Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Feb 20 th Snow Ice CAD event Obs discussion banter


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 369
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Holy crap is it nice out. This is good for the soul. Chillin' on the deck at work, thinking about grilling and spring skiing. I'll take this for a day. 32F.

 

 

The nice part about days like today and Saturday...they aren't huge snow eater days. The lower dewpoints keep the melting to just a typical steady drip of the roof tops and piles jetting out into the streets and those steep south-facing slopes along the highway.

 

 

I remember the day after the Firehose Storm in March last year we hit 50F under what "seemed" like a tropical sun angle..but dews were in the 20s and we probably only lost a couple inches of pack. Beats those 52/52 rain and fog torches that will obliterate 10" of pack in one afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There could actually be a brief period of snow to start off tonight north of the pike...between about 9pm and midnight. Doesn't look like much but perhaps where it falls decent a quick inch could happen...mostly likely up in SW NH and over to S VT and Rt 2 corridor....sems like that is the best spot for the WAA band to set up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There could actually be a brief period of snow to start off tonight north of the pike...between about 9pm and midnight. Doesn't look like much but perhaps where it falls decent a quick inch could happen...mostly likely up in SW NH and over to S VT and Rt 2 corridor....sems like that is the best spot for the WAA band to set up.

 

The NAM is actually close to start as snow even at BOS, esp just north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well ... that said (not to be a downer by adding unwanted realism...) if nothing else it is a reminder that inevitability days are fast approaching.  In fact, in some respects they are already here.  

 

Right around Feb 10th of every year we notice, a parked car in an open lot on a sunny afternoon warms the interior of the automobile. It really likens to an on-switch, rather abruptly right around that particular date.  Feb 1 ...not so much, Feb 11, you almost don't need to turn on the heater if it is sunny out.  Here we are on the 20th so do the math. Normally on February 10, year to year, we can ignore these sort of signs, as winter times are sure to only slowly unwind.  However, in terms of solar-irradiance alone, snow begins fighting more than just the vagaries of the weather patterns. Yes, if preserving snow pack is your (head) game the lower DPs certainly will help your cause.  But the sun alone, combined with any sooty material that is embedded, particularly in the banks, may as well be a salty fire hose.  

 

In simple terms, the exact same snow pack and atmosphere on Jan 5th would not suffer nearly what the snow pack will, today and Saturday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well ... that said (not to be a downer by adding unwanted realism...) if nothing else it is a reminder that inevitability days are fast approaching.  In fact, in some respects they are already here.  

 

Right around Feb 10th of every year we notice, a parked car in an open lot on a sunny afternoon warms the interior of the automobile. It really likens to an on-switch, rather abruptly right around that particular date.  Feb 1 ...not so much, Feb 11, you almost don't need to turn on the heater if it is sunny out.  Here we are on the 20th so do the math. Normally on February 10, year to year, we can ignore these sort of signs, as winter times are sure to only slowly unwind.  However, in terms of solar-irradiance alone, snow begins fighting more than just the vagaries of the weather patterns. Yes, if preserving snow pack is your (head) game the lower DPs certainly will help your cause.  But the sun alone, combined with any sooty material that is embedded, particularly in the banks, may as well be a salty fire hose.  

 

In simple terms, the exact same snow pack and atmosphere on Jan 5th would not suffer what the snow pack will, today and Saturday. 

Stop with this nonsense!

 

Why aren't you posting about how we have a real chance at seeing a broad 4 ft snowpack across most of New England by early March!  You should be talking about teleconnectors, Archambault events, the impact of -NAO in late winter.  You should be shouting about meridional flow and meridional weenies!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple nights ago I was at the gym around the time of the evening on-camera Mets and they were all assigning Friday as the apogee of warmth this week.

 

Wrong.   What were they thinking?  Did they bother to actually look at the weather charts, and/or employ theoretical Meteorology.  It almost seems like the pantheon of these "entertainers" merely 'rip-and-read' based on a cutting low to the west and those pretty red-colored warm thickness lines.  

