Pittsburgh/Western PA Banter & Complaint Thread

[cwc]

what will be greater for Jan '19 - number of inches of rain, or snow?

Crazy

[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Still holding out hope for something in the warning criteria like 5-8 by the end of winter. The way this winter is going it maybe hard to pull off until March or april kind of like last year. The models dont know what to do about the long range and honestly the euro flipped from warm up to cold in one run. 

Missing out on that storm last weekend really took the wind out of this place. If we had gotten at least 2-4" on the front end, the overall mood would have a bit more positive. But that dry air/WAA was really dissapointing, and bit unexpected.

Hopefully we can pull something off before our 6 months of summer begin.

[MikeB_01]

Does every system have to cut through Ohio? Like watching a bunch of bowling balls roll through

[jwilson]

This just about sums it up for us.  Welcome to the Screw Zone™ for all time.

[CranberryWX]

I'm ready to cut grass.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

I'm ready to cut grass.

Easy there... Let's not get carried away lol. I need a new lawn mower this spring so I'm even less enthusiastic about grass cutting season starting. 

Anyone have any good recommendations on a good push mower? Prefer non-self propelled. 

I had a basic Craftsman with a 5.50hp Briggs and Stratton engine but it would tend to bog down at time. It was a good mower though otherwise, started on first pull even after long time in the garage. Had it 11 years but it started smelling like gas while sitting in the garage this past year but no evidence of a leak and revving up and down while running. Then this fall on the last cut it started backfiring then wouldn't start. Not sure how interested I am in trying to fix it. 

[Rd9108]

Absolutely insane that we are getting another 2 inches of rain. I'm honestly sick of it. We are getting insane amounts of moisture but we just can't keep the cold air whenever the moisture arrives. Maybe with the MJO going into favorable phases we may can get something decent but I am skeptical. 

[blackngoldrules]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Absolutely insane that we are getting another 2 inches of rain. I'm honestly sick of it. We are getting insane amounts of moisture but we just can't keep the cold air whenever the moisture arrives. Maybe with the MJO going into favorable phases we may can get something decent but I am skeptical. 

Maybe we can break last year's record and go for 60 inches of rain this year. 

[north pgh]

My current conditions 34 and 

 

The new winter normal. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

7 minutes ago, north pgh said:

My current conditions 34 and 

 

The new winter normal. 

Just miserable cold rain.. Maybe we should start tracking mud slides. 

[CoraopolisWx]

2 hours ago, north pgh said:

My current conditions 34 and 

 

The new winter normal. 

40 years of this B.S. has unfortunately given us a large enough sample size to make that statement.

An outsider may simply look at the yearly snow totals and say things aren't that bad, suck it up buttercup. And that may be partially true.

However I believe the NOWData maximum monthly snow depth shows the real picture.

Compare 1949-1979 and 1980-Present.

The number of months with double digit snow depths 1949-1979 dwarfs the past 40 years.

 

[KPITSnow]

11 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

40 years of this B.S. has unfortunately given us a large enough sample size to make that statement.

An outsider may simply look at the yearly snow totals and say things aren't that bad, suck it up buttercup. And that may be partially true.

However I believe the NOWData maximum monthly snow depth shows the real picture.

Compare 1949-1979 and 1980-Present.

The number of months with double digit snow depths 1949-1979 dwarfs the past 40 years.

 

Yeah, I can’t stand when people from other regions say “you get 30-40 inches every year, stop complaining.” Hell I even had someone on our sub tell us that we should be happy to live here snow wise rather than dc because we average around 40 inches.

 

I would rather average 20-25 inches a year, but have a chance at a storm that is a foot plus every couple years rather than having to get excited about events that overperform for 3 inches.

 

Seriously, when I saw the upstate NY crowd complaining about not hitting kuchera totals in our giant bust event several weeks ago, or when I see the mid Atlantic complaining about misses when they’ve had multiple foot plus storms in the last five years, I really have to hold my tongue from getting myself banned.

 

We live in a god awful spot for snowstorms.

[MikeB_01]

How bad has the NAM been at temp profiling this winter? 12Z nam still had freezing rain at the onset of the precip tonight. My house in already at 33°. Well before any precip makes it to the area.

[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

How bad has the NAM been at temp profiling this winter? 12Z nam still had freezing rain at the onset of the precip tonight. My house in already at 33°. Well before any precip makes it to the area.

Just one of those years unfortunately. 

At this point it’s looking like 1962/1993 or bust. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Picture is worth a thousands words...

