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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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just having some fun with moneybags, it's well into fantasy range and has no support. No reason to say more than that.

 

GGEM disagrees. It's got 1+ QPF of all snow for you guys, but yes, it is in fantasy range. 

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not really lol. Bare ground to I80 maybe

 

Well given that the snow pack extends to the TN valley. It will be quite the retreat!

 

nsm_depth_2014030505_National.jpg

 

FYI: The EURO shows mixing issues up until 156hr for Chicago and the I-80/90 corridor.

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the GGEM shows snow but it's a very different setup and hardly what i'd call support

Similar setup actually, only difference is the Euro dives the low further south. Of course odds are neither will show the same thing next run, but had to at least keep things honest and correct here.

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There really isn't much of a signal either way to be honest, more than likely what that means is that there are solutions all over the place.

 

18z GFS kind of reminds me of the EURO mean. Northern stream completely overwhelms that s/w coming in off the WA coast.

 

Like you implied though...going to change 1000 times between now and showtime.

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18z GFS kind of reminds me of the EURO mean. Northern stream completely overwhelms that s/w coming in off the WA coast.

 

Like you implied though...going to change 1000 times between now and showtime.

That would be my concern with this potential, if the northern stream is too dominant. I think another factor is with this cutoff low that is supposed to dive into Mexico this weekend, new runs have it diving more into Western Mexico vs Northeast Mexico and once it ejects out it is very weak. What this will do is allow the southeast ridge to remain in place vs getting completely flattened.

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Near epic moaning and groaning...since January from some. It's been somewhat entertaining. At some point though, real warmth outside fleeting shots, has to return. Maybe April? Anyways, 0z GEFS keeps on with the overall cool/cold regime for the eastern half of the CONUS through the day 11-15 range.

 

 

 

 

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Don't get me wrong this winter has been extremely cold for many, but it would have been colder if mid and long range had verified. That being said I do believe the troughing that the GFS is showing is probably going to be right, but I'd probably knock 1-2.5C off of those numbers.

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