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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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sassing aside, you have like 2 solid months of winter remaining for big dogs

You're right about that, in 2012 a heavy wet snow of 21" hit overnight in March ( 3rd or 4th I think ).

That said, it would only be adding to seasonal total stats which is all I'm looking for at this point. Any snow that falls this time of year can be wiped away with 2 days of sun and 25 degrees. The snow that is on the ground now will be what last into Spring.

First Semester of Winter, A+.... Couldn't have been any better. Second Semester, too cold, freezing the lake up. If this would have been a tad more moderate Winter and LE lingered more.... an Epic Winter. B+ at this point is fair.

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nightmare on the gfs, deep cold, rain storm, deep cold

wash, rinse, repeat

If that happens I'll give you props. Better chance will enter march madness time frame chasing snow records. Btw..no follow up on the quad cities mega pattern change that should be in effect now. Poor guy.
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talking about the long range

 

and i'm done with 3-5" events for the season but that's OT

 

snob

 

worst call in years

 

reminiscent of JB's December 2000 calls for January 2001 to be the coldest on record in the east....and ending up with record warmth instead.   Insult to injury was his excuse that he nailed it at 500mb but the surface didn't cooperate.

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snob

 

 

reminiscent of JB's December 2000 calls for January 2001 to be the coldest on record in the east....and ending up with record warmth instead.   Insult to injury was his excuse that he nailed it at 500mb but the surface didn't cooperate.

Yup. Remember it well. But joe is going to ride this winter for years to come.

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Next week Thursday is forecasted to DESTROY record low temps through much of the Midwest.

 

The current forecast has the record low beat in Detroit by maybe more than 10-15 degrees on two separate days!

 

Friday Feb 28th record in Detroit is 10F?

 

Lansing is -18F.

 

What am I missing here.

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Davenport used the 384 hour forecast?  To do what?

 

Well, who knows what they were looking at. It was a very unusual discussion.

 

There is a now infamous AFD from DVN about a major pattern change that we are now seeing will verify as the complete opposite. One met mentioned the pattern signal as the biggest he has seen in his career.

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18z GFS showed the Arctic air bookin' it by March 6th. ...I think the change occurs before JB thinks it will. 

He'll likely say that the GFS is breaking the cold too early, as it has much of this winter. Recall the meltdown I had in mid January when it showed late January being a torch. Look at what verified instead.

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He'll likely say that the GFS is breaking the cold too early, as it has much of this winter. Recall the meltdown I had in mid January when it showed late January being a torch. Look at what verified instead.

 

The difference this time though is; it will be March and the snow cover isn't as extensive. But up over your way I could see it hanging around longer. 

 

Let's see if any support grows with that run.

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Just diving into some records for March since the forecast high and low for Friday the 28th is 10/-4, both of these values would be records for the month of March if they were to occur in March. I do expect Saturday next weekend to remain cold, maybe not as cold at 10 for a high though it is early to make that call at this junction. However I do think there is a very real chance of breaking the all time record low for the month of March, which is -4 set back in 1978 and 2003. I wouldn't even be shocked if we beat that value by a decent margin as Saturday does look to remain very cold.

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Next week Thursday is forecasted to DESTROY record low temps through much of the Midwest.

 

The current forecast has the record low beat in Detroit by maybe more than 10-15 degrees on two separate days!

 

Friday Feb 28th record in Detroit is 10F?

 

Lansing is -18F.

 

What am I missing here.

Feb 28th's record is -1 set back in 1994 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_climate.php?file=records_DTW_Feb_inc.htm .

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18z GFS showed the Arctic air bookin' it by March 6th. ...I think the change occurs before JB thinks it will.

I think you better stick with JB this year. It's going to break at some point, and he will be cold when it goes warm but he's stood stout and been right nearly always this year. Granted, when all you do is ride the cold train your going to have a good seasonal forecast when it's cold. Although , he does have some pretty skilled people surrounding him. Y

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I think you better stick with JB this year. It's going to break at some point, and he will be cold when it goes warm but he's stood stout and been right nearly always this year. Granted, when all you do is ride the cold train your going to have a good seasonal forecast when it's cold. Although , he does have some pretty skilled people surrounding him. Y

 

A broken clock is right twice a day, this just happens to be that time of day.

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