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2014 Mid-Atlantic Severe Discussion Thread

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

Ya, the same severe that made me lose power for 3+ days 5-8 times in the last 4 years.

That sucks. I've lost power (more than a few minutes) twice in the last four years. This first was on Jan 27, 2011 (seven hours) and the second was from the derecho (four days).

Did you have .75-inch hail or winds in excess of 57 mph with those storms?

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

A lot of power outages are due to aging infrastructure and poor tree management these days. The derecho is an obvious exception to the rule though those facts undoubtedly exacerbated its impacts.  Mega but small-scale microbursts that put out 80-100 mph gusts are up there too of course.. we do end up with a lot of damage/outage reports from sub severe winds though. 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

A lot of power outages are due to aging infrastructure and poor tree management these days. The derecho is an obvious exception to the rule though those facts undoubtedly exacerbated its impacts. Mega but small-scale microbursts that put out 80-100 mph gusts are up there too of course.. we do end up with a lot of damage/outage reports from sub severe winds though.

Thanks. That's what I thought.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

Posted
Posted

Ya, the same severe that made me lose power for 3+ days 5-8 times in the last 4 years.

That's horrible. The last time I lost power was in September 2012, I think. I was on a jog when it hit and I remember being caught totally off guard. That one actually out-blew the Derecho here.

I haven't experienced anything severe-caliber since then. The 2011 and 2013 severe seasons were both fails imby.

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  • 3 weeks later...
high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

NAM and 4 km nest look pretty good.   980 sfc low in northwest PA late Wednesday with nice push of warm air ahead of it.   moisture still a little limited, so cape not as high as one would like to see in an environment with such strong low-level shear, but at least any showers in the morning look to race off to the northeast and create an uncontaminated afternoon.   The 4 km nest simulates a strong squall line moving through during dinner time - I expect slight risk in the initial day 2 outlook.

 

edit:   GFS a little further south with sfc low and faster.    seems to be less opportunity for heating in between earlier batch of showers and frontal band, so perhaps it's not as good as the NAM, but the overall interpretation probably isn't *too* different

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hosj III

hosj III

Posted
Posted

NAM and 4 km nest look pretty good.   980 sfc low in northwest PA late Wednesday with nice push of warm air ahead of it.   moisture still a little limited, so cape not as high as one would like to see in an environment with such strong low-level shear, but at least any showers in the morning look to race off to the northwest and create an uncontaminated afternoon.   The 4 km nest simulates a strong squall line moving through during dinner time - I expect slight risk in the initial day 2 outlook.

Ya. Good timing. If we can get some clearing this could be a fairly decent event. At least there is enough instability here for thunderstorms and not those gusty showers. Probably 15% wind, 5% hail and 2% tornado is a good call.

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StudentOfClimatology

StudentOfClimatology

Posted
Posted

00z Euro is a monstahh. Takes the low to ~ 980mb over Pittsburgh, with great forcing along the front, and sick CAA/winds behind it. Verbatim, over 55kts at the top of the mixing layer, possibly translating to the surface Wednesday night immediately behind the squall line which is progged to set up right along the cold front. Could be really fun.

Kind of weird that the potential storm (that may or may not occur) on St. Patricks day is getting more attention than this beast..

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow is looking better and better for nice severe stuff. Looks like the winds will be CRAZY! 00z EURO is showing 50-60 mph gusts region-wide. The 12z HI-RES NAM is still showing that impressive squall line moving through, with sustained winds of 30-40 mph coming in after it passes.

 

Knowing that my location is a solid 10 mph higher than everywhere else around me, I wouldn't be surprised to hit 65 mph.

 

I'll report back tomorrow on the wind, if I have power ;)

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow is looking better and better for nice severe stuff. Looks like the winds will be CRAZY! 00z EURO is showing 50-60 mph gusts region-wide. The 12z HI-RES NAM is still showing that impressive squall line moving through, with sustained winds of 30-40 mph coming in after it passes.

 

Knowing that my location is a solid 10 mph higher than everywhere else around me, I wouldn't be surprised to hit 65 mph.

 

I'll report back tomorrow on the wind, if I have power ;)

 

Yes, but I dunno how much we can destablilize when precip is still in the area at 18z

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Decent sounding off the 12z NAM at KIAD at 21z tomorrow afternoon - http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=033&STATIONID=KIAD

 

DCA at 00z tomorrow -- http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=036&STATIONID=KDCA

 

CAPE/MLCAPE ~500 J/KG... not that great, but good enough I believe for storms tomorrow

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Seems a decent shot at a strongly forced line passing thru but may not have much thunder etc.  Winds should be impressive either way.  

 

I'm hoping this is a sign of tracks to come down the line.. 

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

post-1615-0-09263400-1394558148_thumb.gi

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

..THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 300-600 J/KG -- DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF /1/ AT
LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION IN SOME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY...WARM-ADVECTION-ENCOURAGED CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND /2/ STRONG NWD FLUXES OF RELATIVELY
HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM/BUOYANT SECTOR WILL BE
MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES
WITHIN THE SFC LAYER ATOP THE ONGOING SNOW PACK IN NRN PA AND NRN
NJ. REGARDLESS...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT ADVANCES FROM SERN OHIO/ERN KY INTO WRN WV AND WRN PA BY
MID-DAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE
WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD
FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY
THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF
WV INTO NRN VA...CNTRL/WRN MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND
S-CNTRL PA...WHICH MAY HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE
PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR-WIND EVENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
INSOLATION-ENHANCED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR WHICH
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

500mb is a little disjointed but it's going neutral at the least as it passes.  With the low deepening as it passes it may not matter that it's not perfect in the mid levels.  

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Overall, we look to be in an ideal spot for whatever happens. Hodos are kinked and not quite backed enough at the low levels. I think widespread wind is the big risk, but some iso tornado potential can't be ruled out.  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Nice disco... no meh here ;)  1730 SPC Day 2 OTLK.. I could see a 5/5/30 tomorrow if things go right (tor/hail/wind)

 

 


...THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...   THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BECOME   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 300-600 J/KG -- DURING THE   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF /1/ AT   LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION IN SOME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF   EARLY-DAY...WARM-ADVECTION-ENCOURAGED CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH   THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND /2/ STRONG NWD FLUXES OF RELATIVELY   HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE   MIDDLE 50S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM/BUOYANT SECTOR WILL BE   MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES   WITHIN THE SFC LAYER ATOP THE ONGOING SNOW PACK IN NRN PA AND NRN   NJ. REGARDLESS...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW   THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD   FRONT AS IT ADVANCES FROM SERN OHIO/ERN KY INTO WRN WV AND WRN PA BY   MID-DAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE   AFTERNOON.   WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE   WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND   PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION.   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING   QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD   FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY   THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET.   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK    SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES   TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.   THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF   WV INTO NRN VA...CNTRL/WRN MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND   S-CNTRL PA...WHICH MAY HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE   PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE   WIDESPREAD SVR-WIND EVENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIALLY   WARRANTING HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.   HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF   INSOLATION-ENHANCED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR WHICH   SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST   AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.   ..COHEN.. 03/11/2014
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

wild card probably the low strength.. but 500mb argues for a linear mode I think. of course we get a good bit of our spinups in that.  not sure i'd go past 2% tor at this point tho.  30% wind certainly possible. 

 

post-1615-0-83781500-1394560896_thumb.gi

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