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Feb 19 Minor Event. Obs Banter. Models.


HoarfrostHubb

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0935 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NY...FAR NW CT...MA...VT...NH...SW ME

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

   VALID 191535Z - 192130Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE NY SPREADING
   NEWD ACROSS NW CT...MA...VT...NH INTO SW MAINE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
   APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
   WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NY SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A PLUME OF
   MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40
   TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO
   NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING...HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALBANY NY
   SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
   JUST BELOW FREEZING. THIS PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW LATE
   THIS MORNING IN THE CATSKILLS. HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD
   ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
   HEAVIER BANDS. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS...A MIX OF FREEZING
   RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS IN
   MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY AS ALL SNOW
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

 

 

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Still doesn't answer the question. What's a lot?

 

I'm just trying to gauge upstream obs. You know if you say a lot and it's a couple, that can be useful to me later.

 

 

Looks liek MSV and AVP are 1/4 and 1/2 respectively...NJ not so much. FWN is 1 mile SN- right now....though there are probably more elevated pockets near the border that are snowing harder given FWN is "only" about 500 feet elevation.

 

 

Actually AVP just flipped to rain on the latest obs, but MSV still at 1/4 mile.

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Looks liek MSV and AVP are 1/4 and 1/2 respectively...NJ not so much. FWN is 1 mile SN- right now....though there are probably more elevated pockets near the border that are snowing harder given FWN is "only" about 500 feet elevation.

 

 

Actually AVP just flipped to rain on the latest obs, but MSV still at 1/4 mile.

 

That stuff by MSV will be what I'm dealing with on my shift later. Never a dull moment in this stretch.

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That stuff by MSV will be what I'm dealing with on my shift later. Never a dull moment in this stretch.

 

 

BOX has a ballsy forecast considering no verbatim model guidance was spitting out advisory snow for N ORH county, but their reasoning is solid...high omega in snowgrowth region usually produces latent cooling that models under estimate, so I could see it. Still, not sure I would have the cajones to go advisory snows...but we'll see if that works out. It just might if upstream obs are any indication. A quick 3" plasturing could def happen...I'm just worried that it would start as an hour or 90 minutes of parachutes and then flip.

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BOX has a ballsy forecast considering no verbatim model guidance was spitting out advisory snow for N ORH county, but their reasoning is solid...high omega in snowgrowth region usually produces latent cooling that models under estimate, so I could see it. Still, not sure I would have the cajones to go advisory snows...but we'll see if that works out. It just might if upstream obs are any indication. A quick 3" plasturing could def happen...I'm just worried that it would start as an hour or 90 minutes of parachutes and then flip.

Whats with this second wave and snow late nite Steve mentioned?
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BOX has a ballsy forecast considering no verbatim model guidance was spitting out advisory snow for N ORH county, but their reasoning is solid...high omega in snowgrowth region usually produces latent cooling that models under estimate, so I could see it. Still, not sure I would have the cajones to go advisory snows...but we'll see if that works out. It just might if upstream obs are any indication. A quick 3" plasturing could def happen...I'm just worried that it would start as an hour or 90 minutes of parachutes and then flip.

 

Bold yes, but there is that caveat of freezing rain. They'll verify because any amount of snow plus any amount of freezing rain is a hit. I think you're probably right in not expecting much more than a quick burst.

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