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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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this type of cold will only be able to hang on so long this time of year and right when the pattern breaks i'd look for a big dog

You would think so. But it seems like an impossible task to get anything more than open waves/sheared out POS this season (that wrap a decent amount of moisture into the cold sector), at least when it comes to storms that would favor big snows for us.

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this type of cold will only be able to hang on so long this time of year and right when the pattern breaks i'd look for a big dog

 

This^

 

And now we're sitting at the edge of the snow cover.  Unlike before when 70% of the country was covered.

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My guess the pv ends up farther north/west than currently shown and more inline with the downstream changes in the southwest as the drought ends. Should pop a solid southeast ridge and create a impressive barozone for a few days before it pulls out(for good?). If there is going to be the storm, that is the timeframe.

 

hang in there, eventually you're gonna nail it....  Spring IS coming.  

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You would think so. But it seems like an impossible task to get anything more than open waves/sheared out POS this season (that wrap a decent amount of moisture into the cold sector), at least when it comes to storms that would favor big snows for us.

 

 

we're seeing an example right now

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Focused on rain event in the short-term...but yeah, today's 18z GFS is just as impressive.  474 thicknesses near INL and a 1052+ mb high coming down by 3/1...could be some March monthly records set if this verifies verbatim.

I've been hearing some references to the opening days of March 1980 as an analog.

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Two dates/timeframes I'd watch for something is 2/24-25 and 2/27-3/1. Probably minor events, but models seem to be in agreement at systems around those times. Latter one probably has a chance at something a little better, especially if we get a brief PNA dip. Finer details TBD of course. Alas...energy undercutting the west coast ridge, with a rather strong but wide baroclinic zone from north to south, should create some opportunities in the med/long range.

 

 

yeah, I'm gonna stick with the KISS method on this one, hard to imagine zzzzzz prevailing for too long with the type of thermal gradients being advertised towards the end of the month.

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There haven't been many long stretches of inactive weather this winter, I doubt much will change going forward. Those small disturbances showing up on the long range will probably morph into more.

 

Whatever gets Detroit closer to that record... That's all that matters going forward from here. 

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12z GFS with the same general look...brief cold boring period with possible nickel/dimers followed by potential storms

 

Seems the first week of March might have the best chance of some bigger systems. Might as well...as the starts of Jan and Feb pretty much fit that theme. I think there's some fun times ahead.

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LOT ...

HOWEVER THIS MAY BE MILD COMPARED TO THE LATER PERIODS WHEN

GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN

THE -23 TO -28 DEG C RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SFC TEMPS FOR THE

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS...THEN POSSIBLY STRUGGLE

TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY THUR OF NEXT WEEK.

Miserable...at this point.

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