Pittsburgh/Western PA Banter & Complaint Thread

[Tezeta]

Just now, Ahoff said:

What does the sock thing mean?  I've seen it mentioned a couple times.

A sock puppet is an alternate account designed to disguise the true author

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

What does the sock thing mean?  I've seen it mentioned a couple times.

Alt

[Ahoff]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

How far back is it on the discord channel?

I don't have or use discord.  You have to believe me, lol!

[TimB]

@Burghblizz5 years from now when the snow is long gone and the death band is long forgotten, especially by those who weren’t under it, that 2.9 in the record book is all we’ll have to remember this event by. Sorry, but that’s just a fact.

[Ahoff]

18 minutes ago, TimB said:

@Burghblizz5 years from now when the snow is long gone and the death band is long forgotten, especially by those who weren’t under it, that 2.9 in the record book is all we’ll have to remember this event by. Sorry, but that’s just a fact.

lol, stop reading the New York Times.  Snow is not going away.  We’re in a bum pattern, it happens.  Last decade was a pretty decent decade, this one may not be.

[KPITSnow]

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

lol, stop reading the New York Times.  Snow is not going away.  We’re in a bum pattern, it happens.  Last decade was a pretty decent decade, this one may not be.

I do think that there will still be snow. I also think though certain patterns have changed. LES snow used to regularly cut off by January as the lakes froze. Clippers really don’t seem to be a thing anymore. To go with the LES part it seems to be because extended cold snaps don’t happen as much anymore. 

[Burghblizz]

NWS Weather “headlines” aren’t scores. They are just one services way to broadly communicate what they think will happen. We like watches and warnings as weather fans because it kind of validates our tracking.

But no one in there right mind is going to check that 5 years from now. No one cares. People will however remember being stuck in 2” per hour rates.

In fact, headlines are for “county averages”, not for one location. So clearly this was an event that averaged at least 4” in the county. It absolutely “verified” (which again, is just us talking, not some official score).

If that band was 10 miles east and the kid working last night at NWS thought “hmm…I’m puttin up a warning for the county”, does that count as a WSW verified? Or no because half the county didn’t get it?

This stuff can be spun either way. But it’s silly try to position it so it fits the trolling agenda. It was a good winter day for most…a great winter day for some. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

lol, stop reading the New York Times.  Snow is not going away.  We’re in a bum pattern, it happens.  Last decade was a pretty decent decade, this one may not be.

Lol I should have specified, when this snow is gone. I’m not irrational enough to think snow will completely be a thing of the past in 5 years.

[Burghblizz]

And as far as overall “climate”…sure it’s changing. And it’s impacting some things.

But we need a helluva lot more than a poor 18 month stretch to glean that our sensible “snow weather” is significantly different. The data just doesn’t show that.

Our 30 year snow averages continue to go up. And that included a drought that happened in the early 90s. Then we cranked out 3 70” winters over the next 40 months.

Climate change and “snowing a lot in Pgh” aren’t mutually exclusive, especially when viewed in our lifetimes. 

[TimB]

53 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

NWS Weather “headlines” aren’t scores. They are just one services way to broadly communicate what they think will happen. We like watches and warnings as weather fans because it kind of validates our tracking.

But no one in there right mind is going to check that 5 years from now. No one cares. People will however remember being stuck in 2” per hour rates.

In fact, headlines are for “county averages”, not for one location. So clearly this was an event that averaged at least 4” in the county. It absolutely “verified” (which again, is just us talking, not some official score).

If that band was 10 miles east and the kid working last night at NWS thought “hmm…I’m puttin up a warning for the county”, does that count as a WSW verified? Or no because half the county didn’t get it?

This stuff can be spun either way. But it’s silly try to position it so it fits the trolling agenda. It was a good winter day for most…a great winter day for some. 

Well said. It just sucks we couldn’t break the streak.

That said, and I said it yesterday too, I don’t think yesterday’s event was a bust. The advisory verified as a countywide average.

But to those who weren’t under the death band, yesterday will be just another day it snowed.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Lol I should have specified, when this snow is gone. I’m not irrational enough to think snow will completely be a thing of the past in 5 years.

Oh, thank god, lol.  Because that is a crazy take.

[Rd9108]

We could get 50 next year and 40 the next and nobody would remember these bad winters. I barely remember last year already.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

We could get 50 next year and 40 the next and nobody would remember these bad winters. I barely remember last year already.

Exactly.  You have a bad year and move on.  Look the next.  Will we end up below average this year, probably, but that doesn't mean we don't hit the jackpot next year.

