The end?

[Sn0waddict]

We're due for a crappy spring in these parts...last 3-4 years have featured either warm and dry or cool/dry with limited fog/drizzle/backdoor crap.  

Backdoor cold fronts may be my least favorite thing in the world. I would rather have 33F and rain.

[TWCCraig]

About half of the days last April featured precipitation, and although it didn't amount to much, it was still largely cloudy and damp.

 

April was very dry here. It may have been cloudy but wasn't wet. If the dry stretch in April was to last longer into May, we would have been in a short term drought.  Cloudy skies are pretty normal around here, especially at the coast during the spring time.

[Stormlover74]

April was very dry here. It may have been cloudy but wasn't wet. If the dry stretch in April was to last longer into May, we would have been in a short term drought. Cloudy skies is pretty normal around here, especially at the coast during the spring time.

Its rare to have a "nice" spring in these parts. April is usually in the 50s and fairly wet with a few nice days sprinkled in. May is often the same with a heatwave or 2 and a bunch of cool wet days. Widespread 60s and 70s for long stretches at a time are usually tough to come by.

[TWCCraig]

Its rare to have a "nice" spring in these parts. April is usually in the 50s and fairly wet with a few nice days sprinkled in. May is often the same with a heatwave or 2 and a bunch of cool wet days. Widespread 60s and 70s for long stretches at a time are usually tough to come by.

 

Yeah. I remember last spring there was a nice stretch at the end of April into the beginning of May that had 60's and complete sunshine with onshore flow, that was a gift.

[marsplex]

I will talk spring and warmth anytime. I like all weather not just snow. I am going really be pushing and posting heatwave threads this summer

Ill be with you on that

[marsplex]

This pattern breaks down 2nd week of april,so you have a while to go enjoy the ride

And what evidence do you have to show this? Or are you just assuming this will be the case?

[SACRUS]

I will talk spring and warmth anytime. I like all weather not just snow. I am going really be pushing and posting heatwave threads this summer

 

Ill drink to this in about 3 weeks and root on the heat.  Till then, bring on the records for snow. 

[chietanen]

Its rare to have a "nice" spring in these parts. April is usually in the 50s and fairly wet with a few nice days sprinkled in. May is often the same with a heatwave or 2 and a bunch of cool wet days. Widespread 60s and 70s for long stretches at a time are usually tough to come by.

 

I really loathe March and much of April.  There are exceptions, like March '12, but if it's going to be cold and wet in March, it might as well be really cold and white.  The main thing I look forward to is seeing flowering shrubs, bulbs, and trees in my yard bloom.  

[IsentropicLift]

Mt. Holly is really hammering home the upcoming flooding potential in the afternoon AFD

 

.HYDROLOGY...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE EXISTING SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND CONTAINS 3.0 TO 4.5 INCHES OF WATER OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES OF WATER EXISTS WITHIN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THERE ARE 1.5 INCHES OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. IN ADDITION, QUITE A FEW RIVERS AND LARGE STREAMS IN THE AREA REMAIN ICE-COVERED IN SPOTS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED COLD TEMPERATURES WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING SINCE DECEMBER. THIS COMBINATION OF STORED WATER IN THE SNOWPACK AND ICE-COVERED WATERWAYS RAISES THE CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. PREDICTABILITY...SNOWMELT ALONE USUALLY DOESN`T CAUSE FLOODING IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THERE`S SO MUCH ICE IN THE RIVERS THIS YEAR, THE WATER MELTING FROM THE SNOWPACK COULD INCREASE THE FLOW TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT THE ICE WILL BREAK AND JAMS WILL FORM. ICE JAMS ARE NOT PREDICTABLE ALTHOUGH WE KNOW WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM AND WATER LEVELS RISE, THEY ARE POSSIBLE. SO, WHEN AND WHERE ICE JAMS MAY OCCUR ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT, ALTHOUGH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS DO HAVE FAVORED SPOTS (BENDS IN THE STREAM, BRIDGE ABUTMENTS, PIERS, THE HEAD OF A TIDE). SOMETIMES JAMS DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE WITHOUT PROBLEMS, BUT SOMETIMES THEY CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS. IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS ON TOP OF A RIPE SNOWPACK (A SNOWPACK JUST BEGINNING TO SHED WATER DUE TO MELT), THE COMBINATION OF ADDED WATER PLUS WARMTH, WILL ACCELERATE THE MELTING PROCESS AND INCREASE FLOODING CONCERNS. LARGE SNOWPACKS CAN MELT VERY QUICKLY WHEN WARM, MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THEM AND RAIN FALLS ON TOP OF THEM. THE JANUARY 1996 FLOOD EVENT AND THE APRIL 2005 EVENT SERVES AS EXAMPLES. GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO HELP TO ACCELERATE MELTING. FORECAST...A WARM SPELL LASTING SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SOFTEN AND MELT THE SNOWPACK. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SOFTEN THE RIVER ICE, MAKING IT EASIER TO BREAK. WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALL THESE ELEMENTS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, MELTING SNOWPACK, MELTING RIVER ICE, AND RAIN, BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR AT THIS VANTAGE POINT THAT THE COMBINED EFFECT OF ALL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL BE SEVERE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD MAINSTEM RIVER AND/OR LARGE STREAM FLOODING AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. A BIGGER ISSUE WILL LIKELY BE STREET AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO CLOGGED OR RESTRICTED DRAINS, AS WELL AS SMALL CREEK AND STREAM FLOODING, THE ONES THAT RESPOND MORE QUICKLY. BUT EVENTUALLY, THE SNOW AND ICE WILL GO, IF NOT THIS WEEK, THAN SOMETIME LATER THIS WINTER OR EARLY SPRING, AND HOPEFULLY AT A METERED PACE. WE NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE SIGNS OF FLOODING AS WE MOVE FORWARD.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[REDMK6GLI]