Insanity Winter 2018-2019 Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results.

 

[KPITSnow]

Screw this winter...honestly screw every winter here. I’m so sick of missing 6-12 inch storms by 100 miles on every side of us. I don not want another 2-4 inch event.

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Screw this winter...honestly screw every winter here. I’m so sick of missing 6-12 inch storms by 100 miles on every side of us. I don not want another 2-4 inch event.

Suck it up buttercup because that's exactly what we are about to get. 

[KPITSnow]

On 2/9/2019 at 12:46 PM, MikeB_01 said:

Does every system have to cut through Ohio? Like watching a bunch of bowling balls roll through

This one on Sunday isn’t!!!

[MikeB_01]

F Boston and their 12" snow storm. They complained all year and it looks like they will be rewarded with it. They got a decent hit today and another one coming tomorrow

[jwilson]

7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

F Boston and their 12" snow storm. They complained all year and it looks like they will be rewarded with it. They got a decent hit today and another one coming tomorrow

Yeah, I get why they were complaining (I think they were at historic levels of futility for snow), but everyone knew they'd play catch-up before long.

Some people just need perspective, really.  There's quite a few in the MA forum especially that would go insane living here.  I can't imagine some of those guys making it 10 years without a double-digit event.

[KPITSnow]

47 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Yeah, I get why they were complaining (I think they were at historic levels of futility for snow), but everyone knew they'd play catch-up before long.

Some people just need perspective, really.  There's quite a few in the MA forum especially that would go insane living here.  I can't imagine some of those guys making it 10 years without a double-digit event.

Lol yeah, screw them. Boston has had so many foot to two foot storms recently I can’t count. The MA too...they’ve had multiple foot plus storms, and several historic storms since our last one in 2010.

Im glad that tomorrow looks like it will screw the MA at least.

[MikeB_01]

Anyone else already tired of Jeff V on twitter? All I hear about it "No hype" / "No Fearcasting".  Great, that is really appreciated. Some stations are notorious for fearcasting, I get it. But come one, he didn't even start talking about accumulating snow until Friday night. He was still saying "snow shower". 

[KPITSnow]

7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Anyone else already tired of Jeff V on twitter? All I hear about it "No hype" / "No Fearcasting".  Great, that is really appreciated. Some stations are notorious for fearcasting, I get it. But come one, he didn't even start talking about accumulating snow until Friday night. He was still saying "snow shower". 

I hate when he calls everything “snowshower.”

[meatwad]

   SPC AC 221807

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   CORRECTED FOR MISSING THUNDER LINE

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be
   possible over a part of the central and southern Plains Thursday.
   Other severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large
   hail are expected from a portion of the Ohio Valley into the
   northern Middle Atlantic.

   ...Upper OH Valley/Northern Middle Atlantic...

   Central US short-wave trough is forecast to eject northeast across
   the Great Lakes and flatten the eastern ridge as 80kt 500mb speed
   max translates across Lake Erie. This feature is expected to aid
   early-morning convection across the OH Valley which will propagate
   into eastern OH/western PA by 18z. Depending on the evolution of
   this convection it appears environmental shear will become favorable
   for sustaining fast-moving organized updrafts. Latest model guidance
   suggests upward-evolving thunderstorms by early afternoon within
   strengthening westerly flow regime. Boundary-layer heating is
   expected to be maximized from south-central PA, south along the lee
   of the central Appalachians. If a cold pool develops early, severe
   thunderstorms should initiate along the
   eastern-southern-southwestern flank of this activity then
   spread/develop east-southeast toward the Delmarva. Several CAMs
   solutions support this scenario and will extend higher severe probs
   into northern MD to account for the more southeast propagational
   component. Damaging winds, and some hail, are expected with
   convection as it spreads across eastern OH/PA toward northern MD by
   late afternoon.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...

   Strong mid-level flow is forecast to round the base of western US
   trough over northern Mexico late day1 into early day2, then
   translate into the central High Plains by 24/00z. In response to
   this feature, LLJ should strengthen across the TX south Plains late
   Wednesday. This will allow for a substantial moisture surge to at
   least 102W longitude where higher terrain and heating along the
   western edge of this moist plume should contribute to robust
   convection. There is some concern that convection could develop
   early in the period along the nose of the LLJ. This activity is most
   likely across the northern TX Panhandle into western KS atop cooler
   boundary air mass that will sag south across the High Plains. This
   early-day convection will likely be elevated and pose primarily a
   large hail threat. However, strong surface heating near the NM/TX
   border will contribute to substantial buoyancy that will become
   uncapped by late afternoon. Forecast shear profiles strongly favor
   supercells and a fair number of storms should ultimately evolve
   across the ENH Risk. High-PW air mass should surge into this region
   such that long-lived supercells are expected. Very large hail and
   tornadoes can be expected with supercells south of the cold front
   that will orient itself across southwest-central KS. If early-day
   convection is less than currently expected, a corridor of higher
   severe probs may ultimately need to be considered across the High
   Plains south of the front.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10%     - Enhanced
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

