Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN NC AND NERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 211357Z - 211500Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH NERN SC...CNTRL NC AND CNTRL VA THROUGH THE MORNING. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 15Z. DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF LOWER TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM SWRN VA THROUGH WCNTRL NC MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE A WARM FRONT HAS BEEN ADVANCING NWD THROUGH VA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE 12Z RAOBS FROM GREENSBORO NC AND CHARLESTON SC SHOW ONLY A VERY SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AS WELL AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 600 MB. THOUGH DIABATIC WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW 70S WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED PARCELS. WITH TIME THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY /UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE/. STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY 60 KT SLY LLJ AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE...INCLUDING EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ALSO...STORMS MAY DEEPEN FARTHER EAST ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS EMANATING FROM THE GULF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm warning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Plenty of good LLJ winds showing up on radar just off the surface should see quite a few places with winds hitting 50-60 with this line as it moves east. No sun so that will keep temps down a little but everyone is in the mid to upper 60's with DP in the low 60's so that is still pretty good for Feb. Seems that chances of a few weaker tornados appears to be higher especially later closer to the coast versus the event last month that hit RDU and other areas so hard.....don't know if this system will rival that one as far as straight line winds go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looking pretty black and nasty off to the west. Good amount of winds blowing ahead of the main band. That band of storms is really starting to strengthen over the last 30 mins in the piedmont. Moving rather slow too so atleast heavy rain, thunder and wind for atleast an hour or more in one location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 There are now warnings all up and down central NC with no watch. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looking pretty black and nasty off to the west. Good amount of winds blowing ahead of the main band. That band of storms is really starting to strengthen over the last 30 mins in the piedmont. Moving rather slow too so atleast heavy rain, thunder and wind for atleast an hour or more in one location. Let us know if you get big wind. Looks like you're about to get it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm warning here. You get anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Let us know if you get big wind. Looks like you're about to get it soon. I will kind of interesting how there is two line around Danville. The one east of Danville has developed in the last 30 mins which will strenghten and become the primary line as it gets close to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 There are now warnings all up and down central NC with no watch. Weird. It is. I thought we would have had a watch this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It is. I thought we would have had a watch this morning. From the Meso discussion, it seems like one will be issued at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 54 mph wind gust at the Greensboro airport. Reports of trees down from these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Forget the severe thunderstorm watch, we're now in a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I don't get why NWS put up a STW for person county.Nothing severe yet about it. Moderate to heavy rain but no wind to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Effective bulk shear. Keep an eye out on be ready to take action folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 1007 am EST Fri Feb 21 2014The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 23 ineffect until 4 PM EST this afternoon for the following areasIn North Carolina this watch includes 24 countiesIn central North CarolinaAlamance Chatham Cumberland Durham Edgecombe Franklin Granville Halifax Harnett Hoke Johnston Lee Moore Nash Orange person Richmond Sampson Scotland Vance wake Warren Wayne Wilson This includes the cities of...Aberdeen...Angier...Benson...Burlington...Butner...Carrboro...Cary...Chapel HIll...Clayton...Clinton...Creedmoor...Dunn...Durham...East Rockingham...Erwin...Fayetteville...Franklinton...Goldsboro...Graham...Hamlet...Henderson...Laurinburg...Lillington...Louisburg...Nashville...Norlina...Oxford...Pinehurst...Pittsboro...Raeford...Raleigh...Red Oak...Roanoke Rapids...Rockfish...Rockingham...Rocky Mount...Roxboro...Sanford...Selma...Seven Lakes...Sharpsburg...Siler City...Silver City...Smithfield...Southern Pines...Spring Hope...Warrenton and Wilson.Expires:212100 gmt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze Reports coming in to our west of trees and power lines down from this line of strong to severe storms. Damage reported in Alamance County(Mebane), Guilford County(Greensboro) and Stanly County(Albemarle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 23 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1000 AM UNTIL 400 PM EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22... DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SQLN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PIEDMONT NC AND NRN SC LATER THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED NE MOTION OF TN VLY UPR VORT. INTENSITY OF WIND FIELD AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ROBUST STORMS SUGGEST RISK FOR LEWPS/BOWS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 You get anything?Getting hammered with gusts way over 50mph!Tornado warning to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Temp up to 73 winds already gusting 32 out of the south.......line still 2-4 hrs from here going to be a fun afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Under a severe thunderstorm warning now for Wake, Granville, Vance, Chatham, Lee, Orange, Person, and Durham counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Maybe a weak rotation trying to go just north of Chapel Hill Also just north of Pittsboro The sun coming out here has it mixing and the winds are getting pretty nasty just from that some of these gust got to be pushing 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 1027 am EST Fri Feb 21 2014The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Granville County in central North Carolina... Vance County in central North Carolina... Wake County in central North Carolina... Chatham County in central North Carolina... northwestern Franklin County in central North Carolina... northern Lee County in central North Carolina... Durham County in central North Carolina... Orange County in central North Carolina... Person County in central North Carolina...* until 1115 am EST* at 1026 am EST...Doppler radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from 10 miles northeast of Roxboro to near Carrboro to 9 miles southwest of Goldston...and moving east at 50 mph.* Locations impacted include... Raleigh...Durham...Cary...Chapel HIll...Sanford...Henderson... Oxford...Roxboro...Hillsborough...Creedmoor...Pittsboro...Wake Forest...Garner...Carrboro...Fuquay-Varina...Butner... Franklinton...Kittrell...Goldston and Rougemont.Precautionary/preparedness actions...Straight line winds can blow down trees...power lines...and damageMobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structureuntil the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debrisgenerated by damaging winds can be deadly.These storms have a history of producing wind damage.A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EST Friday afternoonfor central North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Might see a tor warn for that rotation north of Pittsboro soon its trying to get going.... NM they cant really hold up they start to show but after a couple of scans they weaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Heavy wind and rain! Trash bins blowing all over the place. Took a power hit, thank goodness it came back after only 5-10 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Getting hammered with gusts way over 50mph! Tornado warning to the South. Yeah man just saw that you should go chase it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Rolling thunder just now. No hail yet. There's more thunder, this time a clap fairly close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I guess no tornado watch for eastern NC huh......kinda weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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