dailylurker Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 At this point in the game. I'm just hoping we get some rain. Seems we can't even do that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Until next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 What is that a map of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 What is that a map of? Tornado warning density over the last decade. There have actually been zero in that white spot. TerpWeather did this earlier in the year for CWG too, figured it was a good map to test to see if I was doing it right heh: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/21/highlighting-possible-d-c-region-tornado-hotspots-using-warnings-and-tracks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Very interesting. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Tornado warning density over the last decade. There have actually been zero in that white spot. TerpWeather did this earlier in the year for CWG too, figured it was a good map to test to see if I was doing it right heh: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/21/highlighting-possible-d-c-region-tornado-hotspots-using-warnings-and-tracks/ Haha, that's fantastic. We're due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Until next year. Untitled-1.jpg Any chance you could share the GIS file with me? I'd be willing to swap with anything you needed. (floodplains, roads, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yeah sure shoot me a PM with your email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Slight chance of a token warning tonight? Shear and hodo are impressive.... need some more instability though and hopefully no inversion tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Where was this pattern during the spring, neg tilted trough, decent MLcape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 If any storm can get rooted in the surface, I would surmise that there could be a brief tor threat tonight, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 If any storm can get rooted in the surface, I would surmise that there could be a brief tor threat tonight, yes? Mostly east of the bay, DC appears to unfortunately miss out on the southeasterly shear. I guess this is not really instability driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Mostly east of the bay, DC appears to unfortunately miss out on the southeasterly shear. I guess this is not really instability driven. Some RAP runs I looked at earlier had a similar look at range. Almost seemed like the low terrain and the Bay helped to enhance east of the area. Some of the good values still got to like the extreme western shore of the bay on those runs, though. I'll be surprised if anything happens in our immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 1630z OTLK has 5% hail contour along and just west of I-81 corridor... 5% wind for N VA/DC/MD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Looking at the HRRR, after the current batch of showers and maybe another one around 7-8PM, it has a more interesting band of organized showers (thunder??) arrving around midnight. There is a signal of strong (although sub-severe) winds with it, although it's admittedly weakening as it moves through the DC Metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Updated HWO mentions chance of some damaging wind gusts this evening... plus LWX now says that Skywarn activation may be needed tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1822.html Wish that would come more eastward... wishful thinking I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Good grief, I thought we've seen the last of severe weather until Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Well interesting enough IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Local models show just enough interest in tonight as well... esp the ARW4N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Still looks interesting to me... grasping at straws I know... I just want some T and L really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 wrf_reflectivity_10-7-14.gif Still looks interesting to me... grasping at straws I know... I just want some T and L really Can you show the frame that's even closer to missing leesburg...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Can you show the frame that's even closer to missing leesburg...thanks turn on your heat and quit complaining (dad!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 turn on your heat and quit complaining (dad!) Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Don't know about severe, but that's some hefty rain down around C-Ville. Hope NPZ doesn't look at radar. Radar looks healthy to the west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 next week bump for yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 next week bump for yoda For Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 For Wednesday? yeah or tuesday.. or gusty rain showers overnight tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 yeah or tuesday.. or gusty rain showers overnight tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Euro frontal passage is at like 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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