Ian Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I'm already taking the under. Even getting a rumble at this time of of the year is a win tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 November 2009 anyone? Joking aside, the GFS/GGEM solutions look interesting to me, as progged. Just need to avoid the low-level inversion, as it's what tends to inhibit the kinematically-driven events. In '09 we didn't have that inversion, hence storms became surface-based fairly quickly east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 November 2009 anyone? Joking aside, the GFS/GGEM solutions look interesting to me, as progged. Just need to avoid the low-level inversion, as it's what tends to inhibit the kinematically-driven events. In '09 we didn't have that inversion, hence storms became surface-based fairly quickly east of the mountains. I don't remember Nov. 2009. What was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I don't remember Nov. 2009. What was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 091111_rpts.gif Looks like a higher-end MA severe day to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I don't remember Nov. 2009. What was that? Sorry, I meant 2010. Both were torch Novembers so I kinda fuzed them together in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 No one remembers Nov 2010? That was one of my all-time favorites, as far as windswept rain goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 No one remembers Nov 2010? That was one of my all-time favorites, as far as windswept rain goes. I gather you are referring to Nov 16, 2010? That was a decent late fall event. Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I gather you are referring to Nov 16, 2010? That was a decent late fall event. Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101116 Yup, that was the one. Not much in the way of lightning, but winds were comparable to the 2012 derecho, at least imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Yup, that was the one. Not much in the way of lightning, but winds were comparable to the 2012 derecho, at least imby. Plus the EF-1 tornado in Baltimore that had some injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Euro frontal passage is at like 9am. Delayed even further on the 00z run, now mid-afternoon on Wednesday. GFS is still in the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Delayed even further on the 00z run, now mid-afternoon on Wednesday. GFS is still in the overnight hours. Decent shear and large SRH values, no CAPE per 00z GFS for 0z WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Impressive signal with the 00z GFS-based analogs. Will follow up after 12z GFS/Euro to see if it was a fluke or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Impressive signal with the 00z GFS-based analogs. Will follow up after 12z GFS/Euro to see if it was a fluke or not. Where do I find those again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Where do I find those again? Don't look.. you'll just be disappointed when the event happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Don't look.. you'll just be disappointed when the event happens. Thank you meh master 12z GFS MSLP/precip map would appear to show a squall line or something for 00z WED... decent precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Thank you meh master 12z GFS MSLP/precip map would appear to show a squall line or something for 00z WED... decent precip http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php woosnow and this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Not a fan of the earlier phase/occlusion on the 12z GFS. Hoping the 18z slows that process down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 NAM says tuesday is a go. Decent CAPE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 NAM says tuesday is a go. Decent CAPE as well. #tropicalconnection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 12z CIPS run at 72 hours spitting out some impressive analogs. Probably won't lead to much in the end. Fun to look at though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 We could use a good 3" - 5" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 12z CIPS run at 72 hours spitting out some impressive analogs. Probably won't lead to much in the end. Fun to look at though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Am I looking at it wrong, or does the 12z NAM based on soundings and the hodo and low LCL's suggest a TOR risk Wed afternoon? 12z GFS seems to lend some credence to the threat with decent hodo/SRH, ~1100 SBCAPE, and 45 to 50 kts 0-6m shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Am I looking at it wrong, or does the 12z NAM based on soundings and the hodo and low LCL's suggest a TOR risk Wed afternoon? 12z GFS seems to lend some credence to the threat with decent hodo/SRH, ~1100 SBCAPE, and 45 to 50 kts 0-6m shear Somewhat yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 First time for it to have it over us --this is 9z SREF... 15z is coming in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 15z SREF Oct13201415zSREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif Is this meh or legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Is this meh or legit? Probably meh, but its making me take some notice of it. 18z NAM sounding at 21z WED for DCA was decent... and some of the other severe probs on the 15z SREFs were good enough to me. I could see a low end SLGT for us on the new Day 2 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Probably meh, but its making me take some notice of it. 18z NAM sounding at 21z WED for DCA was decent... and some of the other severe probs on the 15z SREFs were good enough to me. I could see a low end SLGT for us on the new Day 2 OTLK We haven't seen that in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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