Ian Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 3 out of 4 mehs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 It's plenty wet, but sure hard to see much severe potential at current up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 The HRRR seems to like the idea that the heavy rain will shut off by early afternoon with a nice break, and it does suggest some destabilization this afternoon around here. That said, if taken literally, a line will form to the west in the late afternoon hours and not really arrive until after dark, at which time we're stabilizing again. FYI: NCEP is now running the HRRR in parallel, and it's available earlier than the ESRL version. It's also less subject to postponed or truncated runs. Graphics are available at http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRncep/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 I think we're probably toast. We needed rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 3 reports of cars stuck in water near DC / Montgomery County line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Is there some rotation in western AA Co in that cell? Last few frames have looked like a slight couplet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Is there some rotation in western AA Co in that cell? Last few frames have looked like a slight couplet...I've been noticing some broad rotation, seeing more of a couplet now around Fort Meade. EDIT: and now it's broad again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 This looks semi-threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Now getting reports of residential flooding in the Silver Spring / Kensington area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 Now getting reports of residential flooding in the Silver Spring / Kensington area Not a good day to be out and about evidently lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1548.html Extreme western zones in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1548.html Extreme western zones in MD BUT OVERALL THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED TOO FAR E FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. flip it for us? see if they drop the 5% locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 BUT OVERALL THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED TOO FAR E FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. flip it for us? see if they drop the 5% locally. 15% wind and 2% tor on 1630... slgt risk still remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Rotation in the Essex/King and Queen county cell in Wakefield's area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Flash Flood Emergency for BWI airport area. 6-8 inches of rain...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 541 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... WESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT * AT 537 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT JACKSON TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT JACKSON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROADWAY...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BROADWAY... TIMBERVILLE... MOUNT JACKSON... STRASBURG... LURAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Is there some weak rotation in that cell? The part in Shenandoah county... def looks like some rotation now... unless Ian says its meh and my eyes are fooling me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Called it Shenandoah/Page/Warren Tornado Warning... decent rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 BWI long term parking lot. WBAL Facebook page has some incredible shots of I-695 closed due to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 That was a quick SWS on the TW for Shenandoah/Page... 8 minutes or so passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Topper's updated the weather to Red alert. Nasty cell heading east to Front Royal, and beyond. He thinks it will strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 TOR canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Topper's updated the weather to Red alert. Nasty cell heading east to Front Royal, and beyond. He thinks it will strengthen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 How's the severe season coming along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 How's the severe season coming along?Well, I saw lightning twice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Well, I saw lightning twice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 The only thing this area doesn't suck at is flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Thursday? NAM at least has some decent instability and shear. Maybe a 15%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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