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2/20 - 2/21 Severe Storms Threat


Brick Tamland

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN NC AND NERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 211357Z - 211500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH NERN SC...CNTRL NC
   AND CNTRL VA THROUGH THE MORNING. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 15Z.

   DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF LOWER TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
   SWRN VA THROUGH WCNTRL NC MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE LINE A WARM FRONT HAS BEEN ADVANCING NWD THROUGH VA WITH
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE 12Z RAOBS
   FROM GREENSBORO NC AND CHARLESTON SC SHOW ONLY A VERY SHALLOW
   NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AS WELL AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERSION
   CENTERED AROUND 600 MB. THOUGH DIABATIC WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW 70S WILL
   BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED PARCELS. WITH TIME THE MID-LEVEL
   INVERSION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT
   ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   AS THEY ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY /UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE/.
   STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY 60 KT SLY LLJ AND
   STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN
   THE LINE...INCLUDING EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
   ALSO...STORMS MAY DEEPEN FARTHER EAST ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   BANDS EMANATING FROM THE GULF.

 

 

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Plenty of good LLJ winds showing up on radar just off the surface should see quite a few places with winds hitting 50-60 with this line as it moves east.  No sun so that will keep temps down a little but everyone is in the mid to upper 60's with DP in the low 60's so that is still pretty good for Feb. Seems that chances of a few weaker tornados appears to be higher especially later closer to the coast versus the event last month that hit RDU and other areas so hard.....don't know if this system will rival that one as far as straight line winds go...

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Looking pretty black and nasty off to the west. Good amount of winds blowing ahead of the main band. That band of storms is really starting to strengthen over the last 30 mins in the piedmont. Moving rather slow too so atleast heavy rain, thunder and wind for atleast an hour or more in one location.

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Looking pretty black and nasty off to the west. Good amount of winds blowing ahead of the main band. That band of storms is really starting to strengthen over the last 30 mins in the piedmont. Moving rather slow too so atleast heavy rain, thunder and wind for atleast an hour or more in one location.

 

Let us know if you get big wind.  Looks like you're about to get it soon.

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1007 am EST Fri Feb 21 2014


The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 23 in
effect until 4 PM EST this afternoon for the following areas

In North Carolina this watch includes 24 counties

In central North Carolina

Alamance              Chatham               Cumberland          
Durham                Edgecombe             Franklin            
Granville             Halifax               Harnett             
Hoke                  Johnston              Lee                 
Moore                 Nash                  Orange              
person                Richmond              Sampson             
Scotland              Vance                 wake                
Warren                Wayne                 Wilson              

This includes the cities of...Aberdeen...Angier...Benson...
Burlington...Butner...Carrboro...Cary...Chapel HIll...Clayton...
Clinton...Creedmoor...Dunn...Durham...East Rockingham...Erwin...
Fayetteville...Franklinton...Goldsboro...Graham...Hamlet...
Henderson...Laurinburg...Lillington...Louisburg...Nashville...
Norlina...Oxford...Pinehurst...Pittsboro...Raeford...Raleigh...
Red Oak...Roanoke Rapids...Rockfish...Rockingham...Rocky Mount...
Roxboro...Sanford...Selma...Seven Lakes...Sharpsburg...
Siler City...Silver City...Smithfield...Southern Pines...
Spring Hope...Warrenton and Wilson.


Expires:212100 gmt

 

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
     EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1000 AM UNTIL
     400 PM EST.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
     A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
   WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22...

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SQLN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PIEDMONT NC AND
   NRN SC LATER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND
   CONTINUED NE MOTION OF TN VLY UPR VORT. INTENSITY OF WIND FIELD AND
   PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ROBUST STORMS SUGGEST RISK FOR
   LEWPS/BOWS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.


   ...CORFIDI
 

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1027 am EST Fri Feb 21 2014

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Granville County in central North Carolina...
  Vance County in central North Carolina...
  Wake County in central North Carolina...
  Chatham County in central North Carolina...
  northwestern Franklin County in central North Carolina...
  northern Lee County in central North Carolina...
  Durham County in central North Carolina...
  Orange County in central North Carolina...
  Person County in central North Carolina...

* until 1115 am EST

* at 1026 am EST...Doppler radar indicated a line of severe
  thunderstorms capable of producing destructive winds in excess of
  70 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from 10
  miles northeast of Roxboro to near Carrboro to 9 miles southwest of
  Goldston...and moving east at 50 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
  Raleigh...Durham...Cary...Chapel HIll...Sanford...Henderson...
  Oxford...Roxboro...Hillsborough...Creedmoor...Pittsboro...Wake
  Forest...Garner...Carrboro...Fuquay-Varina...Butner...
  Franklinton...Kittrell...Goldston and Rougemont.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Straight line winds can blow down trees...power lines...and damage
Mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

These storms have a history of producing wind damage.


A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EST Friday afternoon
for central North Carolina.

 

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