Ian Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Split yday and today off.. need to stop putting all events in here, thread is too long as is http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44044-july-8-9-2014-storms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 LWX now states that spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening in its latest HWO... the one earlier this morning said it would not be needed... also that today's severe threat will be like yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 LWX now states that spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening in its latest HWO... the one earlier this morning said it would not be needed... also that today's severe threat will be like yesterday's Yesterday was pretty impressive for the areas that got storms IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Yesterday was pretty impressive for the areas that got storms IMO. Updated morning disco from LWX: AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGHWILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN DURING THIS TIME. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SHOWS AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DO FEEL THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 16, 2014 Author Share Posted July 16, 2014 Back we go to hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Nothing really stands out for now on Euro/GFS tho the Euro would suggest some storm chances next week with little waves riding between ridges west and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I don't really see any big severe threats on the horizon for the next 10 days either as Ian alludes to above in his post... sure we could get some pulse or an isolated severe storm... but I think we are done with the severe weather threat until probably the last few days of July/first few days of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 16, 2014 Author Share Posted July 16, 2014 I'm half tempted to just punt until late August/September when we can get some of the more intense airmasses colliding lol. That or a tropical threat of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 The 12z Euro/GGEM both had chances beginning Sunday. At least for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 The 12z Euro/GGEM both had chances beginning Sunday. At least for storms. Prob going to have moisture/instability issues through at least Sunday. The Euro kinda has a little sfc low ride offshore around then which enhances precip. Even into Mon/Tue instability is not too impressive looking for now. Still could be some stuff around perhaps. It does appear that in general we will try to live in a weakness between subtropical ridges which could be a relatively active pattern of at least storm threats.. to be determined if there is shear of any value of course. We are starting to get out of our usual period for widespread severe. Most non tropical threats Aug/Sep are isolated microburst type things. By mid-Sep we often start running into issues with getting anything other than gusty shower lines... meh, the snow weenies are not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 17, 2014 Author Share Posted July 17, 2014 Prob going to have moisture/instability issues through at least Sunday. The Euro kinda has a little sfc low ride offshore around then which enhances precip. Even into Mon/Tue instability is not too impressive looking for now. Still could be some stuff around perhaps. It does appear that in general we will try to live in a weakness between subtropical ridges which could be a relatively active pattern of at least storm threats.. to be determined if there is shear of any value of course. We are starting to get out of our usual period for widespread severe. Most non tropical threats Aug/Sep are isolated microburst type things. By mid-Sep we often start running into issues with getting anything other than gusty shower lines... meh, the snow weenies are not far off. The Winter thread has already been getting a ton of traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I've always wondered why people are so interested in winter here? If there's one thing DC sucks at, it's snow. Imagine seeing a 2015 severe thread started in November 2014...lol I'll take hail, lightning, wind, cool-looking clouds, and sideways rain over a few ice crystals falling from the sky any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 (me at ~11:30 PM last night) Of course, you never know what will produce in this neck of the woods, but I feel like that was about as good a setup as we were gonna get. It was solid for most, but it'd be nice to get one more big time bang before the snow train leaves the station...in September... It can happen, though not too common. One of the strongest storms I've ever seen hit on 9/8/2012. Actually scared me s**tless...sent me scampering into my basement. Wind-wise it ranks #2 on my all-time list Don't talk like that in here. Last winter made us a snow town and we need 100% positive juju to keep that title. #truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 As a region I don't think we are any worse at snow than severe. Sure it varies widely but there are plenty of folks here who get as many good snow days as storm days in a typical year. We are generally mediocre at both with some memorable times intermixed as a bunch tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 As a region I don't think we are any worse at snow than severe. Sure it varies widely but there are plenty of folks here who get as many good snow days as storm days in a typical year. We are generally mediocre at both with some memorable times intermixed as a bunch tho. You're probably right. I guess the great Mid-Atlantic snow-hole disengaged me a bit...that 2011-2013 stretch was rough. We usually get what, 2 or 3 legit snowfalls per winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 We are definitly worse at severe than at snow. On occasion we can get blizzards that rival those of New England in snowfall, although perhaps not in wind. I have yet to see a great-plains style tornado outbreak occur here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 You're probably right. I guess the great Mid-Atlantic snow-hole disengaged me a bit...that 2011-2013 stretch was rough. We usually get what, 2 or 3 legit snowfalls per winter?Avg something like 7-10 events with accum or so.. Maybe 3-6 are grass cover or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 We are definitly worse at severe than at snow. On occasion we can get blizzards that rival those of New England in snowfall, although perhaps not in