The JMA seasonal is going with below normal temperatures here in March and below or near

for April with near or above normal temperatures in May. It keeps the -EPO blocking pattern going

for the next three months. This would be our second cooler spring here in a row if the forecast

works out.

 

Spring 2013 NYC:

 

March.....-2.4

April.........0.0

May........+0.4

 

MAR.png

 

APR.png

 

MAY.png

this -EPO regime has been nothing short of amazing chris. it really salvaged what could've been a sub-par winter into one of our best with maybe our best yet to come. I almost want to say it made up on its own the crappy teleconnections we've had this winter season ( with small help elsewhere as well to get the snows )

[CIK62]

Just wait for the next powerful El Nino event when 17 years worth of global warming which has been occurring due to a continued increase in CO2 emissions, but which has not shown up in the atmosphere yet---as a new annual global temperature record, is released from the immediate sub-surface layers of the Pacific. This is where scientists say the additional heat has been accumulating. When that time comes many will be wishing for even a 'warm' and 'snowless winter'. I might be one of them despite knowing that it would bore me to death.

PS I think ENSO predictions have been wrong for 2 years now. This month the forecasters backed off a new El Nino by the fall.

If the computer models are not just tossing melting snow and ice-balls at us and are for real, the period from 2/26-3/06, in combination with what has already happened should keep us satisfied till November anyway.

[weatherpruf]

Just wait for the next powerful El Nino event when 17 years worth of global warming which has been occurring due to a continued increase in CO2 emissions, but which has not shown up in the atmosphere yet---as a new annual global temperature record, is released from the immediate sub-surface layers of the Pacific. This is where scientists say the additional heat has been accumulating. When that time comes many will be wishing for even a 'warm' and 'snowless winter'. I might be one of them despite knowing that it would bore me to death.

PS I think ENSO predictions have been wrong for 2 years now. This month the forecasters backed off a new El Nino by the fall.

If the computer models are not just tossing melting snow and ice-balls at us and are for real, the period from 2/26-3/06, in combination with what has already happened should keep us satisfied till November anyway.

 

 

Just wait for the next powerful El Nino event when 17 years worth of global warming which has been occurring due to a continued increase in CO2 emissions, but which has not shown up in the atmosphere yet---as a new annual global temperature record, is released from the immediate sub-surface layers of the Pacific. This is where scientists say the additional heat has been accumulating. When that time comes many will be wishing for even a 'warm' and 'snowless winter'. I might be one of them despite knowing that it would bore me to death.

PS I think ENSO predictions have been wrong for 2 years now. This month the forecasters backed off a new El Nino by the fall.

If the computer models are not just tossing melting snow and ice-balls at us and are for real, the period from 2/26-3/06, in combination with what has already happened should keep us satisfied till November anyway.

Not sure what you mean, but strong El Ninos, at least the 98 one, add up to a warm, wet winter...warm but nasty.

[Rjay]

Not sure what you mean, but strong El Ninos, at least the 98 one, add up to a warm, wet winter...warm but nasty.

Strong El Ninos usually correlate to a little above average precip and slightly above average temps.

I always thought the correlation between strong El Ninos and the weather around here was very wet and slightly above average temp-wise. I guess I was off on the very wet part.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/index.shtml

[Rjay]

Strong El Ninos usually correlate to a little above average precip and slightly above average temps.