[CoraopolisWx]

I think we found our mascot. 

 

[CoraopolisWx]

  

[donyewest]

On 1/20/2024 at 11:46 AM, Ahoff said:

You have a bad year and move on.

Pfft, not this guy.  I keep receipts and hold grudges LOL  Seriously though...I pay attention because a deficit is a deficit does a trendline make.  It's like gambling: You lose, come back to the table to lose again, and then try to play catchup but odds are not in your favor.  Snow is the only respite against the gloom of winter rain and swamp-humid days that run for most of the calendar year.  Especially now that I have a kid, I want them to enjoy winter as much as me, and appreciate cold weather...not be one of those people loving a +25F run in the middle of winter because they are cooold and don't own sweaters?

[Ahoff]

8 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Pfft, not this guy.  I keep receipts and hold grudges LOL  Seriously though...I pay attention because a deficit is a deficit does a trendline make.  It's like gambling: You lose, come back to the table to lose again, and then try to play catchup but odds are not in your favor.  Snow is the only respite against the gloom of winter rain and swamp-humid days that run for most of the calendar year.  Especially now that I have a kid, I want them to enjoy winter as much as me, and appreciate cold weather...not be one of those people loving a +25F run in the middle of winter because they are cooold and don't own sweaters?

I bet they’ll get those type of winters.  We’re in a slump is all.  I mean look at the UK and the winter they’re having.  It’s been incredibly cold and stormy.  that’ll be us again at some point.

[Burghblizz]

25 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Pfft, not this guy.  I keep receipts and hold grudges LOL  Seriously though...I pay attention because a deficit is a deficit does a trendline make.  It's like gambling: You lose, come back to the table to lose again, and then try to play catchup but odds are not in your favor.  Snow is the only respite against the gloom of winter rain and swamp-humid days that run for most of the calendar year.  Especially now that I have a kid, I want them to enjoy winter as much as me, and appreciate cold weather...not be one of those people loving a +25F run in the middle of winter because they are cooold and don't own sweaters?

While gambling and winter seasons are both “independent trials” as far as what happens next, I think both have long term expected outcomes. 

Red and black on Roulette will come up the same % over the very long term. Pittsburgh will get 44” of snow a year over the long term.

And while there are broader climate considerations at play, there hasn’t been an extended period of time where those averages have significantly changed here. So I do think “payback is coming”. It’s worked that way throughout the period of recorded weather history. 

[donyewest]

17 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Pittsburgh will get 44” of snow a year over the long term.

And while there are broader climate considerations at play, there hasn’t been an extended period of time where those averages have significantly changed here. So I do think “payback is coming”. It’s worked that way throughout the period of recorded weather history. 

I would beg to differ, credit to Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49: 

[TheClimateChanger]

Keep in mind that data is subject to smoothing, and there can be variances. The linear regression at PIT over that interval is actually positive, with a slope of +0.05" (or a gain of about 2.5" over 50 years). But most locations around us are negative, and substantially so. Cleveland, for instance, shows a negative slope of -0.29" per year (or a loss of about 14.5" over 50 years). So it's sensitive to start and ending dates - 1973-1974 was a historically bad winter for Pittsburgh, but not as bad elsewhere.

[donyewest]

Furthermore, I have managed to get KPIT to concede that there are data quality issues w.r.t. temperature records when the NWS office took official measurements downtown before the move to Moon (airport).  They have admitted that the records are biased because of all the surrounding industry - hot rolls of steel and giant coke ovens increase surrounding temps, surprise.  So comparing record highs from 188x and the like to now is intellectually dishonest.

Put another way: Even with the biased high temperature readings from the past, the presumption was that there would still be snow in the winter because surrounding areas were cooler in relation, but now Moon is as cool (read: same temp) as the surrounding countryside so it requires a totally different mindset.

[donyewest]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Keep in mind that data is subject to smoothing, and there can be variances. The linear regression at PIT over that interval is actually positive, with a slope of +0.05" (or a gain of about 2.5" over 50 years). But most locations around us are negative, and substantially so. Cleveland, for instance, shows a negative slope of -0.29" per year (or a loss of about 14.5" over 50 years). So it's sensitive to start and ending dates - 1973-1974 was a historically bad winter for Pittsburgh, but not as bad elsewhere.

Agreed but the 99.99% winter season temperature-snow relationship run for what would be most of of my, and probably some of yinz, lifetime is essentially = 1 (unless I'm discussing with a statistician because they are all sticklers, in which case, my apologies lol).