wind. I have yet to see a great-plains style tornado outbreak occur here. Not sure a blizzard is equivalent to a plains style tornado outbreak for each type of wx here. More like a derecho maybe. No one north of the Carolinas has seen a plains style outbreak and even there they are much smaller. Just not the same set of ingredients at play. That said DC has the highest relative risk of seeing a violent tornado in the big cities of the northeast probably. Two have happened relatively close in the past 15 years not to mention events like College Park. If Ivan's outbreak was a bit east it would have been a fairly big deal for the area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I think the way people define/categorize these things varies too much to reach a conclusion that'll satisfy everyone. I just consider myself lucky to live in a region that features every kind of wx out there. Not many places can lay claim to severe, tropical, snow/ice, heat, cold, and plenty of 75/55 days intermixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I think the way people define/categorize these things varies too much to reach a conclusion that'll satisfy everyone. I just consider myself lucky to live in a region that features every kind of wx out there. Not many places can lay claim to severe, tropical, snow/ice, heat, cold, and plenty of 75/55 days intermixed. This. Where else in the country can you get 2-3 foot snowfalls (2010), 105 degree temperatures (2010), hurricanes (Ivan), and earthquakes within the same decade? And have summers that are nearly as miserably uncomfortable as Houston and New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I'm with SoC too. We're in a sweetspot for the kitchen sink. The only trade is big tor outbreaks but that's geography. I don't want plains weather 365. That would suck. Tbh- I don't want city maulers anyway. I've seen enough footage through the years to never want that stuff close to home. Definitely not in my home. I like my house. We get a lot of nice weather too. Summer heat is short enough even in the worst years to not get all worked up about it. We only have 6 weeks left before Canada starts visiting regularly. This summer is superb with cameo appearances already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 It is funny, of the things we do well, it might be snowstorms that we are best at. I wonder if anyone has a return-time map of 18"+ snowfalls. I bet we would be better off than many of the places that we consider cold and snowy (Minneapolis, Chicago, Fargo, Detroit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 It is funny, of the things we do well, it might be snowstorms that we are best at. I wonder if anyone has a return-time map of 18"+ snowfalls. I bet we would be better off than many of the places that we consider cold and snowy (Minneapolis, Chicago, Fargo, Detroit). I've actually "researched" this, and IAD, DCA, and BWI destroy Chicago in terms of big storms. Chicago has only had 5 storms that dropped 18"+, and not even one storm produced 24". DC - 18"+ (3), 24"+ (1) Dulles - 18"+ (5), 24"+ (2) Baltimore - 18"+ (10), 24"+ (4) While DC doesn't beat Chicago's number of 18"+ storms, DC wins out with the 28" snowstorm from 1922. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I've actually "researched" this, and IAD, DCA, and BWI destroy Chicago in terms of big storms. Chicago has only had 5 storms that dropped 18"+, and not even one storm produced 24". DC - 18"+ (3), 24"+ (1) Dulles - 18"+ (5), 24"+ (2) Baltimore - 18"+ (10), 24"+ (4) While DC doesn't beat Chicago's number of 18"+ storms, DC wins out with the 28" snowstorm from 1922. Minneapolis is similar to DC. 3 over 18", 1 over 24" (28.4 in 1991). 8 storms that fell just short with 16" or 17". Baltimore is money. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Minneapolis is similar to DC. 3 over 18", 1 over 24" (28.4 in 1991). 8 storms that fell just short with 16" or 17". Baltimore is money. Unreal. Didn't even realize DC was that close to Minneapolis. DC beats Detroit as well. Detroit has only had two snowstorms greater than 18", and one greater than 2 feet... and it was in 1886 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I'll only be die happy if I see a Knickerbocker storm in my lifetime...sans roofs collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 We're at that in between latitude and close to the coast/gulfsteam. Tropical can still plow westward without too much difficulty when things are right, great for miller A's in the winter when things are right, and polar air on the means makes it here pretty frequently. We are more like NC/SC in the summer and more like NJ/PA in the winter. Big storms in the midwest(especially upper MW) require a perfect synoptic setup in winter because they don't have a moisture source anywhere nearby. They need a squeezing mech like a developed ULL to get a big event. We benefit from explosive development sometimes with miller B's and miller A's speak for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Wow! I feel better about living here. I've been here my entire life. I have seen some wild weather. We don't do one thing well, but we can do all of them well, once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 You would think that the Mid-Atlantic would be better for severe weather than snow. This area recieves plenty of heat and humidity and cold fronts are typically able to make it this far south. As far as snow goes, it really depends on the year. One of three areas tend to be favored for east coast storms. The DC to Philly corridor (2009-2010), the Philly to Boston Corridor(2010-2011), or the NW of I-95 corridor. Over the last two years a fourth area, southeast of I-95 seems to be developing with Long Island and Cape Cod getting hit hard while the big cities miss to the west. And of course some years we get a cutter fest and all the snow goes to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I'm with SoC too. We're in a sweetspot for the kitchen sink. The only trade is big tor outbreaks but that's geography. I don't want plains weather 365. That would suck. Tbh- I don't want city maulers anyway. I've seen enough footage through the years to never want that stuff close to home. Definitely not in my home. I like my house. We get a lot of nice weather too. Summer heat is short enough even in the worst years to not get all worked up about it. We only have 6 weeks left before Canada starts visiting regularly. This summer is superb with cameo appearances already. This literally made me smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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