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Feb 20 th Snow Ice CAD event Obs discussion banter


Ginx snewx

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 A lot of CT up to the pike especially east of 495 will warm sector. It may only be for an hour or two in spots, but they will warm. Not to mention post fropa bounce.

 

I'm not talking about post c-fropa, delayed CAA warming... fine.

 

But prior to that, I disagree.   

 

deep snow pack

ageo- drain in play

primary way west attributed light ... only 16kt sw sustained atop mt Washington (22kt 850 rule of thumb for w-frontal displacement E of the elevation)

 

it's just not happening.  The higher resolution models have weak secondary low signature for a reason, and the reality is that even for these models they won't resolve the lowest 150mb of BL resistance and that will squeeze that low even more SE.  Will nailed it!  triple point and warm frontal suppression is the way to go.   

 

You don't move warm fronts into NE in this type of regime.  Good luck.

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I can see this debate happening now through June 1st ... 

 

BD and/or nascent saturated cool pooling; if/when there is any flag movement at all, forget it.  I've seen too many forecast' warm humid afternoons in May end up stuck in the late 40s and early 50s with flag wobbles from the NE.  There are certain things we look for to overcome actual air motion going SW -- namely, you can't have air actually still moving SW for one.  

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I'm not talking about post c-fropa, delayed CAA warming... fine.

 

But prior to that, I disagree.   

 

deep snow pack

ageo- drain in play

primary way west attributed light ... only 16kt sw sustained atop mt Washington (22kt 850 rule of thumb for w-frontal displacement E of the elevation)

 

it's just not happening.  The higher resolution models have weak secondary low signature for a reason, and the reality is that even for these models they won't resolve the lowest 150mb of BL resistance and that will squeeze that low even more SE.  Will nailed it!  triple point and warm frontal suppression is the way to go.   

 

You don't move warm fronts into NE in this type of regime.  Good luck.

 

LOL, WF will go where they want despite snowpack. That's a piss poor argument. So you are saying everyone will stay below 40? You aren't being clear. ORH..interior NE MA won't warm sector I agree..but I bet BOS does for an hour or two at least. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things. 

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I never understood the fears of rain on snow covered roofs vs an equal amount of liquid in snow form being added

snow sublimates, Kev is being a wad, multiple roof failures on the news yesterday, not a huge problem yet but there were a bunch. And yes Coventry I saw a bunch of houses yesterday with siggy pack. But again Tolland does not rep all of CT
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I never understood the fears of rain on snow covered roofs vs an equal amount of liquid in snow form being added

 

When dry and cold, snowpack tends to cling to itself, offering a bit of "structural" strength that offsets the weight, or at least spreads out the burden.  Rain lubricates things and destroys any of that structural/distributional support.  However, the biggest problem with rain on roof snow is that it makes that pack deceptively heavy.  Add an inch LE of snow and the roof pile gains an obvious height.  The same weight of rain probably makes the roof pack look less imposing, thus apparently (and falsely) less threatening.

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snow sublimates, Kev is being a wad, multiple roof failures on the news yesterday, not a huge problem yet but there were a bunch. And yes Coventry I saw a bunch of houses yesterday with siggy pack. But again Tolland does not rep all of CT

There's times when you aren't right Steve. it's ok to be wrong sometimes. This is nothing like a couple years ago when we  were a month earlier and low sun angle. The sun melted a ton of snow off many roof tops yesterday. Sure there's still snow on roofs. But there's not enough to cause any major problems. 3 more days of sig melting and many roof tops will be bare

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snow sublimates, Kev is being a wad, multiple roof failures on the news yesterday, not a huge problem yet but there were a bunch. And yes Coventry I saw a bunch of houses yesterday with siggy pack. But again Tolland does not rep all of CT

 

 

There's def been some roof issues the past few days...though thankfully they will be getting less over the next couple days as they shed some of the pack.

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There's times when you aren't right Steve. it's ok to be wrong sometimes. This is nothing like a couple years ago when we  were a month earlier and low sun angle. The sun melted a ton of snow off many roof tops yesterday. Sure there's still snow on roofs. But there's not enough to cause any major problems. 3 more days of sig melting and many roof tops will be bare

 

Someone just died in Weymouth yesterday from a roof collapse. Granted it was probably not up to code, but they added weight from rain doesn't help. The next few days will alleviate that.

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I'm down to 12" after peaking at 20".

Lost 5" between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.

