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Feb 20 th Snow Ice CAD event Obs discussion banter


Ginx snewx

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Your logic is flimsy at best. WF passages have a lot to do with low pressure strength, The fact that this is maturing well west is why the triple point goes over ern areas. You just made my argument with low strength moving the WF north because in that image..the MA had snowpack. 1994 is another example where many areas  were beloiw 0F and furnaced to above 50F that afternoon. A lot of it has to do with antecedent airmass, ageostrophic flow from any high to the north and strength and deepening of low pressure to the west. I think we both agree the interior will stay cold, but you are saying nobody will warm sector. I find that hard to believe. Your logic is akin to snow not sticking because of warm ground. Snowpack helps to a point, but this "argument" is overwhelmed if low pressure deepens and moves west. That's obvious not the case here, but I don't see how you come around with the statement saying everyone will stay below 40F. ACK is 44 now with a SE wind. This whole warm sector is coming up from more of the SE-S direction..not SW direction. In other words..a place like Bridgeport will stay wedged longer than srn RI or even PVD. 

 

There is/was no flimsy logic in that original statement.  I brought up several points, to argue against warm frontal displacement. You immediately focused on one, snow pack, as though that were the only component in the reasoning.  That's you being flimsy in your read comprehension.

 

And you are just flat scientifically off.   Snow cover does modulate thickness; not arguable.  And that absolutely plays a role in displacing frontal boundaries.  I just put up a verified chart to prove it.  

 

Not sure what your deal is but I'm done with this discussion

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There is/was no flimsy logic in that original statement.  I brought up several points, to argue against warm frontal displacement. You immediately focused on one, snow pack, as though that were the only component in the reasoning.  That's you being flimsy in your read comprehension.

 

And you are just flat scientifically off.   Snow cover does modulate thickness; not arguable.  And that absolutely plays a role in displacing frontal boundaries.  I just put up a verified chart to prove it.  

 

Not sure what your deal is but I'm done with this discussion

 

I addressed the other topics other than snowpack such as low strength and ageo flow and never said snow pack has nothing to do with modulation..it's just an overused weenie topic because in ern MA..warm fronts easily blast through snowpack which if you fast forward a day form your cherry picked example..you would see what happens. If you claim nobody will see any fropa..even HYA or UUU than props to you. My guess is even Kevin is likely wedged..but a lot of se MA to BOS and into PVD and CT south of 84 will get warm sectored briefly..key word briefly..that was always the point. I agree ORH and Interior NE MA won't get close..and likely Kevin. Might only even get to Ginxy perhaps. I just don't agree with the blanket "nobody will get WF sectored because of snowpack" argument.  Maybe you only meant pike north or something.

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There's def been some roof issues the past few days...though thankfully they will be getting less over the next couple days as they shed some of the pack.

yes very true, we received a Dept of Homeland Security CT Bulletin this morning regarding Municipal Buildings as did all towns and Fire Departments. The ongoing concern with flat roofs, north side shaded roofs, additional water weight, future storms.
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Sitting outside DMV in IJD while my son gets stuff done looking at a single family home with easily 18” on the back roof and more on the flat. Any north side roof with small pitch is buried. Looks like quick warm slot, low dews tomorrow Sunday so unless you have steep pitch southern exposure might be smart to clean while it's warmer, just to be safe. What's coming will not melt and who knows what's really coming.

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Man not getting warm here at all at the mountain.  The 2" of snow from last night is still on the trees with no dripping or melting at all.

 

We are about 10F lower than model guidance from yesterday.  I don't know what H85 temps are, but multiple sensors (including NOAA's) are sitting mid-20s at the 875mb level.

 

4,000ft...26F

2,600ft...28F

1,500ft...31F

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