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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Hoosier needs to lock the other 2....this is getting confusing, we now have 3 active versions of the same thread.

 

I was trying to find that AFD from DVN about the coming dramatic torchy pattern change.  I need a laugh today.

This one? Believe it was posted on the 5th.

 

 

MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST

MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST

WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE

MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST

I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS

OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND

SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS

AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY

RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED

LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST

WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN

TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME

CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE

ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND

POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM

PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE

IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY

CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN

TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE

EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH

PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH.

  

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This one? Believe it was posted on the 5th.

 

 

MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGEST

MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COAST

WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THE

MAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST

I HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARS

OF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE AND

SHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKS

AND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAY

RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENED

LAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LAST

WINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED IN

TELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIME

CHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WE

ARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND

POSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROM

PAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEE

IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAY

CONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING IN

TELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THE

EARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGH

PW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH.

  

 

Oh my.

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pretty sure they weren't discussing the potential of a two day warm up.  As JB says, and island of warmth in a sea of cold

 

 

yep, I mistook the banter thread title.

Exactly. His arrogance about it all was kinda funny too with such a bold statement, although if he turned out to be right that would have deserved some major kudos. :lol:

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this is starting to get depressing

 

Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this...

 

Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. :D 

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Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this...

 

Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. :D

 

 

patterns getting stuck on repeat has been the rule of the land the past few years

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Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this...

 

Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. :D

 

I agree, from a weather standpoint it is amazing to watch.  I wonder though, the snow pack has been in this area for quite a while, with the loss of it upon us, and by Friday morning especially, do you think these cold anomalies will be tempered?

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Truly, I find it pretty fascinating. Remarkable how the cold has been persistent since November, with some brief warmth mixed in at times. Guess it's just been awhile seen we've seen something like this...

 

Alas, time for all you warm peeps to wagons it W/SW. :D

I told a friend of mine who is ready for summer.. Wouldn't it suck if we ended up with a cold summer this year?  She was none to pleased with that comment of mine.. :lol:

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I agree, from a weather standpoint it is amazing to watch.  I wonder though, the snow pack has been in this area for quite a while, with the loss of it upon us, and by Friday morning especially, do you think these cold anomalies will be tempered?

 

Sure...but I think we stand a good chance at laying down some new snow cover before the next big shot of cold hits. Hopefully anyways.

 

I told a friend of mine who is ready for summer.. Wouldn't it suck if we ended up with a cold summer this year?  She was none to pleased with that comment of mine.. :lol:

 

You know what I root for with summer. :D

 

Most of my friends and golf people think winter is over. 60/70's and sunshine the rest of the way through April, which started yesterday apparently. I bet I know where they got that idea from...

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Sure...but I think we stand a good chance at laying down some new snow cover before the next big shot of cold hits. Hopefully anyways.

 

 

You know what I root for with summer. :D

 

Most of my friends and golf people think winter is over. 60/70's and sunshine the rest of the way through April, which started yesterday apparently. I bet I know where they got that idea from...

Well, that's a cruel joke to play on them! :lmao:

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^Brutal.  If you took the dates off it looks like something straight out of January.

 

That's what I was thinking. Amazing. And it has ensemble support, well maybe not that cold...but cold enough.

 

that's hawt

 

The moans and groans of the weary may be at a fever pitch. 

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That's disgusting unless a storm accompanies it.  I may have to revise my winter grade to an F- if that happens with no added snow (j/k).

 

if we can't break snow records might as well shoot for cold..  sun will feel a lot better anyways than back 3 weeks ago..  doubt geos will even have to wear a coat home from work with the sizzling sun angle.

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The moans and groans of the weary may be at a fever pitch. 

 

 

I do sympathy some for those on this board that cry for spring come mid-feb like clock work, but not for the general public and news outlets that buffets up the torches in winter and pukes it down your throat over and over.     I hope this rubber band don't break until april 2016.

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I'm really aiming for a double digit negative departure month, this could end up being the opposite to March 2012.

 

Lansing is sitting at -10.9

 

March 2012 was +14.2

 

We will be putting up double digit negative departure days from Sunday through the end of the month... -14.2 is going to be almost impossible, but its in play.

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