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Why this winter can be considered the most severe winter of all time for the PHL suburbs

Rib

By Rib,
in Philadelphia Region

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White_Mtn_Wx

White_Mtn_Wx

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BTW Tony Wood from the Philly Inquirer is going to have an article about this in the Sunday edition. I can understand where Rib is coming from in terms of the PHL NW suburbs, for the whole Metropolitan area as a whole, I would still vote on 93-94, the widespread multiple ice storms were more disruptive. Of course this winter is not over yet.....

Any winter mentioned in the same sentence with '93-94 is in a class distinct from all others in our life time.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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What about you city-folk who didn't suffer through as widespread power outages during the ice storm? Would you rank this winter or 95/96 more severe given the similar snow totals? The biggest thing 95/96 has going for it, of course, is the all-time record snowstorm that did paralyze the downtown for days, much more so than any single storm this winter. But the length of the snow season was notable too, from November through April (I know 4/9/96 is debatable in terms of counting...). 

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

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What about you city-folk who didn't suffer through as widespread power outages during the ice storm? Would you rank this winter or 95/96 more severe given the similar snow totals? The biggest thing 95/96 has going for it, of course, is the all-time record snowstorm that did paralyze the downtown for days, much more so than any single storm this winter. But the length of the snow season was notable too, from November through April (I know 4/9/96 is debatable in terms of counting...). 

 

Personally, I would still go back to 93-94.  95/96 was a great snow year, but you have to remember that half of the snow was wrapped up in a single event and, while it was cold, there was not a lot of extreme cold, so I don't know that it quite matches up on "most severe" level of this year or 93-94.  93-94 had the extreme cold, the regular storm events AND even the extended loss of power for many.    

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

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What about you city-folk who didn't suffer through as widespread power outages during the ice storm? Would you rank this winter or 95/96 more severe given the similar snow totals? The biggest thing 95/96 has going for it, of course, is the all-time record snowstorm that did paralyze the downtown for days, much more so than any single storm this winter. But the length of the snow season was notable too, from November through April (I know 4/9/96 is debatable in terms of counting...). 

 

This winter was like a blend of the worst of '77-'78', '93-'94 & '09-'10, having glaciers for streets, multiple mixed precip storms (including the bad ice storm this year not unlike that Jan. 7, 1994 one), and totals approaching '10 (calendar year).

 

The '95-'96 season did have some bad flooding a couple weeks after the 30" dump.  I still remember the tree trunk wedged up high in a stone arch of one of the railroad bridges that go over the Schuylkill.  That was remarkable.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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Personally, I would still go back to 93-94.  95/96 was a great snow year, but you have to remember that half of the snow was wrapped up in a single event and, while it was cold, there was not a lot of extreme cold, so I don't know that it quite matches up on "most severe" level of this year or 93-94.  93-94 had the extreme cold, the regular storm events AND even the extended loss of power for many.    

Ah ok. I had thought the city itself escaped the worst of the ice in 93/94 (since I knew that in at least one, 1/27-28, PHL spiked into the 50's while DC had an ice storm), but looking over Ray's site, there were several prolonged ice events. And February was just a mixy-mess. 

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

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Ah ok. I had thought the city itself escaped the worst of the ice in 93/94 (since I knew that in at least one, 1/27-28, PHL spiked into the 50's while DC had an ice storm), but looking over Ray's site, there were several prolonged ice events. And February was just a mixy-mess. 

 

One of those storms in 1994, they had to close the Schuylkill Expressway and people were trapped up there for 8 hours.  I was on my way to 30th St. to take a train to Baltimore and almost went on it figuring it would be treated.  Luckily as I approached the ramp, they were announcing the closure, so I eased on past and hopped on one of the drives to get to station.  That was also when the entire tristate area was out of salt.  I was able to find some down in Baltimore and brought it back on the train.  That year was dramatic but this year was like a pile-on.  lol

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Lady Di

Lady Di

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My personal thoughts are this winter is close but still does not top 93\94.  Only difference being there were multiple mixed precip.  events that January as compared to one this Feb.  Cold temps could compare too, although shorter lived this season. Lastly,  in 94 the ice jams at the Brandywine Creek when thawed is still the worst I've ever seen flooding there.  It was unreal, and I've seen that creek go over plenty, I'm 52 yrs old.

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bigtenfan

bigtenfan

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In football there is what they call a misery index. A combination of penalties, turnovers missed FGs etc. I wonder if there is an equivalent  for winter. A combination of persistent cold, amount of snowfall, ice , power outages etc.

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Fishmn

Fishmn

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This is the most consistently cold winter I can remember in this area. I was in Vermont in 93-94 which was very cold up there -44F being the coldest reading that winter. I cant remember a snowpack in NJ with such staying power. We have had snow on the ground most of the winter and over 40 days in a row now.

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BucksCO_PA

BucksCO_PA

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This is the most consistently cold winter I can remember in this area. I was in Vermont in 93-94 which was very cold up there -44F being the coldest reading that winter. I cant remember a snowpack in NJ with such staying power. We have had snow on the ground most of the winter and over 40 days in a row now.

 

Using TTN as a reference for the climo winter (DEC-FEB) timeframe you'd probably be surprised there were actually 20 days of 50(+) with (5) of those days being 60(+).

 

The winter of 2002-03 only had a total of (4) 50(+) days with (1) 60(+) day so therefore is was overall & consistently a colder winter.

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

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In football there is what they call a misery index. A combination of penalties, turnovers missed FGs etc. I wonder if there is an equivalent  for winter. A combination of persistent cold, amount of snowfall, ice , power outages etc.

 

Probably not, but you should partner with one of the pros here; create one; and get yourself published in one of the met journals.   

 

EDIT:  Upon re-reading, this came off as if I was being a wise-ass, but I wasn't.  I really think there is a publishable paper in this.  The NESIS started in a paper by Louis Uccellini and Paul Kocin and has now become a fairly standard measure for the severity of northeastern U.S. winter storms.  Your "misery index for winter" could do the same for entire winter seasons (or months or other periods of your choosing).   

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bigtenfan

bigtenfan

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Probably not, but you should partner with one of the pros here; create one; and get yourself published in one of the met journals.   

 

EDIT:  Upon re-reading, this came off as if I was being a wise-ass, but I wasn't.  I really think there is a publishable paper in this.  The NESIS started in a paper by Louis Uccellini and Paul Kocin and has now become a fairly standard measure for the severity of northeastern U.S. winter storms.  Your "misery index for winter" could do the same for entire winter seasons (or months or other periods of your choosing).   

I would think that it would go something like this:

 

Snowfall rank 3rd for now maybe 2nd before all is said and done. Rank of lowest average temps. Not sure where this winter stands. Total ice accumulation rank. The lower the composite number the higher the index.

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BucksCO_PA

BucksCO_PA

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I wonder how much this Winter affected the SST's off the Jersey Shore. Even if the pattern breaks down, every time we have east winds the temperature will radically drop.

Should be some pretty nasty upwelling with a strong west wind this summer along the Jersey coast, picture some days in July that are in the 90's on the beach however the water temp is in the low-mid 50's.

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RedSky

RedSky

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According to extended models this winter will now run into spring 2014 with temps at least.

Pending storms producing snows, well we know how much model watching that will require.

I am done biting on any snow a model spits out for our area untill 24hrs out this month.

 

GGEM's given me 4' snow at 84-96 hours this month

ECM 3' at 168 hrs

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