bluewave Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The current forecasts are indicating that areas just to the south of us could see the strongest wind gusts with any low-topped convection that forms on Friday. But we are right along the northern edge of the region that could see higher wind gusts should the line hold together as it moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The current forecasts are indicating that areas just to the south of us could see the strongest wind gusts with any low-topped convection that forms on Friday. But we are right along the northern edge of the region that could see higher wind gusts should the line hold together as it moves through. day2otlk_0700.gif day2probotlk_0700_any.gif SREF_prob_cptp_1__f033.gif Whats sad chris is that where i am this is probably my best chance to experience a windy squall line. the steep mid level lapse rates we've had during this winter's winter storms have been more impressive than a summer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Whats sad chris is that where i am this is probably my best chance to experience a windy squall line. the steep mid level lapse rates we've had during this winter's winter storms have been more impressive than a summer time. Long Island is like Florida....it's where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM has a narrow band of 30-40MPH surface winds crossing the region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Long Island is like Florida....it's where storms go to die. right on! Its amazing once storms get to NYC/CT coast there is some sort of storm shield that weakens 99% of the storms. Best chances i have to see them are early morning and night time other than that severe threats are null and void where i am. That said, this does look like some fun if it does hit us with some nice gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 right on! Its amazing once storms get to NYC/CT coast there is some sort of storm shield that weakens 99% of the storms. Best chances i have to see them are early morning and night time other than that severe threats are null and void where i am. That said, this does look like some fun if it does hit us with some nice gusts Marine influence. Cooler air stabilizes the atmosphere and weakens storms once they get near the coast. This is really only a problem until mid-late June. After that, storms don't weaken much at all with warmer SSTs in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Long Island is like Florida....it's where storms go to die. I think Sandy fulfilled our quota for crazy weather for about another century or two. Living through that more than makes up for all of the squall lines I missed out on growing up. We've also had some crazy runs with coastal storms, wind-wise especially the March 13, 2010 storm that had wind gusts of 70-80 mph and enormous tree and power line damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I think Sandy fulfilled our quota for crazy weather for about another century or two. Living through that more than makes up for all of the squall lines I missed out on growing up. We've also had some crazy runs with coastal storms, wind-wise especially the March 13, 2010 storm that had wind gusts of 70-80 mph and enormous tree and power line damage. March 13, 2010 was some of the wickedest winds I've ever seen here. Tress were falling everywhere. Not to mention we had over 4" of rain. Only Sandy was more severe up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I think Sandy fulfilled our quota for crazy weather for about another century or two. Living through that more than makes up for all of the squall lines I missed out on growing up. We've also had some crazy runs with coastal storms, wind-wise especially the March 13, 2010 storm that had wind gusts of 70-80 mph and enormous tree and power line damage. Both Sandy and March 13, 2010 had amazing winds here on the coast. The two best wind storms I've ever experienced. ISP gusted to 90mph in Sandy and JFK hit 75mph on 3/13/10. Also Boxing day had some wicked winds here. 64mph gust at ISP and 70mph gust in Patchogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Whats sad chris is that where i am this is probably my best chance to experience a windy squall line. the steep mid level lapse rates we've had during this winter's winter storms have been more impressive than a summer time. Yeah, I commented on the great lapse rates few weeks back when we had thunder twice over about a week or so. The mid-level lapse rates will be very steep with a nice pocket of elevated instability above the inversion. Parts of New Jersey could also see some surface based instability with areas south having possible negative surface based LI's where the SPC has the greatest risk of severe. The SREFS's have done well when forecasting thunder potential on several occasions this winter. There looks like there should be a push of low 60's up into Central New Jersey while we get the cooler marine influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Both the NAM and GFS are showing steep mid-level lapse rates, high TTs. But MUCAPE 100-250 J/kg. I think will see at least forced low-topped squall squall with the strong 500mb jet passing over us tomorrow evening.. Maybe some thunder too with the instability. The low-level inversion and lack of surface-based instability, probably keep the damaging wind threat very isolated and more confined to TTN south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Flood Watch issued. High temps, high dew points, rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 the fog tonight should be impressive. widespread near 0 visibility IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Flood Watch issued. High temps, high dew points, rain. Without taking into account potential from ice jam flooding I do believe that we escape tomorrow without any serious flooding. Most of the rain tonight should miss us to the northwest and any heavy rain tomorrow looks brief. With that being said, WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV indicates that the headwaters of the Passaic river basin contain roughly 3.5"-4.5" of water equivalent. Should rapid melting occur and if we get a bit more rain than what's currently being indicated we could have some problems, and the flood watch is warranted. Great write up this afternoon from Mt. Holly. Of course this won't gather much attention in this sub forum because people in NYC only care about what happens in NYC. .HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion -- THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...RAIN...RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES...AND WIND...