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When Will SNE See The First

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

First risk category dates  

48 members have voted

  1. 1. When Will The First Slight Risk Be Issued?

    • Before May 15h
      11
    • May 15th-May 31st
      21
    • June 1st-June 15th
      7
    • June 16th-June 30th
      5
    • July 1st-July 15th
      1
    • July 16th-July 31st
      0
    • August
      0
    • Other
      0
    • No slight risk issued
      3

  2. 2. When Will The First Moderate Risk Be Issued?

    • Before May 15th
      1
    • May 16th-May 31st
      5
    • June 1st-June 15th
      13
    • June 16th-June 30th
      7
    • July 1st-July 15th
      5
    • July 16th-July 31st
      3
    • August
      1
    • Other
      1
    • No moderate risk issued
      12

  3. 3. When Will The First High Risk Be Issued?


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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

5/31/98 featured high risk in the western counties of SNE.

 

I was definitely going to post something snarky about high risks in New England, but then I actually started thinking about it. It's not that far fetched in a derecho environment. We're basically talking a 60% chance of winds/damage within 25 miles of a point. Not unheard of with the stronger derecho events in the area.

 

But if we're setting the over/under this year at 0.5, I'll take the under.

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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I was definitely going to post something snarky about high risks in New England, but then I actually started thinking about it. It's not that far fetched in a derecho environment. We're basically talking a 60% chance of winds/damage within 25 miles of a point. Not unheard of with the stronger derecho events in the area.

But if we're setting the over/under this year at 0.5, I'll take the under.

I hope we get a big derecho this year but hope it doesnt happen between June 2nd and July 10th unless it's on a Fri-Sun

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Believe me I'm ready for a nice ridge roller. But I still think my chances for a derecho/wind event are much higher 7/16-20 when I'm in Iowa.

Absolutely.

Great area for them too...get those vegetation enhanced near 80F dews with monstrous instability...especially if any EML's move in.

They average something like one ever few years I think it is?

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Absolutely.

Great area for them too...get those vegetation enhanced near 80F dews with monstrous instability...especially if any EML's move in.

They average something like one ever few years I think it is?

 

Pretty close to once a year. My old WFO had significant ones in 2008 and 2012, a few minor ones sprinkled in between.

 

When I lived in Davenport I averaged severe winds 5 times a year. Still haven't seen severe hail falling actually.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Pretty close to once a year. My old WFO had significant ones in 2008 and 2012, a few minor ones sprinkled in between.

 

When I lived in Davenport I averaged severe winds 5 times a year. Still haven't seen severe hail falling actually.

 

5 times per year...that's pretty solid!

 

I've been pretty lucky with witnessing hail.  I saw hail every year from 1998-2008 and I believe have seen it again in every year since 2010.  Only a few years though have I ever seen it more than once a year.  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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5 times per year...that's pretty solid!

 

I've been pretty lucky with witnessing hail.  I saw hail every year from 1998-2008 and I believe have seen it again in every year since 2010.  Only a few years though have I ever seen it more than once a year.  

 

DVN is in such a good spot for wind.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=ev20030820roof

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I've actually thought about going out that way over tet next few years if I can't get out to OK. Lots of areas that are pretty open and flat and you can see pretty far.

 

Honestly it's all great chase country out that way, it will more boil down to better road networks. Some states (like Iowa) have a great gridded system of north-south and east-west roads. Other states have their networks devolve into glorified cow paths.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Honestly it's all great chase country out that way, it will more boil down to better road networks. Some states (like Iowa) have a great gridded system of north-south and east-west roads. Other states have their networks devolve into glorified cow paths.

 

I also feel like it would be less clustered than out west and I'm not really looking to get myself into an area where I may put myself and whoever else I'm with in danger...beautiful thing out that way is you can view a tornado from some miles away and not be in harms way...I'm not worried about massive hail or damaging winds 

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