CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Hi res nam now only has highs in low-mid 40's later today It was warmer than that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 there will not be a warm sector today; that was clear days ago. I'm wondering why this was hit at so hard because it had everything wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 there will not be a warm sector today; that was clear days ago. I'm wondering why this was hit at so hard because it had everything wrong with it. Well in Ayer, no...no sectoring for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Well in Ayer, no...no sectoring for you. Whatever, nyc is NE @ 10kts. They go calm first... This is way over reported, sorry. It just was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Whatever, nyc is NE @ 10kts. They go calm first... This is way over reported, sorry. It just was. A lot of CT up to the pike especially east of 495 will warm sector. It may only be for an hour or two in spots, but they will warm. Not to mention post fropa bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 A lot of CT up to the pike especially east of 495 will warm sector. It may only be for an hour or two in spots, but they will warm. Not to mention post fropa bounce. I'm not talking about post c-fropa, delayed CAA warming... fine. But prior to that, I disagree. deep snow pack ageo- drain in play primary way west attributed light ... only 16kt sw sustained atop mt Washington (22kt 850 rule of thumb for w-frontal displacement E of the elevation) it's just not happening. The higher resolution models have weak secondary low signature for a reason, and the reality is that even for these models they won't resolve the lowest 150mb of BL resistance and that will squeeze that low even more SE. Will nailed it! triple point and warm frontal suppression is the way to go. You don't move warm fronts into NE in this type of regime. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I can see this debate happening now through June 1st ... BD and/or nascent saturated cool pooling; if/when there is any flag movement at all, forget it. I've seen too many forecast' warm humid afternoons in May end up stuck in the late 40s and early 50s with flag wobbles from the NE. There are certain things we look for to overcome actual air motion going SW -- namely, you can't have air actually still moving SW for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Failed roofs? The sun angle being so high has melted much of the snow off roofs so collapses aren't an issueapparently you live in a news void Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Breaking News: Employees evacuated over roof collapse fears http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20140221-NEWS-140229956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 apparently you live in a news void Most roofs around here have alot of snow on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I never understood the fears of rain on snow covered roofs vs an equal amount of liquid in snow form being added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I never understood the fears of rain on snow covered roofs vs an equal amount of liquid in snow form being added Just hype. Won't be many roof issues..unless you're talking about tobacco barns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm not talking about post c-fropa, delayed CAA warming... fine. But prior to that, I disagree. deep snow pack ageo- drain in play primary way west attributed light ... only 16kt sw sustained atop mt Washington (22kt 850 rule of thumb for w-frontal displacement E of the elevation) it's just not happening. The higher resolution models have weak secondary low signature for a reason, and the reality is that even for these models they won't resolve the lowest 150mb of BL resistance and that will squeeze that low even more SE. Will nailed it! triple point and warm frontal suppression is the way to go. You don't move warm fronts into NE in this type of regime. Good luck. LOL, WF will go where they want despite snowpack. That's a piss poor argument. So you are saying everyone will stay below 40? You aren't being clear. ORH..interior NE MA won't warm sector I agree..but I bet BOS does for an hour or two at least. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 I never understood the fears of rain on snow covered roofs vs an equal amount of liquid in snow form being addedsnow sublimates, Kev is being a wad, multiple roof failures on the news yesterday, not a huge problem yet but there were a bunch. And yes Coventry I saw a bunch of houses yesterday with siggy pack. But again Tolland does not rep all of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I never understood the fears of rain on snow covered roofs vs an equal amount of liquid in snow form being added When dry and cold, snowpack tends to cling to itself, offering a bit of "structural" strength that offsets the weight, or at least spreads out the burden. Rain lubricates things and destroys any of that structural/distributional support. However, the biggest problem with rain on roof snow is that it makes that pack deceptively heavy. Add an inch LE of snow and the roof pile gains an obvious height. The same weight of rain probably makes the roof pack look less imposing, thus apparently (and falsely) less threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 snow sublimates, Kev is being a wad, multiple roof failures on the news yesterday, not a huge problem yet but there were a bunch. And yes Coventry I saw a bunch of houses yesterday with siggy pack. But again Tolland does not rep all of CT There's times when you aren't right Steve. it's ok to be wrong sometimes. This is nothing like a couple years ago when we were a month earlier and low sun angle. The sun melted a ton of snow off many roof tops yesterday. Sure there's still snow on roofs. But there's not enough to cause any major problems. 3 more days of sig melting and many roof tops will be bare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 snow sublimates, Kev is being a wad, multiple roof failures on the news yesterday, not a huge problem yet but there were a bunch. And yes Coventry I saw a bunch of houses yesterday with siggy pack. But again Tolland does not rep all of CT There's def been some roof issues the past few days...though thankfully they will be getting less over the next couple days as they shed some of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ended up with about 1/2" of sleet on top of about 1/4" of snow up here at the cabin. Temp seems to have been steady all night at or about freezing. Picked up a new Davis which is reporting 32.2, the older one is 32.9. I guess I got to calibrate. Snowpack is still quite deep despite some settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm down to 12" after peaking at 20". Lost 5" between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 There's times when you aren't right Steve. it's ok to be wrong sometimes. This is nothing like a couple years ago when we were a month earlier and low sun angle. The sun melted a ton of snow off many roof tops yesterday. Sure there's still snow on roofs. But there's not enough to cause any major problems. 