donyewest Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Yeah, I don't have time for discord, so you'll never see me post there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I know 20-21 is unrealistic to expect most years, but too often we’re like a mangy old dog rooting around a dumpster for scraps. SMH. Last night and today were kinda soul crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 54 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: I know 20-21 is unrealistic to expect most years, but too often we’re like a mangy old dog rooting around a dumpster for scraps. SMH. Last night and today were kinda soul crushing. Why were they soul crushing? We really weren’t expected to get anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Why were they soul crushing? We really weren’t expected to get anything but rain. For that exact reason. It wasn’t an ideal track, but normally a late January storm like this provides something frozen. The gfs had this locked down 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 It seems we’re running out of time yet again. Looks warm after the suppressed storm next week and it’ll be mid February before anything could even possibly flip, which is still not a guarantee. The past, present, and future weather at this juncture is, indeed, soul crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: For that exact reason. It wasn’t an ideal track, but normally a late January storm like this provides something frozen. The gfs had this locked down 5 days ago. Oh, okay. Thought you meant you hoped or expected snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: For that exact reason. It wasn’t an ideal track, but normally a late January storm like this provides something frozen. The gfs had this locked down 5 days ago. I'm with you, barely being able to manage a "car topper" in late January is pretty pathetic and depressing, especially when its sandwiched into what is shaping up to be 4 weeks of wasted prime winter. I prefer deep winter, like what we had last week, days and days below freezing with snow cover and frozen ground. If we get a better pattern by mid Feb we can still have a "good" stretch, maybe land a bigger storm, but it gets harder and harder with longer days, higher sun angle and rising avg temperatures to get that deep winter feel by that time. I could care less about March snow unless its a big dog, even then my enjoyment is tempered by hearing birds chirping while I'm shoveling snow and seeing snow melt even though its in the upper 20s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Seems we are chasing a pattern evolution that just keeps getting pushed back in time. Hate to say it but this winter may end up being a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 On 1/26/2024 at 7:22 PM, jwilson said: Pittsburgh's 20-year average (45.60) is up slightly over the 30-year average (43.04), but the average is actually down below that 30-year number if you don't include 2010, which remains a pretty high outlier. I realize this is "cheating" to some degree. I don't put much stock in older climate numbers, either. Stuff from the 1890s and early 20th century is so unreliable, and it isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to our modern data collection methods. I realize they use it because they have it, and we're dealing with a relatively minute dataset as it is even including those years. It's just a grain of salt interpretation for me. Even the more recent 30-year average is such small sample size relative to all our climate history. It's almost impossible to know the extent to which things are changing in terms of snowfall amounts and so forth. There's a few things we do know, which is disruption of the northern jet because of a warming pole, melting sea ice, etc. We've been stuck in a longer-term Nina-like base state and -PDO, but I don't know if that's related to climate change or merely cyclical, or perhaps both. That disruption of the northern jet is likely why we haven't experienced as many clippers of late - the jet often dips south of us or is off-kilter from our latitude. It's not as consistent anymore. That's my theory, anyway. Also why textbook Miller As are less common (and a lack of Ninos). The other clear change is SSTs and how much warmer the ocean is, which is partly why the coastal plain has struggled for snow lately. Although the warmer oceans worldwide disrupt our weather patterns more esoterically, the local Atlantic temps create opportunity for bombogenesis-type events with increased frequency. This is where you perhaps get into a feast-or-famine pattern that means big storm and snow or anything smaller is rain. The ocean is less geographically relevant for us, of course. The warmer oceans, especially on the Atlantic side seem to be leading to more ridging in the SE, makes it harder for the jet stream to dip etc. We constantly see ridges link up to the NAO etc which just nukes any cold air. Clippers generally originate from energy off the pacific, so that whole environment changing due to warmth induced tropical forcing is also a factor. I recall we used to get the PV to sometimes park over Hudson bay more consistently, which provided the perfect avenue to divert the jet stream and those northern stream vorts and associated cold right at us. Clippers with wrap around LES made up a good chunk of our "expected" snow, especially early in the season. December is more like early November in terms of climo now, sometimes you can get a blast of cold, or it gets good towards the end, but the fact the Great Lakes remain ice free into Feb now is crazy. LES was almost always shut down by this time, which might have cut down on our available moisture, but also lost the moderating factor when cold would move in. I do agree our sample sizes are to small to glean much on how things are changing on a scale larger than we can really comprehend within a human lifetime. There are also events in the not to distant past (on a climate timescale anyways) maunder minimum, volcanic eruptions etc. that we don't have a great way to understand how coming out of those vs what the "normal" was prior to