Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The Euro is impressed, showing a 979mb low just NW of PHL at 00z Thursday. yeah even the weaker models are pretty impressive for around here. usually when you get a 500mb vort aligned along the front like that you get a big squall line though, at least from what i recall. soundings are close at times but never quite get full turning plus there is some kink in the hodos. hard to say though since there will probably be some more localized backing at the sfc and we do tend to get a fair amount of tornadoes out of overall linear modes around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The Euro is awesome..bombs out right as it enters our region with uber winds/CAA right behind the squall line/front leading to a 35 degree temp plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LWX HWO as of 2:15pm mentions potential for damaging wind gusts tomorrow and the potential for isolated tornadoes also being possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LWX HWO as of 2:15pm mentions potential for damaging wind gusts tomorrow and the potential for isolated tornadoes also being possible i.e., standard language.. pretty much everyone says the same thing every storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 i.e., standard language.. pretty much everyone says the same thing every storm threat. They don't usually add the isolated tornadoes part unless they feel like there is a good chance IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 They don't usually add the isolated tornadoes part unless they feel like there is a good chance IMO... until it shows up in the zones - meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Tomorrow looks great for a line of storms through the CWA. The strong temp gradient from ahead of front to 50 miles behind front is beyond impressive. That should create sufficient lift out ahead of front to ignite some storms. Using the 12z 925mb Hi-Res NAM you can draw a triangle with a separation of the cold and warm front and extend out 2 isobars to predict possible area of storm development. Southern Pa down to VA looks like a prime location. Plus, the strong PVA at 500 entering the area is beyond beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The NAM meteogram is pretty wild with the frontal passage. It goes from the low 60's to the mid 20's in 3 hours. sfc-based cape (bottom panel) is limited, but the frontal forcing should be tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 the winds behind the front should be quite impressive, maybe more impressive than the storms themselves except in isolated area unless they max out potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The NAM meteogram is pretty wild with the frontal passage. It goes from the low 60's to the mid 20's in 3 hours. sfc-based cape (bottom panel) is limited, but the frontal forcing should be tremendous. We do fronts very poorly around here. If this one can live up to the forecasts, it will be noteworthy. ~64 at 9pm to ~27 at midnight on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 We do fronts very poorly around here. If this one can live up to the forecasts, it will be noteworthy. ~64 at 9pm to ~27 at midnight on the NAM. That said, the arctic front in January was pretty awesome. We went from 35 degrees to 5 degrees in a matter of hours. The wind out-matched the UHI effect around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That said, the arctic front in January was pretty awesome. We went from 35 degrees to 5 degrees in a matter of hours. The wind out-matched the UHI effect around these parts. Yeah, but even then the actual frontal passage (pressure and wind field) was earlier in the day. I lost 25 degrees in 7 hours. If this front is as advertised, we could do that in 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wooo storms! Boo windy arctic fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 #Derecho2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 #Derecho2014 #TornadoWatch #TokenWarnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Afternoon LWX AFD ON WED...THE CWA WILL BE SITUATED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTORWITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERNSEABOARD. NOSE OF LLVL THETA-E RIDGE REACHES THE CWA AND WILL BEACCOMPANIED BY AFTN TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE50S. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WED MRNG WELLIN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THEPOTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THIS MODESTLYUNSTABLE AIRMASS DURING THE AFTN. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILLOCCUR AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILLTAKE PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN 18Z WED THRU03Z...WHICH IS THE PERIOD THAT OUTLINES THE BEST CHANCE FORSHOWERS AND STORMS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...ENTIRE CWA WASPLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK WED FOR SVR STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATFROM THESE STORMS ARE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE ALTHOUGH A FEWEMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILLBE DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OURCWA. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHOF THE MASON-DIXON LINE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OFTHE CHSPK BAY BY LATE WED EVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVEPRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF COLD FROPA. WINDADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WED NGT WITHNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH MIXING DOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 #TornadoWatch #TokenWarnings Yup, probably will be dammed in with low clouds all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 #Derecho2014 I've already heard that mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hi-Res NAM is worthy. Big line of convection right along the front, 980mb in C-PA by 5pm. Verbatim, the CAA begins right along the squall line, so the winds will continue to howl after the squall line passes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hi-Res NAM is worthy. Big line of convection right along the front, 980mb in C-PA by 5pm. Verbatim, the CAA begins right along the squall line, so the winds will continue to howl after the squall line passes.. Impressive vort max stripe from New York to California. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_030_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+18+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 For the laughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 For the laughs too bad they screwed up that product.. i mean, some shading is better than none but i'm not sure what it means anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 too bad they screwed up that product.. i mean, some shading is better than none but i'm not sure what it means anymore. Was the formula changed on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Was the formula changed on it?Yeah over a year ago. Forget exactly what they did but it made it easier to get big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah over a year ago. Forget exactly what they did but it made it easier to get big numbers. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Meh.I assume it still works to highlight max zones tho prob better to stack other products for same idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 I assume it still works to highlight max zones tho prob better to stack other products for same idea Sig tor only parameter on that same run gets a little pocket of 1 in here. We seem to be "ground zero" for the best activity on that run of the SREF. Little pocket of 500 cape gets in here and a little pocket of -2 LI too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z NAM soundings for 21z tomorrow at both KIAD and KDCA were decent for this time of year: KIAD KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Sig tor only parameter on that same run gets a little pocket of 1 in here. We seem to be "ground zero" for the best activity on that run of the SREF. Little pocket of 500 cape gets in here and a little pocket of -2 LI too. Yeah, it looks like here and to the west/nw to around the blue ridge probably has the best risk. Timing may matter a little. If it holds off till 0z maybe not top end of potential. But, when chasing going for the tip of the moisture plume usually works well and that's about where we are tomorrow. Dews are still a little iffy.. but maybe underdone. I'd like to get to 60+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah, it looks like here and to the west/nw to around the blue ridge probably has the best risk. Timing may matter a little. If it holds off till 0z maybe not top end of potential. But, when chasing going for the tip of the moisture plume usually works well and that's about where we are tomorrow. Dews are still a little iffy.. but maybe underdone. I'd like to get to 60+. I feel like these lines like to clear the area early tho - so that might be a good sign for it not holding off too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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