Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I feel like these lines like to clear the area early tho - so that might be a good sign for it not holding off too late Yeah, I think that's true overall. We're in a good spot. It's just so early in the season.. wouldn't be surprised if we're locked in with clouds all day etc. However, sfc heating is not super critical here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Mid Atlantic wedgefest 2014 incoming. just kidding Nah, but it all honesty there is certainly a non-zero tornado threat tomorrow across these areas although I doubt they will be "chaseable" in any sense of the term. Ian makes a good point that surface heating will not be super critical in this situation with such strong low level winds in place, this will be almost entirely dynamically driven (perhaps like the Halloween event in the OV except likely not quite on that kind of magnitude). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z NAM has us approaching 60 degrees by 11am in N VA and DC... prob mid 60s by 2pm.. DP's also in the 50s 981mb in south-central PA at 21z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ahhh.. good ol' SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ahhh.. good ol' SBCAPE. do we have any this run? Thinking prob 500 to 700 is the most we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We may still get 30% wind but doubtful any higher.. some people have been wondering if we might mod risk. New SREF/NAM look a little less impressive than earlier runs IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I predict Mark will end up near the white dot.. partly because it's close to where he lives and he always goes up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We may still get 30% wind but doubtful any higher.. some people have been wondering if we might mod risk. New SREF/NAM look a little less impressive than earlier runs IMO. I'm interested in post frontal winds. Quite an airmass change and tight gradient. Exposed areas and hilltops may get some 50mph gusts. Everybody should see a period of 35+ gusts right? Howling winds and steep temp drops are always kinda fun. Makes the day interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 We may still get 30% wind but doubtful any higher.. some people have been wondering if we might mod risk. New SREF/NAM look a little less impressive than earlier runs IMO. Really? I have to assume the chance of that is near zero. Doesn't have the feel of a mod risk day at all. Pretty unheard of this early for us. Though I have been very wrong about these kinds of things before lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z HI-RES NAM shows the squall line passing through 6:00 PM - 7:00 PM. It also shows 30 - 35 mph sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ian - just took a look at the CWG I think you were referring to - If you look at the SPC disco from 1730z it seems more like they were talking about a bump to 30% as you replied to that person. They specifically mention a jump in probabilities rather than a jump in the categorical risk. I'm thinking under a 2% chance of us getting mod risked tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Really? I have to assume the chance of that is near zero. Doesn't have the feel of a mod risk day at all. Pretty unheard of this early for us. Though I have been very wrong about these kinds of things before lol I'm not completely sure why myself but I've seen it mentioned a few times from diff people. I think it's partly because SPC mentioned "upgrade" in their latest day2 though I took that to mean they may upgrade to 30% wind since it's a 15% zone now. Do think there is probably fairly widespread low end wind risk if things come together right given the alignment of the 500mb vort along the frontal zone. As Bob alluded to though, the biggest winds for many may be behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm interested in post frontal winds. Quite an airmass change and tight gradient. Exposed areas and hilltops may get some 50mph gusts. Everybody should see a period of 35+ gusts right? Howling winds and steep temp drops are always kinda fun. Makes the day interesting. I think many spots will gust to 40kts or so. Hilltops probably past 50kts which is severe level wind if it was in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Tomorrow night could be brutal after 10 or so if the NAM was right... 30 degees and those winds will remind people of winter in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 18z GFS MOS has DCA sustained at 27kts from 3-12z.. and 20+ thru the day. NAM MOS peaks out around 30kts. That's about as high as you'll ever see MOS spit out around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think many spots will gust to 40kts or so. Hilltops probably past 50kts which is severe level wind if it was in a storm. Thawed and squishy ground might bring down some shallow rooted trees. Nothing serious or widespread but some weak ones will prob go down tomorrow night. I have some big trees in my back yard. Not worried because they've been thinned and topped by recent severe but it's always in the back of my mind. Should be some interesting sounds in the yard regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Hi-Res NAM is a beast. Tightest gradient since Sandy, easy. Big squall line forms right on the leading edge of the CAA, followed by a 40 degree temp drop in 5hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm kinda in on tomorrow. The line passage and subsequent period looks pretty fun. I'll be in mt airy during the fropa. Not a bad spot for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Day 1 0600 OTLK is out -- 15 wind/5 hail/ 5 tornado DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ..CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY. A 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT THE SFC...A DEEPENING LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN OH SSWWD ACROSS ERN KY AND ERN TN. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE HI-RES MODELS TO MOVE EWD AND ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS TO THE EAST OF THE CREST BY THE MID AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN MD SSWWD TO NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE VA SHOW A STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH VEERED WINDS AT THE SFC AND 50 KT OF WSWLY FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. THIS ALONG WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS DESTABILIZATION. THE WRF-HRRR DEVELOPS SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN VA EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN PA WHICH COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. THE NAM HAS TWO POCKETS OF INSTABILITY...THE FIRST IN WRN MD AND THE SECOND IN NRN NC SUGGESTING LOCALIZED HEATING SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN CREATING THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MD AND CNTRL VA...ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS SHOULD CREATE A WELL-DEVELOPED FINE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS FAR EAST AS THE COAST OF VA AND NJ BY EARLY EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE AND MAY DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NCNTRL NC IF THE LINE CAN ORGANIZE THAT FAR SOUTH. ..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 03/12/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 as noted by SPC, several HRRR runs now are showing a fairly widespread area of showers over the area from midday into the early afternoon. It still has a break for a couple of hours during the late afternoon and forces a broken line along the cold front, but the overall thunder/severe threat would be reduced by cooling from the showers. Radar does seem to suggest that an area of showers is building over southwest VA and moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 SLGT risk remains at 1300z OTLK... 5% hail contour removed... wind remains 15% and tor drops to 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 as noted by SPC, several HRRR runs now are showing a fairly widespread area of showers over the area from midday into the early afternoon. It still has a break for a couple of hours during the late afternoon and forces a broken line along the cold front, but the overall thunder/severe threat would be reduced by cooling from the showers. Radar does seem to suggest that an area of showers is building over southwest VA and moving northeast. Socked in with clouds the whole ride down from PA to DC. NAM looks like it's out to lunch as is usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 New HRRR definitely more bullish with the squall line later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 06z HI-RES NAM really broke up the t-storms this evening, but it still likes the idea of 30-35 mph sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 There are some peeks of sun out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 A tiny bit of blue sky trying to push through the cloud deck in downtown Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ahhhh...the sun obs have begun. NAM is basically a dry frontal passage here with a stiff breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ahhhh...the sun obs have begun. NAM is basically a dry frontal passage here with a stiff breezeWouldn't expect anything different. Even the HRRRR has just a ugly looking line of showers pushing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Wouldn't expect anything different. Even the HRRRR has just a ugly looking line of showers pushing through. This has phail all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This has phail all over it. There should be some good wind obs tonight though. We should all gust into the 40's for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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