make any major takeaways. As you said, there are likely other cyclical patterns within patterns that are constructively interfering to enhance the overall impacts of a warming planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 this is me every single time i start the watching the run of the GFS and don't even see a fantasy storm. This pattern is rough. Hoping second half of February can bring something to cheer for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: this is me every single time i start the watching the run of the GFS and don't even see a fantasy storm. This pattern is rough. Hoping second half of February can bring something to cheer for. Anecdotal I'm sure but these last 2 winters seem so bad from a tracking perspective. I can't seem to recall ones this bad where its literally weeks at a time with nothing remotely trackable. Maybe going back to what KPIT mentioned as far as the slop storms being less numerous has some merit into the trackability aspect. I can recall years back where we would be tracking and eventually go from a few runs jacking us to a few messy inches. At least we were tracking for several days in those cases though. This is just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, dj3 said: Anecdotal I'm sure but these last 2 winters seem so bad from a tracking perspective. I can't seem to recall ones this bad where its literally weeks at a time with nothing remotely trackable. Maybe going back to what KPIT mentioned as far as the slop storms being less numerous has some merit into the trackability aspect. I can recall years back where we would be tracking and eventually go from a few runs jacking us to a few messy inches. At least we were tracking for several days in those cases though. This is just brutal. To your point, here’s today’s 12z GFS snow map for the entire run east of the Rockies. Can it be any more brutal for the heart of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 And the ensemble mean is just as bad. Less than an inch over 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, TimB said: And the ensemble mean is just as bad. Less than an inch over 16 days. And its a recurring theme these past 2 winters. This isn't the only time its been a 1 glance per day at models, nothing happening, shut the blinds period. Wasn't December pretty similar for the most part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Ehh winter looks like its in dire straits. Probably gonna see blocking in April. Good thing I'll be out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I don’t pay for pivotal so I can’t see the EPS snow map, but the mean snow depth peaks at 0.2”. That’s absolutely insane for the first half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Yeah, this feels like a year where our Spring will be screwed up. I wouldn't be surprised if our one white holiday is Easter this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Won’t it be great. Probably no snow and then hit April and weather is exactly the same as January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I can actually get behind the idea of the weekend being warm and sunny and downright springlike, but it really is incredible how fast the models flipped it from cold to warm at fairly close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 ‘ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 im bored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 @TheClimateChangerany January stats to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Tomorrow is groundhog day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 37 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: im bored Yeah, "patience on a monument" will be needed no doubt. I guess we can do some leftover yard and gutter cleaning while we wait. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, TimB said: @TheClimateChangerany January stats to share? Mild and wet. Low temperatures, in particular, were very elevated, but admittedly nothing record-breaking. 8th wettest at Pittsburgh. However, as I previously indicated, it has been the 6th warmest winter to date in the threaded record, and warmest overall since 1949-50. A couple of sites in the CWA with shorter PORs are both in 1st place [DUJ and PHD], with all of the climate sites in the top 10. Of course, the older records were observed in varying locations with differing instruments and site exposure. Snowfall has been fairly anemic but not record-breaking yet. Currently 28th least accumulated snowfall through February 1, according to xMACIS (although I did note a few errors in their snowfall dataset). It is, however, the least snowfall observed through today's date since the winter of 1994-1995. Last winter was in 44th place for least snowfall as of February 1, but a near shut out for the remainder of the winter moved it to 8th least for the season as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Ffs we can’t win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I think this winter is done for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 49 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I think this winter is done for us Afraid so. After a cold and dry weekend, a ridge next week looks very likely, then maybe another trough, then another ridge on the ensembles toward the end of their run and by then it’s a day away from March. This absolutely fucking blows. I can’t believe we had the two worst winters back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It’d almost be better if those elitist NYC fucks didn’t get a win out of this storm while we suffered through two snowless winters in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 And if we’re looking to long-term snow averages at the end of the decade, we’ll already be replacing the 72.1 of 1992-93 with the 17.6 of 2022-23, and now we might be replacing the 76.8 of 1993-94 with like 12-15” in 2023-24. So that’s like a 4” drop in the calculated normals in and of itself, even if the rest of the decade is similar to its 90s counterparts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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