3 more days of sig melting and many roof tops will be bare Someone just died in Weymouth yesterday from a roof collapse. Granted it was probably not up to code, but they added weight from rain doesn't help. The next few days will alleviate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The bigger issue is snow falling off the roof-tops and crushing people. Everyone has the metal snow-shedding roofs up here and they are releasing some huge slides right now. Roof-a-launches are a real concern...you'll find your kid in May if he gets caught under one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm down to 12" after peaking at 20". Lost 5" between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday. I think most of mine is gone by Sunday. It will probably be one of those deals where shaded areas are covered, but sunny areas or windblown areas are bare. 4 days of assault are a lot. Definitely a different story further NW where there is 10" more OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Someone just died in Weymouth yesterday from a roof collapse. Granted it was probably not up to code, but they added weight from rain doesn't help. The next few days will alleviate that. Someone just died in Weymouth yesterday from a roof collapse. Granted it was probably not up to code, but they added weight from rain doesn't help. The next few days will alleviate that. Wasn't that a carport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 LOL, WF will go where they want despite snowpack. That's a piss poor argument. So you are saying everyone will stay below 40? You aren't being clear. ORH..interior NE MA won't warm sector I agree..but I bet BOS does for an hour or two at least. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things. The cold seclusion you see below is because of the snow pack in the MA modulating the llv thickness post the big event in January of 1996. And I am being perfectly clear, Scott -- no warm front passage. Nothing else. Not sure what's going on with your interpretation skills but I think you are filtering through a bad attitude ...or some kind of of adversarial issue this morning. I know my stuff in this field. I don't pose "piss poor arguments." If you really believe that snow pack doesn't modulate llv thickness, and don't then understand how that impedes frontal positioning, your lacking in your education/rudimentary understanding of some basic meteorological principles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wasn't that a carport? Same thing...the top or roof area was flat. Steve is speaking about structures. I agree it isn't like 2011 though....but you have 12-18" of water logged snow...that is a lot of weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think most of mine is gone by Sunday. It will probably be one of those deals where shaded areas are covered, but sunny areas or windblown areas are bare. 4 days of assault are a lot. Definitely a different story further NW where there is 10" more OTG. I have a snow stake out front in my house which definitely doesn't hold on to snow well but I prefer to keep it there so I can look at it every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wasn't that a carport? Redneck version of a garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The cold seclusion you see below is because of the snow pack in the MA modulating the llv thickness post the big event in January of 1996. cold11.jpg And I am being perfectly clear, Scott -- no warm front passage. Nothing else. Not sure what's going on with your interpretation skills but I think you are filtering through a bad attitude ...or some kind of of adversarial issue this morning. I know my stuff in this field. I don't pose "piss poor arguments." If you really believe that snow pack doesn't modulate llv thickness, and don't then understand how that impedes frontal positioning, your lacking in your education/rudimentary understanding of some basic meteorological principles. Can't stop laughing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The cold seclusion you see below is because of the snow pack in the MA modulating the llv thickness post the big event in January of 1996. cold11.jpg And I am being perfectly clear, Scott -- no warm front passage. Nothing else. Not sure what's going on with your interpretation skills but I think you are filtering through a bad attitude ...or some kind of of adversarial issue this morning. I know my stuff in this field. I don't pose "piss poor arguments." If you really believe that snow pack doesn't modulate llv thickness, and don't then understand how that impedes frontal positioning, your lacking in your education/rudimentary understanding of some basic meteorological principles. Your logic is flimsy at best. WF passages have a lot to do with low pressure strength, The fact that this is maturing well west is why the triple point goes over ern areas. You just made my argument with low strength moving the WF north because in that image..the MA had snowpack. 1994 is another example where many areas were beloiw 0F and furnaced to above 50F that afternoon. A lot of it has to do with antecedent airmass, ageostrophic flow from any high to the north and strength and deepening of low pressure to the west. I think we both agree the interior will stay cold, but you are saying nobody will warm sector. I find that hard to believe. Your logic is akin to snow not sticking because of warm ground. Snowpack helps to a point, but this "argument" is overwhelmed if low pressure deepens and moves west. That's obvious not the case here, but I don't see how you come around with the statement saying everyone will stay below 40F. ACK is 44 now with a SE wind. This whole warm sector is coming up from more of the SE-S direction..not SW direction. In other words..a place like Bridgeport will stay wedged longer than srn RI or even PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NScitRIWX Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Failed roofs? The sun angle being so high has melted much of the snow off roofs so collapses aren't an issue Not exactly, here in the north central/west corner of RI we still have 15-20" on most insulated roofs; I travelled yesterday between VT and RI and it seems pretty consistent through ORH, up 190, 140, and RT 2. I just raked 15-18" of mashed potatoes off my roof and each dropped with a thud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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