yoda Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Nice sounding IMO from 12z GFS for 00z SUN at DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 You can view it on the 200 frame loop from Dupage. true, grabbed it there. nothing super apparent but a solid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Nice sounding IMO from 12z GFS for 00z SUN at DCA: SKT_GFS__KDCA12zTHUR7-24-14FOR00zSAT7-26-14.png decent nw flow supercell signal maybe tho i dunno if much will pop on saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 decent nw flow supercell signal maybe tho i dunno if much will pop on saturday. Well it would prob be late Sat anyway... both GFS and NAM model soundings like the 5 to 11pm time period, which is nice since it should be after peak heating... and hopefully the EML is as good as forecast with ML Lapse Rates between 6.5 C/KM and 7.0 C/KM and nice bulk shear of ~40kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Anyone expect a tornado this morning over southeast VA? I sure didn't. It had a nice front and the entrance region of an upper level jet streak going for it but the low level wind field was no great shakes. Def somewhat surprising tho it could have been pretty weak just hit a bad spot. Cell looked solid after... Haven't seen a good radar from the time it hit. Wonder if it rose a boundary or something. You can view it on the 200 frame loop from Dupage. AKQ currently has a survey team out there. Per the preliminary report, there is evidence of tornadic and straight line winds. I have no clue how they are going to classify this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something like "tornado embedded within straight line winds". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 AKQ currently has a survey team out there. Per the preliminary report, there is evidence of tornadic and straight line winds. I have no clue how they are going to classify this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something like "tornado embedded within straight line winds". Straight line wind damage could be RFD related.. not too unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Two tor warnings right now. One south of Richmond. One north of Danville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Both Sat and Sun look better on 18z short term guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 00z NAM at KIAD and KDCA continues to show 00z SUN and 03z SUN as being full of intrigue... 03z SUN esp since SRH for both 1km and 0-3km are 200+ m2/ with decent bulk shear of 35 kts or so and SBCAPE of 1000-1500.. with sup potential near 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 never great to bet on the 0-3z timeframe, esp 3z. sat has some potential for an isolated cell (supercell?) or two at least.. more than that subject to some wave we won't see for sure till day of prob. sunday has looked fairly impressive potential-wise off the sfc at least.. sfc winds are not too exciting so far and looks like a front will sink into the region.. where who knows. tricky.. but higher end potential somewhere? can only assume sat will be a pa/md border area thing and sun will be central and southern va at this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 00z GFS looks fun for 00z SUN (8pm Sat) for DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 *** 2 FATAL ... 36 INJ *** EF-1 TORNADO MOVED OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ... THEN CROSSED NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHERRYSTONE CAMPGROUND ... THEN MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS RT. 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 Out of town with only my phone... But it sounds from the SPC discussion like the expectation for us is that overturning from morning activity will substantially lower our chances. Sounds like focus is west of our area on Sunday and we might get leftovers from the night before. I'll wait for Ian to reassure me that I can get me some hatching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Not often you see strong tornado and WV in same sentence. Is a nice looking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Severe weather west of here Sunday, southeast of here Monday. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 You don't see shear like that too often around here. Tho we don't really get into the good stuff till like 21z+ on the NAM. If early convection doesn't mess it up we could have a sizable threat locally. I'd be tempted to head west/south if someone wants to chase on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 You don't see shear like that too often around here. Tho we don't really get into the good stuff till like 21z+ on the NAM. If early convection doesn't mess it up we could have a sizable threat locally. I'd be tempted to head west if someone wants to chase on Sunday. I'd go, got to see if someone would cover my shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 I'd go, got to see if someone would cover my shift. Problem is it may be way west.. like the WV/OH border. No idea what that terrain is.. probably crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Problem is it may be way west.. like the WV/OH border. No idea what that terrain is.. probably crap. Pretty flat actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 12z GFS soundings still like tomorrow evening... NAM has backed off a lil bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 look at the 4k simulated radar for Sunday that looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 look at the 4k simulated radar for Sunday that looks interesting I'm scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 A tornadotony sighting in this thread... that usually means something good I believe severe wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 You don't see shear like that too often around here. Tho we don't really get into the good stuff till like 21z+ on the NAM. If early convection doesn't mess it up we could have a sizable threat locally. I'd be tempted to head west/south if someone wants to chase on Sunday. Wouldn't mind getting my first chase experience one of these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 SPC extended the 5% for tomorrow but nothing south of the md/pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 I'd consider a chase but knowing me I'll be too lazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 look at the 4k simulated radar for Sunday that looks interesting Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Link? It is pretty gnarly. Giant comma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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