[MikeB_01]

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Keep in mind that data is subject to smoothing, and there can be variances. The linear regression at PIT over that interval is actually positive, with a slope of +0.05" (or a gain of about 2.5" over 50 years). But most locations around us are negative, and substantially so. Cleveland, for instance, shows a negative slope of -0.29" per year (or a loss of about 14.5" over 50 years). So it's sensitive to start and ending dates - 1973-1974 was a historically bad winter for Pittsburgh, but not as bad elsewhere.

 

[MikeB_01]

54 minutes ago, donyewest said:

I would beg to differ, credit to Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49: 

maybe im not understnding these charts the way they are suppsed to be understood, but i did the same thing for Des Moines, IA (an area highlights but -50% snowfall). This is what I got. 

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

maybe im not understnding these charts the way they are suppsed to be understood, but i did the same thing for Des Moines, IA (an area highlights but -50% snowfall). This is what I got. 

The -50% snowfall is for Sept-Nov (early season snow). In theory, in a place like Des Moines, a loss of most of their fall snow could really eff their seasonal totals.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, TimB said:

The -50% snowfall is for Sept-Nov (early season snow). In theory, in a place like Des Moines, a loss of most of their fall snow could really eff their seasonal totals.

Shows -5 to -25 percent for annual snowfall for Des Moines. Mostly smoothing, I believe. Even using the annual numbers, DSM shows a slight positive trend [almost flat]. But most locations in the midwest show a much stronger negative trend over that period.

But yeah, definitely a much higher percentage of snow is falling in meteorological winter - and particularly, January and February - than prior decades, in most locations.

[TheClimateChanger]

Good thing this is the banter thread.

It looks like 40N has been the cutoff between huge drops in seasonal snowfall south of that line, and much smaller changes north. @MikeB_01 got me playing around on xmACIS again. And, man, some places not too much further south have been absolutely hammered over the past 50 years.

Charleston, WV

 

St Louis, MO

 

 

[KPITSnow]

If someone wants to post date to prove me wrong, feel free. Where the changes really feel different are a couple places. 
 

one, there is still cold and snow but not quite as many extended cold snaps. Snow cover over a longer period seems less.

 

there also seems to be a change in the types of systems we get. I’d love to know what happened to clippers. I remember we used to get a couple 1-3 or 2-4 type clippers a year and I don’t feel we have in 10 years.

 

The lakes definitely did not used to be open for LES al year. They used to freeze in January cutting off LES. That change seems almost undeniable.

 

I mentioned this to Tim, it doesn’t seem we set up for front end events anymore. Those events we used to go from snow, to ice, then possibly rain seem gone. It always seems to be we are simply riding a kid or snow line immediately. I can’t remember the last time we got a miller b with mixing issues but still a good front end 2-4 inch type thump. 

[TimB]

34 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. 

I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods

For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday?

I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. 

So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. 

 

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, I don't think I chased them to Discord. It was one of the last posts in the thread, because they had already moved to Discord. 

Whoa, back the damn truck up. They moved to discord because of some stuff in the off topic circus that got dragged into their thread, involving one poster and one staff member in particular.

[jwilson]

Pittsburgh's 20-year average (45.60) is up slightly over the 30-year average (43.04), but the average is actually down below that 30-year number if you don't include 2010, which remains a pretty high outlier.  I realize this is "cheating" to some degree.

I don't put much stock in older climate numbers, either.  Stuff from the 1890s and early 20th century is so unreliable, and it isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to our modern data collection methods.  I realize they use it because they have it, and we're dealing with a relatively minute dataset as it is even including those years.  It's just a grain of salt interpretation for me.  Even the more recent 30-year average is such small sample size relative to all our climate history.  It's almost impossible to know the extent to which things are changing in terms of snowfall amounts and so forth.

There's a few things we do know, which is disruption of the northern jet because of a warming pole, melting sea ice, etc.  We've been stuck in a longer-term Nina-like base state and -PDO, but I don't know if that's related to climate change or merely cyclical, or perhaps both.  That disruption of the northern jet is likely why we haven't experienced as many clippers of late - the jet often dips south of us or is off-kilter from our latitude.  It's not as consistent anymore.  That's my theory, anyway.  Also why textbook Miller As are less common (and a lack of Ninos).

The other clear change is SSTs and how much warmer the ocean is, which is partly why the coastal plain has struggled for snow lately.  Although the warmer oceans worldwide disrupt our weather patterns more esoterically, the local Atlantic temps create opportunity for bombogenesis-type events with increased frequency.  This is where you perhaps get into a feast-or-famine pattern that means big storm and snow or anything smaller is rain.  The ocean is less geographically relevant for us, of course.