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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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I do sympathy some for those on this board that cry for spring come mid-feb like clock work, but not for the general public and news outlets that buffets up the torches in winter and pukes it down your throat over and over.     I hope this rubber band don't break until april 2016.

 

 

I'm really aiming for a double digit negative departure month, this could end up being the opposite to March 2012.

 

Lansing is sitting at -10.9

 

March 2012 was +14.2

 

We will be putting up double digit negative departure days from Sunday through the end of the month... -14.2 is going to be almost impossible, but its in play.

It would be interesting if we could have the polar opposite of March 2012 in March 2014. I'm hoping for a blend of 1984 and 1870 (when Toronto saw 62" of snow in one month).

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Once I take my last ride of the year in mid March, I will be on the "Torch hard" campaign. Enough to green the grass up and let me clean up the garage, my kids are destroying the inside of the house. My kids can't walk in the yard, its too deep.

Come March, I'm generally only interested in cold weather if it's potentially record breaking, as the opening of March looks to be this year. Other than that, I'd prefer temperatures in the mid twenties with copious amounts of snow for the first half of the month,, followed by temperatures in the 30/low 40s for the second half of the month, with sunshine. I prefer a slow melt so as to avoid flooding concerns. Come April, I'm all for temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

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these days most kids are allergic to snow or anything outdoors in winter.. sad times

 

My 3 year old loves the "mo-mobile"..... Too bad the land owners around me are anal about sleds on their fields. I'd understand if they had a winter crop planted, but they all farm corn to make more ethanol to fuel my...... snowmobile.

 

Irony.

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My 3 year old loves the "mo-mobile"..... Too bad the land owners around me are anal about sleds on their fields. I'd understand if they had a winter crop planted, but they all farm corn to make more ethanol to fuel my...... snowmobile.

 

Irony.

 

That's awesome.  Still a few good parents out there that don't just raise their kids with a video game controller and a cupboard full of Doritos to babysit their kids.

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No talk of the insane record cold at 10 days of the GFS?

850s of -30 C get as far south as MSN.

Focused on rain event in the short-term...but yeah, today's 18z GFS is just as impressive.  474 thicknesses near INL and a 1052+ mb high coming down by 3/1...could be some March monthly records set if this verifies verbatim.

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Amazing amt of cold coming into Canada:

 

 

 

destination: Saukville

 

Looked at the period up to 240 hours. The -30°C air at that level stays just north of you. Green Bay is right on the edge of it by 192 hours. By 222 hours we're both up to -20°C give or take 3°C.

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we are talking about the gfs right?

Not saying it will verify - just discussing what the model says.  

 

You have to admit it's unusual to see a map like that at the very end of Feb. :)

 

Besides, it's 8-10 days out (not 12+)...so it's reasonable to discuss.  Apparently 90% of the board has already moved onto Spring, so forgive me for getting excited about the potential of a final cold shot to put the icing on the cake of a nice winter.

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Not saying it will verify - just discussing what the model says.  

 

You have to admit it's unusual to see a map like that at the very end of Feb. :)

 

Besides, it's 8-10 days out (not 12+)...so it's reasonable to discuss.  Apparently 90% of the board has already moved onto Spring, so forgive me for getting excited about the potential of a final cold shot to put the icing on the cake of a nice winter.

 

At this rate, would it even be the final major cold shot? Maybe nothing quite as extreme, but I don't see any reason why we wouldn't get some good cold shots after this one.  We might want to put that icing on hold because at the very least, the first half of March is going to keep this winter going. 

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Check out the 00z Euro at hour 192/216,  temps... Oo............And looks like were setting up for a prolonged dry stretch, with some crazy cold temps..suppression... UGH 

 

Not to take away from this, but what is shown off the coast of California at the same time is pretty wild. A sub 980 low just west of San Fran at 216 hr.

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Check out the 00z Euro at hour 192/216, temps... Oo............And looks like were setting up for a prolonged dry stretch, with some crazy cold temps..suppression... UGH

I think even though none of the operational models are showing much potential I'd be surprised if there weren't at least a few light to moderate high ratio fluff clipper type events in that pattern.

There will be plenty of energy rotating around the PV and also would expect the thermal gradient to tighten at times because somewhat milder air to the south will try to lift north at times.

The 12 op Euro was hinting at a bigger storm in the LR but unless the PNA can go back negative any potential storminess may favor areas to the south and then the East Coast.

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Not to take away from this, but what is shown off the coast of California at the same time is pretty wild. A sub 980 low just west of San Fran at 216 hr.

Yeah saw that.. Pretty wild! However I really hope that this is not what we see over the next 10 days, just plain cold. EGH.....

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I think even though none of the operational models are showing much potential I'd be surprised if there weren't at least a few light to moderate high ratio fluff clipper type events in that pattern.

There will be plenty of energy rotating around the PV and also would expect the thermal gradient to tighten at times because somewhat milder air to the south will try to lift north at times.

The 12 op Euro was hinting at a bigger storm in the LR but unless the PNA can go back negative any potential storminess may favor areas to the south and then the East Coast.

I really hope so. Otherwise this whole pattern will suppress most storms. With the pattern the EURO and GFS are advertising, ATL looks to be a hotspot for another storm, deep south of course.

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I think even though none of the operational models are showing much potential I'd be surprised if there weren't at least a few light to moderate high ratio fluff clipper type events in that pattern.

There will be plenty of energy rotating around the PV and also would expect the thermal gradient to tighten at times because somewhat milder air to the south will try to lift north at times.

The 12 op Euro was hinting at a bigger storm in the LR but unless the PNA can go back negative any potential storminess may favor areas to the south and then the East Coast.

Every time it has looked cold and dry this year...we ended up on the clipper train.

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My guess the pv ends up farther north/west than currently shown and more inline with the downstream changes in the southwest as the drought ends. Should pop a solid southeast ridge and create a impressive barozone for a few days before it pulls out(for good?). If there is going to be the storm, that is the timeframe.

 

 

lol

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Two dates/timeframes I'd watch for something is 2/24-25 and 2/27-3/1. Probably minor events, but models seem to be in agreement at systems around those times. Latter one probably has a chance at something a little better, especially if we get a brief PNA dip. Finer details TBD of course. Alas...energy undercutting the west coast ridge, with a rather strong but wide baroclinic zone from north to south, should create some opportunities in the med/long range.

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