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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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My point is that if there is snow hanging around it's just going to delay everything further. At least when it does flip to a favorable mild flow, you don't have to waste anytime dealing with fog, drizzle, and an inversion because the snow is trying to keep the temperature from rising. Temperatures can turn on a dime this time of year when a southerly and westerly flow takes hold - w/no snow cover.

 

Fair enough. But even without snowcover, NE flow off Lk Michigan, if it's anything like it is off Lk Ontario, will end up causing Spring to lag anyway.

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Fair enough. But even without snowcover, NE flow off Lk Michigan, if it's anything like it is off Lk Ontario, will end up causing Spring to lag anyway.

 

 

NE flow off the lake would be warm compared to the death wish shown on the GFS...we are so far away from warm weather it's depressing.

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The 12z Euro is just brutal in the extended. If we can't get some snow to move into 2nd snowiest or challenge #1 in Chicago, just bring on spring. Hopefully it's overdone but -20 and colder 850s over parts of the subforum out on day 9-10 would likely signal record cold for those dates.

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The latest euro weeklies are just as brutal as the extended 12z euro especially week 2.. 2m Temps are below normal all the way through till the end which takes us to mid April.. Week 4 though is just slightly below unlike the other 3 weeks which show well below normal temps.. 

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just looked at the euro and gfs, looks like nothing but more cold

 

anyone who called for anything but a cold spring should probably never be listened to re: medium range forcasting

 

might as well just copy and paste this AFD for the next few months

 

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
AROUND MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW TO THE AREA...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED UP WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE AN EVEN COLDER
BLAST OF AIR NEXT WEEK. WHILE ITS STILL BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...RUN AFTER RUN THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING AN ARCTIC
BLAST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY THREATEN RECORDS NEXT WEEK AND NOW THE
GFS HAS JOINED THIS BAND CAMP. GIVEN THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN DEVELOPING A STRONG REX
BLOCK OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH INTO ALASKA THIS WEEKEND IT
WOULD SEEM TO BE HIGHLY LIKELY THAT GENERALLY MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH.
 

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Now watch the pattern flip in May and we torch all summer.

 

Maybe not the best way to do it...but, the first three months of this year will rank in the top 10 coldest at IND (since 1943). I looked at the top 20 coldest such periods, to expand the sample size, and then rolled forward to summer temps (JJA). The results are discouraging if you're looking for a torch summer in Indianapolis. Not saying a cool one is a lock either, but there was really only one summer that fits my definition of a torch...and that was 1978...from those 20 years I looked at. Alas, summer is a ways away. Let's get through spring first...

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Maybe not the best way to do it...but, the first three months of this year will rank in the top 10 coldest at IND (since 1943). I looked at the top 20 coldest such periods, to expand the sample size, and then rolled forward to summer temps (JJA). The results are discouraging if you're looking for a torch summer in Indianapolis. Not saying a cool one is a lock either, but there was really only one summer that fits my definition of a torch...and that was 1978...from those 20 years I looked at. Alas, summer is a ways away. Let's get through spring first...

 

 

How many of those were reasonably close to average or above (say -1F or warmer)

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Maybe not the best way to do it...but, the first three months of this year will rank in the top 10 coldest at IND (since 1943). I looked at the top 20 coldest such periods, to expand the sample size, and then rolled forward to summer temps (JJA). The results are discouraging if you're looking for a torch summer in Indianapolis. Not saying a cool one is a lock either, but there was really only one summer that fits my definition of a torch...and that was 1978...from those 20 years I looked at. Alas, summer is a ways away. Let's get through spring first...

 

You're saying there is a correlation between cold winters and cold summers? We've had many warm summers and cold winters, it's just what the dominant pattern is in place for the majority of that specific season.

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How many of those were reasonably close to average or above (say -1F or warmer)

 

I don't know exactly, I deleted the list accidentally.  :axe:

 

But, I think about half we were right around normal (-1 to +1). Of course I only caught the lack of hot summers, but don't remember the flip side (cold summers). I'll have to recreate it sometime later...

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You're saying there is a correlation between cold winters and cold summers? We've had many warm summers and cold winters, it's just what the dominant pattern is in place for the majority of that specific season.

 

Nope, you're reading into it too much. What I said, specifically for Indianapolis, was that of the top 20 coldest Jan-Mar periods...and then rolling forward to summer...did not result in a lot of hot summers. It's purely statistical. Take it FWIW.

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