Eskimo Joe Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Thanks. WxBell color ramp seems deceptive. Only 35dbz is orange? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 It is pretty gnarly. Giant comma! hires_ref_washdc_58 (2).png And reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 It is pretty gnarly. Giant comma! hires_ref_washdc_58 (2).png I am near the middle of the comma... should I prepare now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 From the updated LWX HWO - talking 'naders THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLYDAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. SCATTEREDTHUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OFPRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Excellent disco from LWX this afternoon AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC254 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL TODAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILLPERSIST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THEMTNS TO THE LOW 80S NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSUREWILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SRLYTONIGHT. DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING ANDSRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN HIGHER DEWPTS AS WELL AS WARMERTEMPS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAYAFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO UPSTREAM DISTURBANCESREACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROUGH TO FORM. A SHORTWAVETROUGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSSIA-IL WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TOWEAKEN BUT WITH THE SRLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONSINTO THE REGION A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDSAND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BEPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR SAT AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILLWANE TOWARDS SUNSET.A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAYWHILE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THEMIDWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATEEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATESATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIESPERTAINING TO THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL MCS SUNDAY MORNING WHICHWILL THEN IMPACT THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE INSTABILITYTHE MID- ATLANTIC GAINS ON SUNDAY.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNMORNING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-ATLANTICSUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLDFRONT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM PA TO OHIO TO MO. AS THE STRONGSHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARS SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF INSTABILITY THEREGION GETS WITH THE DEPARTING MCS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY... SEVERESTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS OF DMG WINDS LARGE HAILISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ARANGE OF CAPE SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH 500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE.ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE SUNDAYAND HODOGRAPHS BECOME LINEAR WITH 40-50 KTS AT 10-15K FEET. ASTRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON ANDEVENING.OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ACROSSOH/PA/NY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OFPRODUCING TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 Discuss Sat/Sun here - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44162-726-27-severe-threat-discussion-and-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 See text and no Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 See text and no Yoda Only when there is a SLGT risk does the great Yoda appear LWX seemed to think perhaps we will see a higher chance of severe (i.e. few storms vs isolated ones) due to more instability on local models per updated morning disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Only when there is a SLGT risk does the great Yoda appear LWX seemed to think perhaps we will see a higher chance of severe (i.e. few storms vs isolated ones) due to more instability on local models per updated morning disco August is pretty close to the worst month of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 August is pretty close to the worst month of the year. So meh storms? No woo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 So meh storms? No woo? Hi res look pretty meh. NAM4 might be OK but it's the NAM4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Guess the date and outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 A 100kt Mid Level jet, 80-90kts effective bulk shear, and dews around 60? Would that be Ivan? Definitely not a midsummer outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Not Ivan, but yes not a midsummer event. Quite offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Katrina remnants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 not sure of the date, but I guess that the outcome was a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 not sure of the date, but I guess that the outcome was a fail. Yes. It was after a big/historic day, and happened since I've lived here in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Yes. It was after a big/historic day, and happened since I've lived here in 2006. Well, given that the air mass was tropical in nature, I'd have to guess that it was probably January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Yes. It was after a big/historic day, and happened since I've lived here in 2006. Looks like Feb 6-7, 2008. Super Tuesday tornado outbreak in south and OH Valley. Fail around here. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Looks like Feb 6-7, 2008. Super Tuesday tornado outbreak in south and OH Valley. Fail around here. MDstorm Yep. Feb 6 2008. Second outlook of the day.. Pretty much no severe in hatched area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Glad I don't remember that one...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Yep. Feb 6 2008. Second outlook of the day.. Pretty much no severe in hatched area. I remember that winter sucked big time and I was looking forward to the Feb severe event. When that failed, I was done for that winter. Little did I know that the following winter would suck too. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 woostorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Moderate risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 No but nam soundings look OK. If we have instability. Best shear may be a bit late as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 No but nam soundings look OK. If we have instability. Best shear may be a bit late as well. 18z NAM looks ok as well... meh MD tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Seems like more of a rain event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Moderate risk? I'm so sorry but my very first thought when I saw this was helllllllllll no. Color me biased in the worst way possible when it comes to svr potential here. I'm currently working through my objectivity issues Are you new? Anyways, looks like some spotty gusty winds/spin-up threat. No real reason for a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 I would bet on conditional SLGT with 15% wind and 5% tor.... 00z NAM soundings would support IMO 00z GFS looks okay as well to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 5/5/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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