Ian Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 If it comes together we can get a tor watch. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 If it comes together we can get a tor watch. We'll see. Apparently the NAM looked decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Apparently the NAM looked decent.I'm not sure we will deserve one but the low level shear is pretty good and the globals have a nice warm sector they are probably underdoing instability. Gusty line with some spinup risk maybe a front runner or two tho don't bet on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 I'm not sure we will deserve one but the low level shear is pretty good and the globals have a nice warm sector they are probably underdoing instability. Gusty line with some spinup risk maybe a front runner or two tho don't bet on that. Yeah...seems pretty climo for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Even though I was initially skeptical, tomorrow is actually looking pretty interesting from northern VA into MD and southern PA. Although they often just get your hopes up, the CIPS analogs show quite a bit of severe and even tornadic potential across the area. I guess it will come down to two things. How much clearing/destabilization there is during the morning tomorrow and then storm mode. If a few discrete cells can fire up ahead of the line, then there could be a marginal supercell and/or brief tornado risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Even though I was initially skeptical, tomorrow is actually looking pretty interesting from northern VA into MD and southern PA. Although they often just get your hopes up, the CIPS analogs show quite a bit of severe and even tornadic potential across the area. I guess it will come down to two things. How much clearing/destabilization there is during the morning tomorrow and then storm mode. If a few discrete cells can fire up ahead of the line, then there could be a marginal supercell and/or brief tornado risk. The past few runs/soundings of the NAM do show tornado potential... almost looks like a chance for some discrete stuff in early afternoon then going over to linear squall line/QLCS by mid/late afternoon And yes, I know its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Pretty decent 12z NAM sounding for 18z and 21z this afternoon at KCHO (SW portion of LWX CWA) Yeah, I know, I know its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 75/70 with full overcast tomorrow noontime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 75/70 with full overcast tomorrow noontime. Muggy and humid with severe storms possible... one last hurrah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 12z 4km NAM shows some pre-frontal cells from DC-SE VA by late morning. I think ideally you'd want convection to hold off until later to avoid the loss of potential heating. Not to mention storms congealing to one big mess real quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 12z 4km NAM shows some pre-frontal cells from DC-SE VA by late morning. I think ideally you'd want convection to hold off until later to avoid the loss of potential heating. Not to mention storms congealing to one big mess real quickly.Welcome to the Mid-Atlantic, where nothing ever lines up perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Welcome to the Mid-Atlantic, where nothing ever lines up perfectly. Home of worse odds than the Mega Millions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Tor Watch coming up for SW VA, just SW of LYH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I find it kind of odd that the afternoon AFD from LWX makes no mention of TOR risk for tomorrow at all. I know its not a big threat, but its certainly non-zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 I guess the NAM decided to go on drugs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Pretty nasty sounding for DCA at 18z tomorrow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 As an FYI, the 00z IAD sounding had just over 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Doesn't sound like much, but the short-term models and even mesoanalysis were both showing around 100 J/kg if that. Either way, the sounding showed some good wind fields and low-level backing. With respect to tomorrow morning, it's an odd setup, the timing is a bit off and the models are having issues resolving the convective mode. The HRRR how shows two new lines developing out ahead of the original line, in the modest warm sector, where there is good backing of low-level winds. I think the result may end up being a tamed down version of today (GA/SC/NC), where several cells get a bit of rotation, but lose it quickly. I'm not sure the tornado threat is all that great, but if convection were to hold off until midday or even better yet, afternoon, then you could ramp up the supercell/tornado threat. Otherwise a very plausible scenario is that semi-discrete convection fires in the morning, kills the instability and congeals into a massive line of heavy rain. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 As an FYI, the 00z IAD sounding had just over 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Doesn't sound like much, but the short-term models and even mesoanalysis were both showing around 100 J/kg if that. Either way, the sounding showed some good wind fields and low-level backing. With respect to tomorrow morning, it's an odd setup, the timing is a bit off and the models are having issues resolving the convective mode. The HRRR how shows two new lines developing out ahead of the original line, in the modest warm sector, where there is good backing of low-level winds. I think the result may end up being a tamed down version of today (GA/SC/NC), where several cells get a bit of rotation, but lose it quickly. I'm not sure the tornado threat is all that great, but if convection were to hold off until midday or even better yet, afternoon, then you could ramp up the supercell/tornado threat. Otherwise a very plausible scenario is that semi-discrete convection fires in the morning, kills the instability and congeals into a massive line of heavy rain. We'll see. Thank you for posting here Your insight is greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Quite the difference tonight on the 00z NAM and 00z GFS runs for DCA at 18 hrs... GFS: straightline hodo suggesting lines (squall line?) moving through NAM: Strongly curved hodo suggesting tor potential and a few discrete sups So... who will win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Quite the difference tonight on the 00z NAM and 00z GFS runs for DCA at 18 hrs... GFS: straightline hodo suggesting lines (squall line?) moving through NAM: Strongly curved hodo suggesting tor potential and a few discrete sups So... who will win? Neither. No severe. Just gusty showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Neither. No severe. Just gusty showers. Pretty much. Locally, I would expect some gusts to 30-40 mph and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Anything better would be a nice treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 616 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... WESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT * AT 615 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STRASBURG TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF FRONT ROYAL...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRONT ROYAL... STEPHENS CITY... MILLWOOD PIKE... WINCHESTER... GREENWOOD... DELAPLANE... BERRYVILLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 TORNADO WARNINGVAC043-069-187-151045-/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0020.141015T1021Z-141015T1045Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC621 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...* UNTIL 645 AM EDT* AT 618 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS NEAR KARO...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRONT ROYAL... RIVERTON... CEDARVILLE... NINEVEH... HOWELLSVILLE... WHITE POST... BETHEL... ARMEL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Update: WARREN VA-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE VA-632 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM EDT FOR CLARKE...FREDERICK AND WARREN COUNTIES...AT 630 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED NEAR CEDARVILLE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CEDARVILLE... ARMEL... WHITE POST... BETHEL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 2 EF-0 tors http://www.weather.gov/lwx/2EF0TorsDCBaltimore10152014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 5 percented! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1904.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 This thread is like a bad fungus, it won't go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 This thread is like a bad fungus, it won't go away. We get a lot of gusty showers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 We get a lot of gusty showers here. And snow. That's why we've had a winter thread since the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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