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SNOWMELT RATE ON FRIDAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL INCREASE RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. NWS HYDROLOGIC MODELS SUGGEST THIS RUNOFF MAY CAUSE NUMEROUS STREAMS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GENERALLY LOCATED IN AREAS WITH THE MOST SNOW ON THE GROUND...NAMELY SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELAWARE. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER, IT WAS DECIDED A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE PRUDENT BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS. IN ADDITION, INCREASED STREAMFLOW COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREAK UP AND MOVE RIVER ICE...WHICH IN TURN POSES THE ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. AND IF THIS WASN`T ENOUGH...CLOGGED DRAINS AND CULVERTS POSE THE THREAT FOR STREET AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN. BASIN-WIDE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE WITH BASINWIDE AVERAGES ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SUCH A SMALL QPF WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE TOO MUCH CONCERN FOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...WARM, MOIST AIR BLOWING OVER A RIPE SNOWPACK ON GUSTY WINDS CAN QUICKLY EAT AWAY AT A SNOWPACK WITH SIGNIFICANT RESULTANT RUNOFF. WE ARE NOT, HOWEVER, EXPECTING A REPEAT OF JANUARY 1996 OR APRIL 2005. RIVERS AND STREAMS NEED TO BE MONITORED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE COMBINED THREAT OF RISING WATER AND MOVING ICE, BOTH OF WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING. IF THE DELAWARE RIVER DID NOT CONTAIN ICE...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THAT WATERWAY WOULD BE MINIMAL FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...THE DELAWARE RIVER DOES CONTAIN ICE, AND ONCE IT STARTS TO MOVE, FLOODING IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY. RESIDENTS NEED TO STAY ABREAST OF CHANGING CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. -- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 the fog tonight should be impressive. widespread near 0 visibility IMO I agree. Low-level inversion is strong: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Current timing for the low-topped squall to reach NYC is around 3-4 pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM shows the squall line falling apart as it crosses into NJ. Most areas should pick up less than 0.25" of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM shows the squall line falling apart as it crosses into NJ. Most areas should pick up less than 0.25" of rainfall. Sounds like summer time is coming early...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Sounds like summer time is coming early...... No, usually the storms at least make it through NJ before getting eaten alive by the smog over New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Sounds like summer time is coming early...... The elevated instability parameters look great for this time of year so we have a shot at the storms holding together well enough for a brief downpour and some stronger gusts with lightning even here on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The HRRR is pretty bullish on lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12z OKX sounding had 817 J/kg MUCAPE. MU LI -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The warm front is still hung up south of the area. If we get warm sectored it will be for a short period of time today.Rt 202 was a little foggy while coming up to Mahwah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The latest HRRR (12z) continues the trend up bumping up QPF today It also has quite the squall line moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 The 12z OKX sounding had 817 J/kg MUCAPE. MU LI -4 This has been an interesting winter for elevated instability parameters around here. Over a one week period a while back we had two lightning and one small hail event. The warm and moisture surge just below 850 mb is also impressive for this time of year at 13c. S 895 1044 13.2 12.5 96 0.7 12.8 243 43 295.6 297.4 290.3 325.1 10.23 S 892 1072 13.2 12.4 95 0.8 12.7 242 44 295.9 297.7 290.3 325.3 10.19 S 887 1119 13.0 9.8 81 3.2 11.1 241 45 296.1 297.7 289.0 321.1 8.60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This has been an interesting winter for elevated instability parameters around here. Over a one week period a while back we had two lightning and one small hail event. Both the NAM and HRRR increase MUCAPE right ahead of squall line for LI. Don't see why you guys can't get any thunder: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 No, usually the storms at least make it through NJ before getting eaten alive by the smog over New York City. I have to disagree here as I did research into this as an under grad. Storm initiation was most present over nepa and then a second cluster further south. However upon crossing the deleware River we noticed a sharp dropoff in intensity and svr reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I have to disagree here as I did research into this as an under grad. Storm initiation was most present over nepa and then a second cluster further south. However upon crossing the deleware River we noticed a sharp dropoff in intensity and svr reports. I was joking.... Anyway we all know that our real severe season begins in late May and peaks during August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like the latest HRRR backed off a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm guessing temps rise across the whole state once the squall line moves thru? Been in the mid 30's here all morning with fog. Places down south are in the mid 50's, quite a difference. Will this inhance t-storm activity later this afternoon. Also looks like the line will get here before 2/3pm by the looks of it on the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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