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2014 Mid-Atlantic Severe Discussion Thread


Kmlwx

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Ahhhh...the sun obs have begun. NAM is basically a dry frontal passage here with a stiff breeze

 

      well, there was never going to be a major QPF signal here, as whatever line goes through at dinnertime will be fast-moving and narrow.   The simulated reflectivity wouldn't be expected to show a whole lot at 12 km either.    The 4 km nest still has a signal of a squall line, although it's admittedly not as robust as some previous runs.    But it's still there, and the latest HRRR has a decent line going through with a threat of lightning.    widespread severe chances are likely decreased, but some sort of gusty line with a burst of rain should move through DC-Baltimore around 6-7PM.    I'll consider thunder a bonus at this point.

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Sun still pretty impotent this time of year compared to May or June. It helps but it's not the main driver here.. It's not going to turn it into a giant event or something.

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So, DC is pretty dry right now...

Thanks.

Everywhere is pretty dry. Dews matter more than RH unless you're looking at cloud bases which should be low with the line anyway. We should see them increase into the 50s still at least to DC but that's kind of marginal for severe unless you're in the High Plains.
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Some notes from the home wxstation:

 

Winds seems to be picking up and temp has continued to rise (due to mixing I assume). Solar Rad was between 200-300 w/m^2 but now is up to ~500 w/m^2 in the last hour and temps have responded to that.

 

Dews remain steady at 45F

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Gust to 48 at IAD...

 

METAR KIAD 121652Z 21027G42KT 10SM SCT055 BKN090 OVC110 18/08 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 22042/1650 SLP900 P0001 T01830078

Might not be hard to get svr gusts in "storms" with that already. 

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