 

I think most of mine is gone by Sunday. It will probably be one of those deals where shaded areas are covered, but sunny areas or windblown areas are bare. 4 days of assault are a lot. Definitely a different story further NW where there is 10" more OTG.

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Someone just died in Weymouth yesterday from a roof collapse. Granted it was probably not up to code, but they added weight from rain doesn't help. The next few days will alleviate that.

 

 

Someone just died in Weymouth yesterday from a roof collapse. Granted it was probably not up to code, but they added weight from rain doesn't help. The next few days will alleviate that.

Wasn't that a carport?

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LOL, WF will go where they want despite snowpack. That's a piss poor argument. So you are saying everyone will stay below 40? You aren't being clear. ORH..interior NE MA won't warm sector I agree..but I bet BOS does for an hour or two at least. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things. 

 

 

 

The cold seclusion you see below is because of the snow pack in the MA modulating the llv thickness post the big event in  January of 1996.  

 

post-904-0-29366800-1392994406_thumb.jpg

 

And I am being perfectly clear, Scott -- no warm front passage.  Nothing else. Not sure what's going on with your interpretation skills but I think you are filtering through a bad attitude ...or some kind of of adversarial issue this morning.   

 

I know my stuff in this field.  I don't pose "piss poor arguments."   If you really believe that snow pack doesn't modulate llv thickness, and don't then understand how that impedes frontal positioning, your lacking in your education/rudimentary understanding of some basic meteorological principles. 

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I think most of mine is gone by Sunday. It will probably be one of those deals where shaded areas are covered, but sunny areas or windblown areas are bare. 4 days of assault are a lot. Definitely a different story further NW where there is 10" more OTG.

I have a snow stake out front in my house which definitely doesn't hold on to snow well but I prefer to keep it there so I can look at it every day.

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The cold seclusion you see below is because of the snow pack in the MA modulating the llv thickness post the big event in  January of 1996.  

 

attachicon.gifcold11.jpg

 

And I am being perfectly clear, Scott -- no warm front passage.  Nothing else. Not sure what's going on with your interpretation skills but I think you are filtering through a bad attitude ...or some kind of of adversarial issue this morning.   

 

I know my stuff in this field.  I don't pose "piss poor arguments."   If you really believe that snow pack doesn't modulate llv thickness, and don't then understand how that impedes frontal positioning, your lacking in your education/rudimentary understanding of some basic meteorological principles. 

:lol: Can't stop laughing

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The cold seclusion you see below is because of the snow pack in the MA modulating the llv thickness post the big event in  January of 1996.  

 

attachicon.gifcold11.jpg

 

And I am being perfectly clear, Scott -- no warm front passage.  Nothing else. Not sure what's going on with your interpretation skills but I think you are filtering through a bad attitude ...or some kind of of adversarial issue this morning.   

 

I know my stuff in this field.  I don't pose "piss poor arguments."   If you really believe that snow pack doesn't modulate llv thickness, and don't then understand how that impedes frontal positioning, your lacking in your education/rudimentary understanding of some basic meteorological principles. 

 

Your logic is flimsy at best. WF passages have a lot to do with low pressure strength, The fact that this is maturing well west is why the triple point goes over ern areas. You just made my argument with low strength moving the WF north because in that image..the MA had snowpack. 1994 is another example where many areas  were beloiw 0F and furnaced to above 50F that afternoon. A lot of it has to do with antecedent airmass, ageostrophic flow from any high to the north and strength and deepening of low pressure to the west. I think we both agree the interior will stay cold, but you are saying nobody will warm sector. I find that hard to believe. Your logic is akin to snow not sticking because of warm ground. Snowpack helps to a point, but this "argument" is overwhelmed if low pressure deepens and moves west. That's obvious not the case here, but I don't see how you come around with the statement saying everyone will stay below 40F. ACK is 44 now with a SE wind. This whole warm sector is coming up from more of the SE-S direction..not SW direction. In other words..a place like Bridgeport will stay wedged longer than srn RI or even PVD. 

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Failed roofs? The sun angle being so high has melted much of the snow off roofs so collapses aren't an issue

 

Not exactly, here in the north central/west corner of RI we still have 15-20" on most insulated roofs; I travelled yesterday between VT and RI and it seems pretty consistent through ORH, up 190, 140, and RT 2. I just raked 15-18" of mashed potatoes off my roof and each dropped with a thud.

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