famartin Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 GFS and EC both hinting at this with the large trough digging over much of the CONUS next week. Trough axis far enough west to allow a storm to come up the coast. Hints at blocking. I probably won't post much again until we're much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Since Feb 25 is my birthday and I've taken the day off of work to do some fun things in Philly, this is a mortal lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Ray posting about a threat 7 days out? This one has legs folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Ray seems the most excited about the LR as I've noticed all year. Hopefully we get a storm that makes him book plane tickets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Ray seems the most excited about the LR as I've noticed all year. Hopefully we get a storm that makes him book plane tickets here If this happens when it looks like it might right now, I could. Which is why it won't happen. But seriously, the pattern looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 GFS and EC both hinting at this with the large trough digging over much of the CONUS next week. Trough axis far enough west to allow a storm to come up the coast. Hints at blocking. I probably won't post much again until we're much closer. Why? Pricing airfares for a trip home? HM sounds interested in the MA forum, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 My son's 1st Birthday...lets roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 If this happens when it looks like it might right now, I could. Which is why it won't happen. But seriously, the pattern looks good. Actually I take that back, I had forgotten a schedule change I was requested to make, so I couldn't come home for this if it happens. OK, odds just went up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Actually I take that back, I had forgotten a schedule change I was requested to make, so I couldn't come home for this if it happens. OK, odds just went up I was going to suggest booking a flight for one of those days, the chances could go up that way too, correct? (lol)(ducking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The euro 12z looks strange not bringing it up the coast but I'm no Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The euro 12z looks strange not bringing it up the coast but I'm no Met. Reading DT's page refers to a high pressure in Texas forcing ots. However looking back at the surface maps during 1/6/96 there was a high in Texas also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Reading DT's page refers to a high pressure in Texas forcing ots. However looking back at the surface maps during 1/6/96 there was a high in Texas also... Any other Philly winter "agreed".... This winter "up the coast she'll come"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Some of the 12z GFS ensembles have a very intense Nor Easter, The 12z EURO shows a light scrape of a bombing low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Some of the 12z GFS ensembles have a very intense Nor Easter, The 12z EURO shows a light scrape of a bombing low... Some as in just a few? Would you happen to be able to give a count...thanks. Also, what's causing the scrape from the Euro, is it the High pressure in Texas forcing the low OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Very good discussion going on in the MA forum...is there any way we could see maps...I have been reading about a 1040hp to the north...even if it doesn't verify it would be a site to see. Edit: just read some of the posts in the ma forum and it is for 3/1...oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Not as much hope for this event as earlier, large-wise, perhaps, but still some snow around this time seems very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 12z ECM coming back with the 26th storm, 3" snow event in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 and the March 1 storm trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 and the March 1 storm trends Went from a cutter 0z to the carolinas 12z. Looks just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Went from a cutter 0z to the carolinas 12z. Looks just fine Perfect. It has us bracketed... now it just has to zero in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Still think Wednesday is the main show this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Still think Wednesday is the main show this week. and your range thinking at this point is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I agree with Qtown that the low shown on the Euro has that look that it could come up the coast. Probably with some small changes in the polar vortex which is not unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 and your range thinking at this point is..... Several inches of accumulation shown on both the op EC and GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 ECM has turned into Dr Yup this month, ups SEPA qpf to .5" for mid week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 ECM has turned into Dr Yup this month, ups SEPA qpf to .5" for mid week event. How does SNJ look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 How does SNJ look? about the same.....qpf .5 or so. haven't checked temps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 about the same.....qpf .5 or so. haven't checked temps yet. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Big difference between the Euro and the other models on the midweek storm. Euro just won't give up. Would be interesting to know why. I assume all use the same equations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 Big difference between the Euro and the other models on the midweek storm. Euro just won't give up. Would be interesting to know why. I assume all use the same equations. You would assume incorrectly. The very basic physics are the same, but models are still rough approximations of the atmosphere. Some processes can't be resolved in realistic scales, so they are "parameterized", or approximated, and those approximations do differ from model to model. In addition, the way models ingest data is somewhat different from model to model. And then of course there is the model resolution (basically, that's the number of calculations per unit area), which also differs from model to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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