Powerball Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 this type of cold will only be able to hang on so long this time of year and right when the pattern breaks i'd look for a big dog You would think so. But it seems like an impossible task to get anything more than open waves/sheared out POS this season (that wrap a decent amount of moisture into the cold sector), at least when it comes to storms that would favor big snows for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 this type of cold will only be able to hang on so long this time of year and right when the pattern breaks i'd look for a big dog This^ And now we're sitting at the edge of the snow cover. Unlike before when 70% of the country was covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 My guess the pv ends up farther north/west than currently shown and more inline with the downstream changes in the southwest as the drought ends. Should pop a solid southeast ridge and create a impressive barozone for a few days before it pulls out(for good?). If there is going to be the storm, that is the timeframe. hang in there, eventually you're gonna nail it.... Spring IS coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You would think so. But it seems like an impossible task to get anything more than open waves/sheared out POS this season (that wrap a decent amount of moisture into the cold sector), at least when it comes to storms that would favor big snows for us. we're seeing an example right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Focused on rain event in the short-term...but yeah, today's 18z GFS is just as impressive. 474 thicknesses near INL and a 1052+ mb high coming down by 3/1...could be some March monthly records set if this verifies verbatim. I've been hearing some references to the opening days of March 1980 as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Two dates/timeframes I'd watch for something is 2/24-25 and 2/27-3/1. Probably minor events, but models seem to be in agreement at systems around those times. Latter one probably has a chance at something a little better, especially if we get a brief PNA dip. Finer details TBD of course. Alas...energy undercutting the west coast ridge, with a rather strong but wide baroclinic zone from north to south, should create some opportunities in the med/long range. yeah, I'm gonna stick with the KISS method on this one, hard to imagine zzzzzz prevailing for too long with the type of thermal gradients being advertised towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There haven't been many long stretches of inactive weather this winter, I doubt much will change going forward. Those small disturbances showing up on the long range will probably morph into more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There haven't been many long stretches of inactive weather this winter, I doubt much will change going forward. Those small disturbances showing up on the long range will probably morph into more. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There haven't been many long stretches of inactive weather this winter, I doubt much will change going forward. Those small disturbances showing up on the long range will probably morph into more. Whatever gets Detroit closer to that record... That's all that matters going forward from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z GFS with the same general look...brief cold boring period with possible nickel/dimers followed by potential storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z GFS with the same general look...brief cold boring period with possible nickel/dimers followed by potential storms Seems the first week of March might have the best chance of some bigger systems. Might as well...as the starts of Jan and Feb pretty much fit that theme. I think there's some fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 CPC drew a 50% below normal temp. probability group for most of Michigan and Wisconsin for their first March outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The beat goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Drawing maps like those must be like eating a bushel of sour lemons for them. They just want their interns to go back to drawing giant orange maps to forecast the next year+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The beat goes on. off14_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 If March is a turd, i'm going to need medication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 If March is a turd, i'm going to need medication. punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 June will be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Impressive stuff for this late in the season. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 mid 60Fs in Fairbanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 LOT ... HOWEVER THIS MAY BE MILD COMPARED TO THE LATER PERIODS WHEN GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE -23 TO -28 DEG C RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SFC TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS...THEN POSSIBLY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY THUR OF NEXT WEEK. Miserable...at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 yep and bone dry as well....looks like maybe one DAB wave and that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 yep and bone dry as well....looks like maybe one DAB wave and that's it Be surprised if that sticks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Be surprised if that sticks.. consensus on zzzzzz for this period looks good, hopefully we see something once it relaxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 need to replenish the ice cubes in LM after this torch and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro weeklies from last night have a very wintry look all the way through week 4. The trough begins to slowly retro once we get into march which opens up the gulf/SE ridge a bit more along with what seems like non stop EPO and/or PNA ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 the cold is here to stay. been a great Winter. Barring a last minute reach around (Big dog storm), this Winter will receive a B+ final grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro weeklies from last night have a very wintry look all the way through week 4. The trough begins to slowly retro once we get into march which opens up the gulf/SE ridge a bit more along with what seems like non stop EPO and/or PNA ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 the cold is here to stay. been a great Winter. Barring a last minute reach around (Big dog storm), this Winter will receive a B+ final grade. sassing aside, you have like 2 solid months of winter remaining for big dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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