 

This is clearly a low level CADed scenario N of a warm front, hung up in S zones, with most models even plotting a weak low on a triple point crossing SE.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well ... that said (not to be a downer by adding unwanted realism...) if nothing else it is a reminder that inevitability days are fast approaching.  In fact, in some respects they are already here.  

 

Right around Feb 10th of every year we notice, a parked car in an open lot on a sunny afternoon warms the interior of the automobile. It really likens to an on-switch, rather abruptly right around that particular date.  Feb 1 ...not so much, Feb 11, you almost don't need to turn on the heater if it is sunny out.  Here we are on the 20th so do the math. Normally on February 10, year to year, we can ignore these sort of signs, as winter times are sure to only slowly unwind.  However, in terms of solar-irradiance alone, snow begins fighting more than just the vagaries of the weather patterns. Yes, if preserving snow pack is your (head) game the lower DPs certainly will help your cause.  But the sun alone, combined with any sooty material that is embedded, particularly in the banks, may as well be a salty fire hose.  

 

In simple terms, the exact same snow pack and atmosphere on Jan 5th would not suffer nearly what the snow pack will, today and Saturday. 

 

I had my subdued mini-meltdown in the February Pattern Thread on the 8th - so that timing is pretty consistent with your thoughts above. The subtle signs were starting to show.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple nights ago I was at the gym around the time of the evening on-camera Mets and they were all assigning Friday as the apogee of warmth this week.

 

Wrong.   What were they thinking?  Did they bother to actually look at the weather charts, and/or employ theoretical Meteorology.  It almost seems like the pantheon of these "entertainers" merely 'rip-and-read' based on a cutting low to the west and pretty warm thickness contours.  

 

This is clearly a low level CADed scenario N of a warm front, hung up in S zones, with most models even plotting a weak low on a triple point crossing SE.    

okay...you are starting to warm up.  Here is the title of the post you need to write:

"The glacierization of New England: Real possibility of record snow pack in New England as teleconnectors line up to produce rarely seen cryosphere.  High latitude blocking and meriodinal flow to produce 50 inch snow pack in large swaths of New England?"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Once March gets within striking distance, I become far more resigned to seeing some snow melting. To me, March is more about potential big threats than about hoping to hold deep winter through nickel and time events, the occasional bigger one, survive a mild up, etc, etc. March is "go big or go home". Last year, we went big, 2001 we went big. It is a transition month in SNE, its pretty much a deep winter month in NNE.

 

Its hard to pick a line but I think if you are north of about Plymouth-TAN-PVD is, you have a plenty deep snowpack, it will make it to the arctic blast you will go into March with full cover and some decent chances for more. What else can you ask for?

 

That said, a small amount of people in the far SE do have a pack that is in trouble through this warm up. I was in Raynham (TAN border on Rt 44) yesterday and they have not even half what Randolph has if that so there are some in danger of torching down to grass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

okay...you are starting to warm up.  Here is the title of the post you need to write:

"The glacierization of New England: Real possibility of record snow pack in New England as teleconnectors line up to produce rarely seen cryosphere.  High latitude blocking and meriodinal flow to produce 50 inch snow pack in large swaths of New England?"

 

I realize what it is you are trying to accomplish -- it's not going work.   ha ha.  

 

Heh, yeah, although the signs are there....  that homage I opined in no way ignores the fact that something downright historic is being hammered by the operational runs, and to a great extend their ensemble means.  The signs will always be there, growing ... steadily, by day, unavoidably.  But, the immediate power of the atmosphere will mute those effects pretty spectacularly, should these late middle and extended range model notions pan out.  The 06z ... well, pick a run, really (or model), ...just like, 474dm thickness in southern Ontario ?  Really -

 

Um... "Day After Tomorrow" leaps to mind. 

 

Barring reducing this discussion to an exercise in histrionics ... I am trying to get my head around what that will be to the sensible weather from the GL to NE.  Now, said erosion of the seasonal affect for the effect of solar-irradiance, notwithstanding, that will off-set that some.  But how much?!  That's just such an overwhelming signal.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize what it is you are trying to accomplish -- it's not going work.   ha ha.  

