Rjay Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro cuts back on precip again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Gfs has .25 for Phl This post goes under the category "model hallucination". PHL had 0.12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif "A man's got to know his limitations " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 09z SREF's are < 0.10" area wide. South NJ is 0.10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z NAM is bone dry. Put a fork in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Upton SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND "WILL "CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW SO FAR SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND....BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A 1-3" SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERNPORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LESS THAN THAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR."""" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 4k NAM has a few scattered flurries over land and an hour or two of 5-10dbz echoes for an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z NAM is bone dry. Put a fork in this one. Slightly premature I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z NAM is bone dry. Put a fork in this one. Not until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Not until tomorrow. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 SMH We have seen storms ramp up at the last second this winter. That's why I am not giving up until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Slightly premature I would say. It's only pre-mature if you're wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't know—it seems like the last two or three systems have underperformed in general. There are surprises every winter, but at 48 hours out with no support from guidance, it's hard to bank on seasonal trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't know—it seems like the last two or three systems have underperformed in general. There are surprises every winter, but at 48 hours out with no support from guidance, it's hard to bank on seasonal trends... The storm is too progressive, there's a kicker behind it, and the NAO is uncooperative, with nothing to force a left turn. To me it seems pretty straightforward that this is a flat, OTS system. The seasonal trend may be one thing, but if there is no mechanism to cause a stronger system, it just won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't know—it seems like the last two or three systems have underperformed in general. There are surprises every winter, but at 48 hours out with no support from guidance, it's hard to bank on seasonal trends... A few storms trend more favorably at the eleventh hour and some people think it's going to happen with every storm. The GFS really only had one really big run and the Euro held onto this threat a little longer. The GGEM wanted basically no part of it from the very beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 1"-2".. locally 3". Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 1"-2".. locally 3". Next! Maybe not even that. This looks like it could just be clouds and some flurries for most. At this point if there were going to be any meaningful changes, we likely would have seen them by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yeah this threat is dead. Trends are continuing in the wrong direction. A few storms have trended better late this year, but that is simply no reason to forecast this one will as well. It isn't even trending in the right direction, so to think a sudden turnaround is happening 1.5 days out is just unrealistic. Even the storms that came northwest late were already doing so, and weren't trending away from a big solution. The euro held onto this for so long because it doesn't make really big leaps. It had been trending worse for several runs now, albeit gradually, but still getting worse. It does kind of seem in a way that we are always 7 days away from a big storm. Hopefully that doesn't continue. We've already punted a week that looked pretty favorable, we can't really afford to be 7 days away from a threat for much longer in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The storm is too progressive, there's a kicker behind it, and the NAO is uncooperative, with nothing to force a left turn. To me it seems pretty straightforward that this is a flat, OTS system. The seasonal trend may be one thing, but if there is no mechanism to cause a stronger system, it just won't happen. Too add, the shortwave energy is strung out. And a prior shortwave, is also suppressing the heights near the coast. But I would wait for other guidance to come in, before believing complete dry solution like the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I would lock in 1" and never look back, heh. If you want accumulation, you'd probably want to be on Nantucket, and even that could be a stretch. Perhaps we can steal some flurries from the northern stream disturbance on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yeah this threat is dead. Trends are continuing in the wrong direction. A few storms have trended better late this year, but that is simply no reason to forecast this one will as well. It isn't even trending in the right direction, so to think a sudden turnaround is happening 1.5 days out is just unrealistic. Even the storms that came northwest late were already doing so, and weren't trending away from a big solution. The euro held onto this for so long because it doesn't make really big leaps. It had been trending worse for several runs now, albeit gradually, but still getting worse. It does kind of seem in a way that we are always 7 days away from a big storm. Hopefully that doesn't continue. We've already punted a week that looked pretty favorable, we can't really afford to be 7 days away from a threat for much longer in the season. If you spend enough time watching the models over the years you'll see that this phenomena of always being seven days away is really nothing new. The modeling post day 7 will often handle certain features very differently from one day to the next and so much of that is a domino effect as the short range is better sampled and adjustments are made and so on and so forth. This is especially true of the GFS post truncation. The lower resolution leads to a more smoothed out depiction of the features and the result can be some rather wild synoptic depictions. We've seen this year especially a few storms on the GFS which appeared to be blockbuster type events weaken as time grew closer. In reality I believe that is just a result of the higher resolution leading to less smoothed out QPF fields as events move up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 If you spend enough time watching the models over the years you'll see that this phenomena of always being seven days away is really nothing new. The modeling post day 7 will often handle certain features very differently from one day to the next and so much of that is a domino effect as the short range is better sampled and adjustments are made and so on and so forth. This is especially true of the GFS post truncation. The lower resolution leads to a more smoothed out depiction of the features and the result can be some rather wild synoptic depictions. We've seen this year especially a few storms on the GFS which appeared to be blockbuster type events weaken as time grew closer. In reality I believe that is just a result of the higher resolution leading to less smoothed out QPF fields as events move up in time. Yeah your definitely right about that. The gfs has had some historic looking solutions at points only to come back down to reality with a much weaker system. This is my first year on the forums and really following the weather closely and being involved with the models. It does seem model performance has been sub par this winter season. Maybe 2-3 weeks ago we had a storm threat at about 6-7 days on all models with significant ensemble support on the gfs and euro and it just kind of vanished slowly over a few runs. We will see what happens, but it would be a comical reversal if the time where we start worrying about rain snow lines produced supression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yeah your definitely right about that. The gfs has had some historic looking solutions at points only to come back down to reality with a much weaker system. This is my first year on the forums and really following the weather closely and being involved with the models. It does seem model performance has been sub par this winter season. Maybe 2-3 weeks ago we had a storm threat at about 6-7 days on all models with significant ensemble support on the gfs and euro and it just kind of vanished slowly over a few runs. We will see what happens, but it would be a comical reversal if the time where we start worrying about rain snow lines produced supression Welcome to the world of weather weenies! We're a rather unique group of people. The progressive flow has really taken its toll on the modeling this year. It's what has prevented a few of these systems from really wrapping up and becoming blockbuster type events. Then again without such an active jet we wouldn't of had as many storm threats to follow, so it's a bit of a catch 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yeah your definitely right about that. The gfs has had some historic looking solutions at points only to come back down to reality with a much weaker system. This is my first year on the forums and really following the weather closely and being involved with the models. It does seem model performance has been sub par this winter season. Maybe 2-3 weeks ago we had a storm threat at about 6-7 days on all models with significant ensemble support on the gfs and euro and it just kind of vanished slowly over a few runs. We will see what happens, but it would be a comical reversal if the time where we start worrying about rain snow lines produced supression Yeah, we've a couple cases like that so far. 06z GFS on Feb 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Welcome to the world of weather weenies! We're a rather unique group of people. The progressive flow has really taken its toll on the modeling this year. It's what has prevented a few of these systems from really wrapping up and becoming blockbuster type events. Then again without such an active jet we wouldn't of had as many storm threats to follow, so it's a bit of a catch 22. The progressive nature this year no doubt has played havoc on the models in long, medium and even short range. One of the worst winters to be a forecaster IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Patterns are progressive 90% of the time so that's no excuse. We don't often get good blocking patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 12z GFS is 0.05-0.10" for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 9z SREFs had the highest 700 RHs to the south, but with a significant NW spread, (still south of NYC). Will have to see if there is any movement at 15Z in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro has some light snow for wed morning. Less then .10. Temps in 20's .10 touches snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro has some light snow for wed morning. Less then .10. Temps in 20's .10 touches snj Translation : an inch . Bring on the weekend threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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