   ..Darrow.. 05/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1930Z (3:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

 

[MikeB_01]

11 minutes ago, meatwad said:

   SPC AC 221807

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   CORRECTED FOR MISSING THUNDER LINE

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be
   possible over a part of the central and southern Plains Thursday.
   Other severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large
   hail are expected from a portion of the Ohio Valley into the
   northern Middle Atlantic.

   ...Upper OH Valley/Northern Middle Atlantic...

   Central US short-wave trough is forecast to eject northeast across
   the Great Lakes and flatten the eastern ridge as 80kt 500mb speed
   max translates across Lake Erie. This feature is expected to aid
   early-morning convection across the OH Valley which will propagate
   into eastern OH/western PA by 18z. Depending on the evolution of
   this convection it appears environmental shear will become favorable
   for sustaining fast-moving organized updrafts. Latest model guidance
   suggests upward-evolving thunderstorms by early afternoon within
   strengthening westerly flow regime. Boundary-layer heating is
   expected to be maximized from south-central PA, south along the lee
   of the central Appalachians. If a cold pool develops early, severe
   thunderstorms should initiate along the
   eastern-southern-southwestern flank of this activity then
   spread/develop east-southeast toward the Delmarva. Several CAMs
   solutions support this scenario and will extend higher severe probs
   into northern MD to account for the more southeast propagational
   component. Damaging winds, and some hail, are expected with
   convection as it spreads across eastern OH/PA toward northern MD by
   late afternoon.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...

   Strong mid-level flow is forecast to round the base of western US
   trough over northern Mexico late day1 into early day2, then
   translate into the central High Plains by 24/00z. In response to
   this feature, LLJ should strengthen across the TX south Plains late
   Wednesday. This will allow for a substantial moisture surge to at
   least 102W longitude where higher terrain and heating along the
   western edge of this moist plume should contribute to robust
   convection. There is some concern that convection could develop
   early in the period along the nose of the LLJ. This activity is most
   likely across the northern TX Panhandle into western KS atop cooler
   boundary air mass that will sag south across the High Plains. This
   early-day convection will likely be elevated and pose primarily a
   large hail threat. However, strong surface heating near the NM/TX
   border will contribute to substantial buoyancy that will become
   uncapped by late afternoon. Forecast shear profiles strongly favor
   supercells and a fair number of storms should ultimately evolve
   across the ENH Risk. High-PW air mass should surge into this region
   such that long-lived supercells are expected. Very large hail and
   tornadoes can be expected with supercells south of the cold front
   that will orient itself across southwest-central KS. If early-day
   convection is less than currently expected, a corridor of higher
   severe probs may ultimately need to be considered across the High
   Plains south of the front.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10%     - Enhanced
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

   ..Darrow.. 05/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1930Z (3:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

 

Noticed they uped it to Enhanced at the for the latest outlook. Saturday is looking juiced up and ready to go as well.

[MikeB_01]

Atmosphere is looking loaded for tomorrow afternoon. Even though the sounding is saying "Tor" I am not sure i  buy that. Not enough directional shear for it imo. Damaging straight line winds look more likely

[Homie J]

I feel as if we may get the screw zone once more this thursday.  Euro is giving us it, NAM is somewhat giving us it, and CMC is really giving us only rain.  Only GFS is putting snow for us, and only towards the end of the event.     

[MikeB_01]

LOL

[jwilson]

I don't know how others feel, but I prefer a snowy December to snow in March.  Kind of disappointing that we've been stuck in this pattern lately where the snow doesn't really show up until January or even February.  Still, Pittsburgh is way over due for an >8" storm.  Because it isn't unprecedented, I'll consider this some relatively short-term trend.  There have been snow lulls in history, extended ones usually followed up by a massive season of >70" total.

As an illustration:

Six of the last eight years we've had more snow in March than December.  The long-term average still favors December, but they are close.

[Rd9108]

Nice squall rolling through the North Hills/metro. Just wish it was next week and not today. Oh well I feel we will get a nice warning level event this year.