 

Heh, yeah, although the signs are there....  that homage I opined in no way ignores the fact that something downright historic is being hammered by the operational runs, and to a great extend their ensemble means.  The signs will always be there, growing ... steadily, by day, unavoidably.  But, the immediate power of the atmosphere will mute those effects pretty spectacularly, should these late middle and extended range model notions pan out.  The 06z ... well, pick a run, really (or model), ...just like, 474dm thickness in southern Ontario ?  Really -

 

Um... "Day After Tomorrow" leaps to mind. 

 

Barring reducing this discussion to an exercise in histrionics ... I am trying to get my head around what that will be to the sensible weather from the GL to NE.  Now, said erosion of the seasonal affect for the effect of solar-irradiance, notwithstanding, that will off-set that some.  But how much?!  That's just such an overwhelming signal.  

okay....keep going.  although I don't know if they mods will allow such provocative language, it is pornography after all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Once March gets within striking distance, I become far more resigned to seeing some snow melting. To me, March is more about potential big threats than about hoping to hold deep winter through nickel and time events, the occasional bigger one, survive a mild up, etc, etc. March is "go big or go home". Last year, we went big, 2001 we went big. It is a transition month in SNE, its pretty much a deep winter month in NNE.

 

Its hard to pick a line but I think if you are north of about Plymouth-TAN-PVD is, you have a plenty deep snowpack, it will make it to the arctic blast you will go into March with full cover and some decent chances for more. What else can you ask for?

 

That said, a small amount of people in the far SE do have a pack that is in trouble through this warm up. I was in Raynham (TAN border on Rt 44) yesterday and they have not even half what Randolph has if that so there are some in danger of torching down to grass.

 

I am very much of this ilk, as well... I really have no issue or emotive hurtle to overcome when it comes to letting go of winter.  Really, as soon as I sense the increasing sun angles, a warm day like this pops my id to June 10 really quick.  

 

As far as more practical terms, you are spot on with your assessment of March - imo.  March really is not a month to depend on winter. There have, and will be in future years, Marches that inspire lore, but in my (enter your guess at my age) of life on this planet, living between Michigan and Massachusetts, more Marches had crocus in full bloom by mid month than not.

 

This could be a better than average March this year, but over the longer haul, we shed our expectations for maintenance and instead started hoping on the daily doubles.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple nights ago I was at the gym around the time of the evening on-camera Mets and they were all assigning Friday as the apogee of warmth this week.

 

Wrong.   What were they thinking?  Did they bother to actually look at the weather charts, and/or employ theoretical Meteorology.  It almost seems like the pantheon of these "entertainers" merely 'rip-and-read' based on a cutting low to the west and those pretty red-colored warm thickness lines.  

 

This is clearly a low level CADed scenario N of a warm front, hung up in S zones, with most models even plotting a weak low on a triple point crossing SE.    

Wearing a black turtleneck and spandex shorts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

March is still wintry IMO. I guess if I lived in DC my mind pops to Spring, but excuse me if I don't usher in the season of drizzle and backdoors...especially this season. Plenty of winter to go.

 

I agree its wintry I just don't expect deep winter and, as hard as it is, I'm able to back off the emotional investment in snowpack a tiny bit.

 

This winter sucked for pack retention early on and the rainers between the extreme cold were real downers. Recently it has been made up for. I'm not big into counting days and depths personally but here just south of BOS, we have had what I would describe as a pretty nice pack for at least the last 3 weeks if not more. Taking into account overall depth as it has been on the uptick as well as the decent snowbanks throughout. Of course I want more of that but I'm also a realist and understand 3+ weeks of a damn nice looking snowpack (by my standards) makes me pretty happy in this part of the world. If I wanted to be emotionally invested in more than that, Id move back to K1P1 or Randolph, NH or Pittsburg, NH or something like that. So however the rest of the winter turns out, its gonna be decent in my book. Its already sealed its fate there.

 

I remain in full winter mode RE looking/hoping for threats through the month, for sure.

 

As far as drizzle and backdoors, yes, Id be happy to skip that season every year. Fast forward me straight to June 1st and give me 75 and sunny.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...