked up and some models really explode this thing. This could be similar to our early January event and we could still get good snows with the low further east. We could also see higher ratios, which is hard to believe in late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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