I always thought the correlation between strong El Ninos and the weather around here was very wet and slightly above average temp-wise. I guess I was off on the very wet part.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/index.shtml

It is also slightly drier than normal in our area once you get away from the coastal plain.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/jfmpstat/ny0.gif

[Stormlover74]

Strong El Ninos usually correlate to a little above average precip and slightly above average temps.

I always thought the correlation between strong El Ninos and the weather around here was very wet and slightly above average temp-wise. I guess I was off on the very wet part.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/index.shtml

Last one was 97-98 which was an all out torch and very wet (think we dropped below 20 twice all winter)

[Mitchel Volk]

Strong ElNino warm and wet, little snow, weak to moderate ElNino colder and above normal snow for our area.

[Rjay]

Strong ElNino warm and wet, little snow, weak to moderate ElNino colder and above normal snow for our area.

If I hadn't just read those links I posted above, I would have said the same thing as you. The weak/moderate El Nino are colder and snowy than average like you said. But the strong El Ninos are in the links I posted above (a little bit above average in temps and slight above average precip-wise near the coast and slightly below inland.

[FreeRain]

Just wait for the next powerful El Nino event when 17 years worth of global warming which has been occurring due to a continued increase in CO2 emissions, but which has not shown up in the atmosphere yet---as a new annual global temperature record, is released from the immediate sub-surface layers of the Pacific. 

LOL!

[FreeRain]

Just wait for the next powerful El Nino event when 17 years worth of global warming which has been occurring due to a continued increase in CO2 emissions, but which has not shown up in the atmosphere yet---as a new annual global temperature record, is released from the immediate sub-surface layers of the Pacific. This is where scientists say the additional heat has been accumulating. When that time comes many will be wishing for even a 'warm' and 'snowless winter'. I might be one of them despite knowing that it would bore me to death.
PS I think ENSO predictions have been wrong for 2 years now. This month the forecasters backed off a new El Nino by the fall.
If the computer models are not just tossing melting snow and ice-balls at us and are for real, the period from 2/26-3/06, in combination with what has already happened should keep us satisfied till November anyway.

 

[donsutherland1]

I believe CIK62's reference to the buildup of heat in the subsurface referred to oceanic heat content, not sea surface temperatures. El Niño is one mechanism by which that heat is released leading to warmer sea surface and land temperatures (in general, though there is regional variability). In any case, that's a discussion that would best be held in the climate change forum.

[PB GFI]

I believe CIK62's reference to the buildup of heat in the subsurface referred to oceanic heat content, not sea surface temperatures. El Niño is one mechanism by which that heat is released leading to warmer sea surface and land temperatures (in general, though there is regional variability). In any case, that's a discussion that would best be held in the climate change forum.

Amen.

Thank you so much Don .

[FreeRain]

I believe CIK62's reference to the buildup of heat in the subsurface referred to oceanic heat content, not sea surface temperatures. El Niño is one mechanism by which that heat is released leading to warmer sea surface and land temperatures (in general, though there is regional variability). In any case, that's a discussion that would best be held in the climate change forum.

I agree Don, climate change discussion would be best held in the climate change forum.

 

I would also add that such a comment would best be directed to the person who initiated the discussion on climate change in this forum.

[donsutherland1]

I agree Don, climate change discussion would be best held in the climate change forum.

 

I would also add that such a comment would best be directed to the person who initiated the discussion on climate change in this forum.

I agree that all climate change-related discussion should be in the climate change forum. I just tried to address what appeared to be a misunderstanding while refraining from providing any more detail than was necessary. I do agree that initial post on the OHC-El Niño-global temperature connection should go to the climate change forum and I hope that it will be moved there.   

[FreeRain]

I agree that all climate change-related discussion should be in the climate change forum. I just tried to address what appeared to be a misunderstanding while refraining from providing any more detail than was necessary. I do agree that initial post on the OHC-El Niño-global temperature connection should go to the climate change forum and I hope that it will be moved there.   

Yeah I realized I posted an SST graph (lol) after I posted it. Thanks for the clarification.

 

Regards. 

[donsutherland1]

Yeah I realized I posted an SST graph (lol) after I posted it. Thanks for the clarification.

 

Regards. 

No problem at all. I'm looking forward to what the remainder of winter has to offer. The end will come, but I'll cherish every day before then. Afterward, I'll enjoy the spring perhaps a little more after we've come through a special winter.

[yhbrooklyn]

No problem at all. I'm looking forward to what the remainder of winter has to offer. The end will come, but I'll cherish every day before then. Afterward, I'll enjoy the spring perhaps a little more after we've come through a special winter.

LIKE