Whitelakeroy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Holy cold 12Z EURO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Ensembles aren't as impressed. lol, still waiting, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 My point is that if there is snow hanging around it's just going to delay everything further. At least when it does flip to a favorable mild flow, you don't have to waste anytime dealing with fog, drizzle, and an inversion because the snow is trying to keep the temperature from rising. Temperatures can turn on a dime this time of year when a southerly and westerly flow takes hold - w/no snow cover. Fair enough. But even without snowcover, NE flow off Lk Michigan, if it's anything like it is off Lk Ontario, will end up causing Spring to lag anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Fair enough. But even without snowcover, NE flow off Lk Michigan, if it's anything like it is off Lk Ontario, will end up causing Spring to lag anyway. NE flow off the lake would be warm compared to the death wish shown on the GFS...we are so far away from warm weather it's depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Ensembles aren't as impressed. 12z ensembles aren't even out yet. You're just flailing now. JB's titled post today, "INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT NO SUMMER". He specifically targets the great lakes about this concern. Normally I'd laugh, but who the hell knows anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 probably wouldn't be a bad idea to start thinking about punting summer...this pattern isn't going anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The top 6-10 day 500mb analog from the CPC today? 3/13/93. Don't see that one too often. Scratch camping for a while yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 probably wouldn't be a bad idea to start thinking about punting summer...this pattern isn't going anywhere Stats I pulled (haven't posted yet) say don't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Stats I pulled (haven't posted yet) say don't do it. If there is an El Niño there is little doubt summer will be below normal. I think warmest summer month to average will be June, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The 12z Euro is just brutal in the extended. If we can't get some snow to move into 2nd snowiest or challenge #1 in Chicago, just bring on spring. Hopefully it's overdone but -20 and colder 850s over parts of the subforum out on day 9-10 would likely signal record cold for those dates. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I'm cancelling spring. Game over. Fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I'm cancelling spring. Game over. Fail... Haha. We're only 17 days in meterologically! And not even into astronomically. Hey at least you don't have to deal with lake breezes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The latest euro weeklies are just as brutal as the extended 12z euro especially week 2.. 2m Temps are below normal all the way through till the end which takes us to mid April.. Week 4 though is just slightly below unlike the other 3 weeks which show well below normal temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 CFS showing below normal until mid April. Slightly below after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's going to snow again. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's going to snow again. Ouch. Haha. Probably will. Doesn't look like this week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 just looked at the euro and gfs, looks like nothing but more cold anyone who called for anything but a cold spring should probably never be listened to re: medium range forcasting might as well just copy and paste this AFD for the next few months GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE ARRIVINGAROUND MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW TO THE AREA...ONLY TO BEFOLLOWED UP WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE AN EVEN COLDERBLAST OF AIR NEXT WEEK. WHILE ITS STILL BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECASTPERIOD...RUN AFTER RUN THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING AN ARCTICBLAST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY THREATEN RECORDS NEXT WEEK AND NOW THEGFS HAS JOINED THIS BAND CAMP. GIVEN THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THEMEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN DEVELOPING A STRONG REXBLOCK OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH INTO ALASKA THIS WEEKEND ITWOULD SEEM TO BE HIGHLY LIKELY THAT GENERALLY MUCH BELOW AVERAGETEMPS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look particularly nasty. High in the mid to upper 20s. The 0z run does keep the single digits and under temps further north than the 12z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This could set some daily records around here if it verified, -22C 850 temps over YYZ Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Now watch the pattern flip in May and we torch all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Now watch the pattern flip in May and we torch all summer. IMO we're locked in all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 IMO we're locked in all summer You'd think this regime can't keep going. Not like it's even been a little below average...it's been months of way below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Now watch the pattern flip in May and we torch all summer. Maybe not the best way to do it...but, the first three months of this year will rank in the top 10 coldest at IND (since 1943). I looked at the top 20 coldest such periods, to expand the sample size, and then rolled forward to summer temps (JJA). The results are discouraging if you're looking for a torch summer in Indianapolis. Not saying a cool one is a lock either, but there was really only one summer that fits my definition of a torch...and that was 1978...from those 20 years I looked at. Alas, summer is a ways away. Let's get through spring first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 You'd think this regime can't keep going. Not like it's even been a little below average...it's been months of way below average. Pretty impressive fun...especially the first 3 months of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Maybe not the best way to do it...but, the first three months of this year will rank in the top 10 coldest at IND (since 1943). I looked at the top 20 coldest such periods, to expand the sample size, and then rolled forward to summer temps (JJA). The results are discouraging if you're looking for a torch summer in Indianapolis. Not saying a cool one is a lock either, but there was really only one summer that fits my definition of a torch...and that was 1978...from those 20 years I looked at. Alas, summer is a ways away. Let's get through spring first... How many of those were reasonably close to average or above (say -1F or warmer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Maybe not the best way to do it...but, the first three months of this year will rank in the top 10 coldest at IND (since 1943). I looked at the top 20 coldest such periods, to expand the sample size, and then rolled forward to summer temps (JJA). The results are discouraging if you're looking for a torch summer in Indianapolis. Not saying a cool one is a lock either, but there was really only one summer that fits my definition of a torch...and that was 1978...from those 20 years I looked at. Alas, summer is a ways away. Let's get through spring first... You're saying there is a correlation between cold winters and cold summers? We've had many warm summers and cold winters, it's just what the dominant pattern is in place for the majority of that specific season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 How many of those were reasonably close to average or above (say -1F or warmer) I don't know exactly, I deleted the list accidentally. But, I think about half we were right around normal (-1 to +1). Of course I only caught the lack of hot summers, but don't remember the flip side (cold summers). I'll have to recreate it sometime later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 You're saying there is a correlation between cold winters and cold summers? We've had many warm summers and cold winters, it's just what the dominant pattern is in place for the majority of that specific season. Nope, you're reading into it too much. What I said, specifically for Indianapolis, was that of the top 20 coldest Jan-Mar periods...and then rolling forward to summer...did not result in a lot of hot summers. It's purely statistical. Take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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