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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


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basically all I was saying thanks. to many people look for back patting rather than verification. The trough mid-month range is definitely going to happen, where and how remains to be seen.

The location is going to be right, I don't see that shifting especially considering how the seasonal trends have been.

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basically all I was saying thanks. to many people look for back patting rather than verification. The trough mid-month range is definitely going to happen, where and how remains to be seen.

 

Cut out this nonsense, jesus christ.

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It goes BOTH ways.  If the mid-term models would have verified most of us would have had 50s and 60s in mid January and then again toward the mid/late period of February.   The models have busted both ways and they normally do.  This happens no matter what the season with the models.

 

Move along ... nothing to see here...

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Its getting comical every day checking the latest run of the CFS weeklies, seeing if warmth shows up at week 4. Nada lol.

 

 

 

Week 3 is definitely doable. That will feel above normal to all of us. Week 4 will probably feel just seasonable to us.  :lmao:

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Week 3 is definitely doable. That will feel above normal to all of us. Week 4 will probably feel just seasonable to us.  :lmao:

Yep lol. Another thing to remember...this is departure from normal. Averages are steadily warming, so mid-30s will feel so mild to us after this winter, but mid-upper 30s is a solid 15+ degrees below normal (for highs) by the end of March.

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I think the backbone of winter has been broken now. We're in the battle zone of Canadian air and Pacific air and it looks like will have near equal amount of days of each for awhile. (especially for the western and central Lakes/OV areas.)

 

AO supposed to stay + for awhile.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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angrysummons might score one, medium range looking much more seasonal

 

'score one' as in this analogy:

 

IF THE CURRENT TIME IS 12:00 NOON:

 

angrysummons:  "it's 5pm"  oops 

1 hour later  -    angrysummons:   "it's 5pm"   oops

2 hours later-    angrysummons:   "it's 5pm"   oops

3 hours later-    angrysummons:   "it's 5pm"   oops

4 hours later-    angrysummons:   "it's 5pm"   oops

5 hours later-    angrysummons:   "it's 5pm"    SCORE!!!!!!!!!

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Lock in the two feet for Geos.  He's getting payback for turning his back on snow this winter. 

 

Only because it just led to more bitter cold, which is useless in my book.

Might start believing a track like that if other models got on board.

 

Last night to catch the 0z EURO at a somewhat decent hour. 

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I'm looking at the long range forecast off the GEM,ECMWF and GFS, all three of their ensemble means are showing a rather strong negative PNA signal around the 18th - 22nd time peroid, while I'm not seeing a strong signal of a se ridge at H5 the surface maps are hinting at a rather strong ridge, I suspect that a stronger se ridge may show up at H5 as we approach that time frame.  Sorry can't post maps, it's from a password protected site.  A western lakes cutter may be in offering.

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I'm looking at the long range forecast off the GEM,ECMWF and GFS, all three of their ensemble means are showing a rather strong negative PNA signal around the 18th - 22nd time peroid, while I'm not seeing a strong signal of a se ridge at H5 the surface maps are hinting at a rather strong ridge, I suspect that a stronger se ridge may show up at H5 as we approach that time frame.  Sorry can't post maps, it's from a password protected site.  A western lakes cutter may be in offering.

 

 

And the euro weeklies say what se ridge? Draw a line from MN se to SC and everything north/ne of it is below normal temps for all 4 weeks leading into the first full week of April. The ridging out west does give way some but holds firm in the sw. Not saying they will be right but sheesh.. The possible exception is week 3 when some bn gets into the PAC NW and we get a little ridging in the Southern Plains ( AN southern Plains and normal up north ) and trough hanging on in the GL/NE/MA/SE.

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And the euro weeklies say what se ridge? Draw a line from MN se to SC and everything north/ne of it is below normal temps for all 4 weeks leading into the first full week of April. The ridging out west does give way some but holds firm in the sw. Not saying they will be right but sheesh.. The possible exception is week 3 when some bn gets into the PAC NW and we get a little ridging in the Southern Plains ( AN southern Plains and normal up north ) and trough hanging on in the GL/NE/MA/SE.

 

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds, the ensembles say a trough out west, but not much of se ridge building up.  Normally mother nature likes a balance....when a trough sets up out west it normally means ridging se.

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It will be interesting to see how this unfolds, the ensembles say a trough out west, but not much of se ridge building up.  Normally mother nature likes a balance....when a trough sets up out west it normally means ridging se.

 

and vice versa and thus trough in east/se and ridge out west.. But yeah it will be interesting to see to say the least. Personally it seems harder to believe now because of how long we have had this sort of pattern the weeklies are showing. Ofcourse back in 2012 the thinking was that all the above normal temps/record warmth would have to give but kept coming.. So yeah not sure what to think? Regardless it is amazing how we seem to keep getting stuck in these abnormal pattern regimes be it warmer or colder. Has me wondering about the summer. Ofcourse in 2012 we got some relaxation in April from the crazy above normal regime so maybe April this go around will see a relaxation from the below normal regime? This pattern just cant keep holding on.

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JB with a shout out to Geos this morning:

"Again,series of potential extreme events ( for season) are showing up that one can simply find very close analogs in past. Nothing new here

There is no sign of sustainable spring for northeast and midwest coming 2-3 weeks to me.Fits & spurts, yes,but cold always waiting to return"

No matter 50's are going to feel glorious tommorow !

post-2221-0-23411100-1394370207_thumb.jp

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